基于系统动力学的装备体系贡献率评估方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.01.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

装备体系贡献率评估对于装备体系建设至关重要。由于在研究不同装备对装备体系的影响时装备体系具有涌现性，从而使得评估装备体系贡献率变得困难。为此,在对装备体系结构与效能指标分析的基础上,对装备体系效能的涌现进行了分析,并利用系统动力学模型进行装备体系效能仿真评估,提出了装备贡献率评价方法。最后,通过导弹装备体系贡献率评估进行了案例分析,对所提方法进行了验证。本文基于系统动力学对装备体系贡献率进行定性定量结合的仿真分析方法，可以给装备体系贡献率评估提供借鉴。

关键词: 涌现性, 系统动力学, 贡献率, 装备体系

Abstract:

The evaluation of contribution rate is very important for the construction of equipment system-of-systems (SoS). It is difficult to evaluate the contribution rate of SoS due to the emergence of SoS when studying the influence of different equipment on equipment SoS. Therefore, based on the analysis of the SoS architecture and effectiveness index, the emergence of equipment SoS effectiveness is analyzed, and the system dynamics model is used for the simulation evaluation of the equipment system effectiveness, and the evaluation method of the equipment contribution rate is proposed. Finally, a case study of contribution rate evaluation for missile equipment SoS is conducted to verify the proposed method. This paper proposes a simulation analysis method which combines qualitative and quantitative analysis of equipment system contribution rate based on system dynamics, and thus can provide reference for equipment system contribution rate evaluation.

Key words: emergence, system dynamics, contribution rate, equipment system-of-systems (SoS)

中图分类号:

N941.3

潘星, 左督军, 张跃东. 基于系统动力学的装备体系贡献率评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(1): 112-120.

Xing PAN, Dujun ZUO, Yuedong ZHANG. Contribution rate evaluation method of equipment system-of-systems based on system dynamics[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(1): 112-120.

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装备指标	70	75	80	85	90
战斗时长/min	162	157	152	147	143

装备指标变化	70→75	75→80	80→85	85→90
贡献率/%	3.245	3.103	2.955	2.834
贡献度	5.251	4.859	4.484	4.172

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