基于动态博弈的武器装备体系发展规划论证方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.10.16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

武器装备是作战能力生成的重要物质基础, 针对现代战争武器装备成体系对抗的特征, 从对抗博弈的视角分析武器装备体系发展规划问题。首先, 基于作战环构建武器装备体系对抗网络模型, 描述不同功能类型装备之间的影响关系。基于动态博弈的思想, 构建武器装备体系发展规划的博弈脉络, 评估发展规划方案在不同博弈场景下的威胁能力。最后进行了示例分析, 为武器装备体系发展规划论证提供一种新的定量评估方法。

关键词: 武器装备体系, 发展规划, 动态博弈

Abstract:

Weapon equipment is an important material basis for the generation of combat capability. In view of the characteristics of weapon equipment systematic confrontation in modern war, the problems of weapon equipment system planning and development is analyzed from the perspective of rivalry game. First of all, based on the combat ring, the countermeasure network model of weapon equipment system is constructed to describe the influence relationship between different functional types of equipment. Then, based on the perspective of dynamic game, the game context of weapon equipment system development planning is constructed. And the threat capability of development planning scheme in different game scenarios is evaluated. Finally, an example analysis is given. Above all, a new quantitative evaluation method is provided for the demonstration of weapon equipment system development planning.

Key words: weweapon equipment system, development planning, dynamic game

中图分类号:

陈启宏, 赵青松, 邱薇, 陈甲. 基于动态博弈的武器装备体系发展规划论证方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(10): 3124-3133.

Qihong CHEN, Qingsong ZHAO, Wei QIU, Jia CHEN. Demonstration method of weapon equipment system development planning based on dynamic game[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(10): 3124-3133.

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功能节点分类	红方	蓝方
侦察节点	S_R	S_B
指控节点	D_R	D_B
打击节点	I_R	I_B
目标节点	T_R	T_B

关系类型	装备体系网络功能边
侦察关系	T→S
指挥控制关系	D→S, D→I, D→D
打击关系	I→T
信息传递关系	S→D, S→S, D→D

决策对象	决策变量
待研制装备W_d	开始研制时间t_s
	列装后每年的采购数量N_d
	研制强度K
已列装装备W_p	每年的采购数量N_p

武器装备代号		功能指标仿真值			购置费用/亿元
武器装备代号		侦察 (S)	指控 (D)	打击 (I)	购置费用/亿元
已列装装备	r₁	0.183	0.337	0.451	1
	r₂	0.616	0	0	2
	r₃	0	0.437	0.551	1
	b₁	0.310	0.342	0.276	2
	b₂	0.370	0	0.481	1
	b₃	0	0.386	0	1
待研制装备	r₄	0.825	0	0	3
	r₅	0.703	0.741	0	2
	r₆	0.597	0	0.658	2
	b₄	0.949	0.850	0	3
	b₅	3	0.779	0.668	2
	b₆	0.604	0	0.779	3

可行全时域场景	红方威胁评估	蓝方威胁评估	概率
G1	10.33	10.11	0.037
G2	12.10	10.38	0.017
G3	11.24	12.75	0.018
G4	13.01	13.22	0.048
G5	10.40	10.70	0.112
G6	12.21	12.60	0.053
G7	11.25	14.36	0.031
G8	13.09	13.93	0.084
G9	10.00	10.20	0.110
G10	10.59	12.19	0.052
G11	10.70	11.29	0.053
G12	12.09	13.07	0.145
G13	9.80	10.44	0.096
G14	11.55	10.74	0.045
G15	11.31	12.75	0.027
G16	13.05	13.13	0.072