关键词: 确信可靠性, 基于模型的系统工程, 联合性能裕量, 螺旋桨

Abstract:

To address the problem of static reliability assessment in characterizing multi-indicator coupling and model error, a certainty-informed reliability analysis method is proposed within a model-based systems engineering framework. Using the systems modeling language （SysML）, the unmanned aerial vehicle （UAV） is modeled across requirements, context, use-case and activity, and parametric views. At the propeller parameter level, a joint performance margin is introduced to unify the coupling among thrust, torque, and rotational speed. Considering both random uncertainty and cognitive uncertainty, and combining statistical testing with uncertainty propagation, a computable expression for the degree of certainty and reliability is obtained. Using a UAV propeller as the case study, the method outperforms a single-design-margin baseline by yielding lower reliability bias and reduced sensitivity to uncertainty, while enabling reuse across new variants through template-based modeling. The approach is suitable for reliability assessment and decision-making in rapidly iterated product units.

Key words: belief reliability, model-based systems engineering, joint performance margin, propeller