基于确信可靠性理论的离子电推进可靠性分配、评价与提升方法研究

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2026.07.18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决深空探测用航天器离子电推进系统中离子电推进可靠性提升问题，提出基于确信可靠性理论的离子电推进可靠性分配、评价与提升方法。首先，开展基于技术成熟度的离子电推进可靠性分配。然后，对当前设计下离子电推进各部件的任务可靠性进行评价。最后，针对不符合可靠性要求的部件单元，通过提高失效阈值、延缓溅射刻蚀和降低电参数不确定性等措施进行可靠性提升。案例研究结果表明，基于确信可靠性理论的方法可有效实现给定可靠性要求下20 cm离子电推进的可靠性分配、评价与提升。所提方法克服了传统数据驱动方法在小样本、长寿命及双重不确定性共存场景下的局限，其分析精度满足深空探测任务要求。

关键词: 离子电推进, 确信可靠性, 可靠性分配, 可靠性评价, 可靠性提升

Abstract:

To address the issue of improving the reliability of ion electric propulsion in spacecraft ion electric propulsion systems for deep space exploration, a reliability allocation, evaluation, and improvement method based on belief reliability theory for ion electric propulsion is proposed. Firstly, carry out reliability allocation for ion electric propulsion based on technological maturity. Secondly, evaluate the task reliability of each component of ion electric propulsion with the current design. Finally, for component units that do not meet reliability requirements, measures such as increasing the failure threshold, delaying sputtering etching, and reducing electrical parameter uncertainty are taken to improve reliability. The results of the case study indicate that the method based on belief reliability theory can effectively achieve reliability allocation, evaluation, and improvement of 20 cm ion electric propulsion with given reliability requirements. The proposed method overcomes the limitations of traditional data-driven methods in scenarios with small samples, long lifetimes, and dual uncertainties, and its analysis accuracy meets the requirements of deep space exploration tasks.

Key words: ion electric propulsion, belief reliability, reliability allocation, reliability evaluation, reliability improvement

中图分类号:

V 43

李婧, 陈娟娟, 张兴民, 贾艳辉. 基于确信可靠性理论的离子电推进可靠性分配、评价与提升方法研究[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2026, 48(7): 2333-2339.

Jing LI, Juanjuan CHEN, Xingmin ZHANG, Yanhui JIA. Research on reliability allocation, evaluation, and improvement method based on belief reliability theory for ion electric propulsion[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2026, 48(7): 2333-2339.

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关键部件	类别划分结果	可靠性目标变量	极限可靠度	可靠度分配值
阴极	随机单元	$ R_1^P $	0.9912	0.9884
中和器	随机单元	$ R_2^P $	0.9912	0.9883
放电室	不确定单元	$ R_1^U $	0.9792	0.9815
栅极	不确定单元	$ R_2^U $	0.9815	0.9835
阴极气路绝缘器	不确定单元	$ R_3^U $	0.9568	0.9614
阳极气路绝缘器	不确定单元	$ R_4^U $	0.9581	0.9626
中和器气路绝缘器	不确定单元	$ R_5^U $	0.9584	0.9628

t/h	R（t）
15000	1.000
20000	0.9984
25000	0.2977
30000	0.0326
40000	0.0008

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