基于校正矢量影响因素法对复杂系统可靠性的评估

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2026.09.19

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

传统参数评估法在复杂系统可靠性评估中忽略了单元之间的组成关系而引起共因失效。考虑复杂系统在工程中出现的共因失效和多态模型的问题，提出一种适用的方法来模拟和评估交互式单元组成的复杂系统的可靠性。首先，通过冗余系统建模模拟出内部单元的共因失效情况，然后，提出校正矢量影响因素法来对初始影响向量进行扩展，完成该算法对交互式多单元复杂系统的可靠性评估。最后，利用贝叶斯方法来验证该方法的正确性。结果表明，该方法和传统的评估方法相比，更符合工程实际，且有更高的评估精度，能满足实际工程中出现的共因失效下多单元交互连接复杂系统可靠性评估的需求。

关键词: 参数评估, 多单元, 共因失效, 可靠性

Abstract:

The traditional parameter evaluation method overlooks the issue of common cause failures arising from the compositional relationships between units in the reliability evaluation of complex systems. Considering the problems of common cause failures and polymorphic models that occur in complex systems in engineering, an applicable method is proposed to simulate and evaluate the reliability of complex systems composed of interactive units. Firstly, the common cause failure scenarios of internal units are simulated through redundant system modeling. Then, a corrected vector influencing factor method is proposed to extend the initial influence vector, completing the reliability evaluation of interactive multi-unit complex systems using this algorithm. Finally, the Bayesian method is utilized to verify the correctness of this method. The results show that this method is more in line with engineering practice and has higher evaluation accuracy compared to traditional evaluation methods, meeting the needs of reliability evaluation for multi-unit interactive connected complex systems under common cause failures encountered in practical engineering.

Key words: parameter estimation, multiple units, common cause failure, reliability

中图分类号:

TB 114.3

白丽丽, 刘泽宇, 王靖瑄, 姜封国. 基于校正矢量影响因素法对复杂系统可靠性的评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2026, 48(9): 3059-3065.

Lili Bai, Zeyu Liu, Jingxuan Wang, Fengguo Jiang. Correction vector influence factor method-based on complex system reliability evaluation[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2026, 48(9): 3059-3065.

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评估方法	系统可靠度评估子值$ R $	评估误差/%	计算时间/s	保守性系数/%
贝叶斯方法	0.8972	2.86	128.5	2.86
映射法	0.8875	3.91	15.2	3.91
本文方法	0.9185	0.55	22.7	0.55

评估方法	系统可靠度评估值$ R $	评估误差/%	计算时间/s
贝叶斯方法	0.9058	1.93	135.7
映射法	08963	3.06	18.5
本文方法	0.9201	0.38	25.3

影响因子	变化幅度/%	可靠度评估值$ R $	变化率$ \Delta R $/%
损伤因子$ \alpha $	+20	0.9123	−0.67
损伤因子$ \alpha $	−20	0.9247	+0.67
共同失效因子$ \beta $	+20	0.9156	−0.32
共同失效因子$ \beta $	−20	0.9214	+0.32
时间因子$ \gamma $	+20	0.9168	−0.18
时间因子$ \gamma $	−20	0.9209	+0.18

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