基于概率测度的确信可靠性建模与分析方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.07.32

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

确信可靠性理论基于可靠性科学原理, 在产品设计阶段综合考量产品的性能参数与不确定性, 实现了产品的正向设计与定量设计。为了将确信可靠性理论转化为实践可行的可靠性设计流程, 提出了基于概率测度的确信可靠性建模与分析方法。通过研究功能性能裕量分析确定关键性能参数与性能阈值, 通过理论分析、仿真建模、实验建模建立产品的性能方程、裕量方程与退化方程; 确定量化参数的不确定性, 开展确信可靠性分析, 并计算可靠性定量指标。本文为可靠性设计工作流程提供创新性的理论探索和工程实践, 为进一步说明该方法的应用流程, 本文以某型电连接器作为案例进行研究，定量提出了电连接器可靠性的优化改进方向。

关键词: 确信可靠性, 正向设计, 定量设计, 性能裕量

Abstract:

The belief reliability theory based on the principle of reliability science which considers the performance parameters and uncertainties of products during the product design process achieve the reliability forward design and quantitative design. In order to transform the belief reliability theory into a practical and feasible reliability design process, this paper proposes a belief reliability modelling and analysis method based on probability measure. Research determines key performance parameters and thresholds through researching functional performance margin analysis, establishes product performance equations, margin equations and degradation equations through theoretical analysis, simulation modeling, and experimental modeling, quantifies the uncertainty of parameters, develop belief reliability analysis and calculate reliability quantitative indicators. This paper provides innovative theoretical exploration and engineering practice for the reliability design workflow. In order to further illustrate the application process of the method, a certain type of electrical connector is taken as a case study and the optimization direction of electrial connector reiiabitity is put forward quantitatively.

Key words: belief reliability, forward design, quantitative design, performance margin

中图分类号:

TB114.3

李泊远, 康锐, 余丽. 基于概率测度的确信可靠性建模与分析方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(7): 1995-2004.

Boyuan LI, Rui KANG, Li YU. Belief reliability modelling and analysis method based on the probability measure[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(7): 1995-2004.

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功能	性能	影响性能的结构及设计参数
功能	性能	结构	设计参数
正常传输电能量或信号	温升	插孔插针	接触区域电镀规格
			插孔分离力
			端子横截面积
			端子材料导电率

单元	机理分析过程	机理	载荷
插孔	随着插拔次数增加导致插孔片簧弹性形变和磨损; 客户在组装过程中不规范操作导致插孔变形或损坏。	磨损弹性形变塑性形变	插拔力
插针	随着插拔次数增加导致插针镀层及基材的磨损; 不规范操作导致插针变形或断裂。	磨损塑性形变断裂	插拔力

零件	材料	密度kg/m³	热导率W/mK	电阻率Ω·mm²/m	比热容J/kg·K
插座	TPU 98A	1 300	0.2	10¹⁰	1 255
外壳	H62	8 700	92.1	1.7×10^-8	377
O型圈	AS7038	1 030	0.188 4	10¹³	1 464
插针插孔	QSn4-3Y	8 800	50.2	3.4×10^-8	380
外包胶料	低压注塑胶	1 150	0.242 8	10¹⁰	1 926

因素	下限值	上限值
端子半径/m	0.000 218 4	0.000 261 6
电流/A	0.8	1.2
接触电阻/mΩ	0.003	0.005
导体电阻率/(Ω·m)	2.72e-08	4.08e-08
环境温度/℃	-25	85

参数	接触对
参数	S₁	S₂	S₃	S₄	S₅
接触电阻/mΩ	4.12	4.45	4.42	4.34	4.35
最大温升/K	3.2	3.5	3.4	3.1	8.9
仿真温升/K	3.486	3.766	3.741	3.673	3.681
相对误差/%	8.94	7.6	10.03	18.48	-58.64