基于置信规则推理的武器装备体系贡献度评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.07.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对武器装备体系贡献度评估中存在任务与能力关联复杂、数据处理缺乏有效性等问题,提出了基于置信规则推理的体系贡献度评估方法。首先,搭建了体系贡献度评估框架,通过使命分解和作战体系分析建立了“任务-能力”关联矩阵,并在此基础上构建了网络化多层次的评估指标体系。然后,利用基于置信规则推理的评估方法对体系作战效能进行推理。最后,根据体系贡献度评估模型计算武器装备体系贡献度。以空中遮断作战体系为例进行分析验证,结果表明该方法有效反映了体系的涌现性,客观评估了武器装备的体系贡献度,能够为装备迭代更新、作战体系发展规划提供理论支持。

关键词: 武器装备体系, 体系贡献度, “任务-能力”关联矩阵, 置信规则推理

Abstract:

The complex relationship between tasks and capabilities and the validity of data processing are the main difficulties in the evaluation process of contribution rate to system-of-systems. Aiming at these problems, a weapon equipment contribution rate evaluation method based on the belief rule-based system is proposed. Firstly, the weapon equipment contribution rate to the system-of-systems evaluation framework is constructed. By decomposing the mission and analyzing the combat system-of-systems (CSoS), the "task-capability" incidence matrix is built. On this basis, the hierarchical evaluation criteria system of the equipment contribution rate is established. Afterwards, the belief rule base is created according to the evaluation criteria system and the belief rule-based system is adopted to infer the task effectiveness of the CSoS. Finally, the weapon equipment contribution rate to system-of-systems is evaluated by the evaluation model. The study result of air interdiction CSoS shows that this method can reflect the emergence of the CSoS effectively and evaluate the weapon equipment contribution rate to system-of-systems objectively. This approach can provide the theoretical support for the updating of equipment and the CSoS development.

Key words: weapon equipment system-of-systems, contribution rate to system-of-systems, "task-capability" incidence matrix, belief rule-based system

中图分类号:

TJ430.6

马钧文, 张安, 高飞, 毕文豪. 基于置信规则推理的武器装备体系贡献度评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(7): 1519-1526.

Junwen MA, An ZHANG, Fei GAO, Wenhao BI. Evaluation of weapon equipment contribution rate to system-of- systems based on belief rule-based system[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(7): 1519-1526.

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体系结构	任务1	…	任务m	体系作战效能
基准体系	z₁₁	…	z_1m	E₁
评估体系	z₂₁	…	z_2m	E₂

任务	能力
任务	C₁	C₂	C₃	C₄	C₅	C₆	C₇
M₁	○	○	○	□	○	□	□
M₂	○	□	○	○	□	□	□
M₃	□	□	□	○	○	○	○
M₄	□	○	□	□	○	○	○

任务	能力
任务	C₁	C₂	C₃	C₄	C₅	C₆	C₇	C₈	C₉
M₁	○	○	○	□	□	○	□	□	□
M₂	□	□	○	□	□	□	□	□	○
M₃	□	□	□	○	○	○	□	□	○
M₄	□	○	□	□	○	□	○	○	□

参数指标	战斗机	攻击无人机	电子干扰机	ISR飞机
侦察探测距离/km	200	-	-	280
总搜索方位角/(°)	140	-	-	360
目标分辨率/m	3	2	3	1.8
信息传输实时性	较高	中	中	高
信息传输稳定性	高	中	较高	高
最大飞行马赫数/Ma	2.4	0.4	1.3	0.6
实用升限/m	18 000	12 000	15 000	16 000
有源干扰性能	-	-	高	-
无源干扰性能	-	-	高	-
雷达散射截面积/m²	< 2	6~10	3~7	5~8
发动机红外辐射强度/(W/sr)	300	1100	1600	800
精确打击能力	高	较高	-	-
单发杀伤概率	0.95	0.9	-	-
导弹挂载数目/枚	12	8	-	-
目标威胁评估水平	高	中	较高	较高

规则序号	规则权重	能力C₁	能力C₂	能力C₃	能力C₆	任务效能
1	1	0.8	0.9	0.8	0.9	{(D₁, 0), (D₂, 0), (D₃, 0.45), (D₄, 0.55), (D₅, 0)}
2	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.7	0.7	{(D₁, 0), (D₂, 0), (D₃, 0), (D₄, 0.8), (D₅, 0.2)}
3	1	0.9	0.9	1	0.9	{(D₁, 0), (D₂, 0), (D₃, 0), (D₄, 0.375), (D₅, 0.625)}
⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮
K	θ_k	C₁^k	C₂^k	C₃^k	C₄^k	{(D₁, β_1k), (D₂, β_2k), (D₃, β_3k), (D₄, β_4k), (D₅, β_5k)}