考虑动态重构的装备体系可用性及弹性分析

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.08.38

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8): 2347-2354.doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.08.38

考虑动态重构的装备体系可用性及弹性分析

陈志伟¹, 王靖¹, 谷长超¹, 章健淳^2,*, 钟季龙³

1. 中国运载火箭技术研究院, 北京 100076
2. 北京航空航天大学杭州创新研究院, 浙江杭州 310051
3. 军事科学院国防科技创新研究院, 北京 100091

收稿日期:2020-08-03 出版日期:2021-07-23 发布日期:2021-08-05
通讯作者: 章健淳
作者简介:陈志伟 (1991—), 男, 工程师, 博士, 主要研究方向为系统安全与可靠性、体系弹性|王靖 (1988—), 男, 工程师, 硕士, 主要研究方向为可靠性分析、可靠性试验|谷长超 (1992—), 男, 工程师, 硕士, 主要研究方向为复杂系统可靠性建模|章健淳 (1992—), 男, 博士后, 博士, 主要研究方向为可靠性设计分析、可靠性试验|钟季龙 (1990—), 男, 工程师, 博士, 主要研究方向为复杂系统可靠性建模与分析评价
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(72001213)

Performance availability and resilience analysis of weapon system of systems considering dynamic reconfiguration

Zhiwei CHEN¹, Jing WANG¹, Changchao GU¹, Jianchun ZHANG^2,*, Jilong ZHONG³

1. China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing 100076, China
2. Hangzhou Innovation Institute, Beihang University, Hangzhou 310051, China
3. National Institute of Defense Technology Innovation, PLA Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China

Received:2020-08-03 Online:2021-07-23 Published:2021-08-05
Contact: Jianchun ZHANG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

要素协同作战框架下武器装备体系具有可动态重构的系统特性, 既增加了体系的复杂性和交互性, 又使其具有了更为明显的弹性特征。本文首先提出了装备体系弹性多层级评价方法, 确定了组成体系的关键装备要素。其次, 以典型的关键装备要素——武器系统为对象, 提出了基于动态双阈值多状态权重k-out-of-n系统模型的装备体系的性能可用性及弹性分析评价方法。最后, 以编队协同防空作战体系为对象进行案例应用研究, 得到了性能阈值恒定、随时间变化和动态变化这3种情况下的火力网可用度和弹性随时间变化的规律, 并验证了所提模型与评价方法的有效性与实用性。

关键词: 武器装备体系, 弹性, 可用性, 动态重构

Abstract:

The weapon systems of systems under the framework of the element cooperative operation has the characteristic of dynamic reconfiguration, which not only increases the complexity and interactivity of the systems of systems but also forms its more marked resilience characteristic. Firstly, a multi-level assessment method for systems of systems resilienceis proposed and the key weapon elements of the systems of systems is determined. Secondly, the assessment and analysis method for the performance availability and resilience model is given based on the double-threshold multi-state weighted k-out-of-n system model by taking the typical key equipment element-weapon system as the research object. Finally, the time-varying availability and resilience of the fire network with constant performance thresholds, time-varying, and dynamic changes in a typical formation cooperative air defense systems of systems as the case study is obtained, which demonstrates the feasibility and availability of the proposed model and assessment method.

Key words: weapon system of systems, resilience, availability, dynamic reconfiguration

中图分类号:

N945

陈志伟, 王靖, 谷长超, 章健淳, 钟季龙. 考虑动态重构的装备体系可用性及弹性分析[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(8): 2347-2354.

Zhiwei CHEN, Jing WANG, Changchao GU, Jianchun ZHANG, Jilong ZHONG. Performance availability and resilience analysis of weapon system of systems considering dynamic reconfiguration[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(8): 2347-2354.

图/表 8

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舰船类别	状态水平	转移率(1/d)				状态性能(火力指数)
舰船类别	状态水平	S₃	S₂	S₁	S₀	状态性能(火力指数)
武器系统1	S₃	0	1.8	1.4	0.8	35
	S₂	0	0	1.1	0.6	26
	S₁	0	0	0	0.3	18
	S₀	5	0	0	0	0
武器系统2	S₃	0	1.6	1.2	0.7	33
	S₂	0	0	0.9	0.6	23
	S₁	0	0	0	0.4	14
	S₀	4.1	0	0	0	0
武器系统3	S₃	0	1.4	1.0	0.7	23
	S₂	0	0	0.8	0.5	15
	S₁	0	0	0	0.2	10
	S₀	3.5	0	0	0	0
武器系统4	S₃	0	1.3	1.0	0.7	23
	S₂	0	0	0.7	0.4	15
	S₁	0	0	0	0.1	8
	S₀	3.5	0	0	0	0

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考虑动态重构的装备体系可用性及弹性分析

Performance availability and resilience analysis of weapon system of systems considering dynamic reconfiguration

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