临近空间高超声速飞行器快时变机动模型及轨迹预报

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.01.25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对临近空间高超声速快时变机动目标的轨迹跟踪与弹道预报问题, 首先以现有的针对慢时变机动目标的运动模型为基础, 引入描述快时变机动特点的状态量, 建立一种机动目标跟踪非线性模型, 并证明基于该模型的非线性跟踪滤波系统的可观性。其次, 针对该系统提出一种连续-离散测量插值混合型快收敛推广卡尔曼滤波器, 还提出一种基于聚类分析的目标机动模式识别方法, 并基于目标机动模式识别设计了预报器。仿真结果表明, 对于做快时变机动的临近空间高超声速飞行器, 采用所提出的机动模型, 可以获得良好的跟踪和预报结果。

关键词: 临近空间, 高超声速飞行器, 快时变机动模型, 聚类分析, 弹道预报

Abstract:

Regarding the trajectory tracking and trajectory prediction of near space hypersonic targets with fast time-varying maneuver properties, based on the existing motion model for slowly time-varying maneuvering targets, a state quantity describing the characteristics of fast time-varying maneuvers is introduced to establish a nonlinear model for maneuvering target tracking, firstly. It is proved that the nonlinear tracking filter system based on this model is observable. Secondly, aiming at this system, a hybrid continuous-discrete measurement interpolation fast convergence generalized Kalman filter is proposed. A target maneuvering pattern recognition method based on cluster analysis is also proposed, and a predictor based on target maneuvering pattern recognition is designed. Simulation results show that for near space hypersonic vehicle performing fast time-varying maneuvers, the maneuver model proposed can obtain good tracking and prediction results.

Key words: near space, hypersonic vehicle, fast time-varying maneuver model, cluster analysis, trajectory prediction

中图分类号:

V448.15

朱金钊, 周荻, 陈晓波, 蔡明春. 临近空间高超声速飞行器快时变机动模型及轨迹预报[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2025, 47(1): 244-253.

Jinzhao ZHU, Di ZHOU, Xiaobo CHEN, Mingchun CAI. Fast time-varying maneuver model and trajectory prediction of near space hypersonic vehicle[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(1): 244-253.

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算法	300次蒙特卡罗仿真预报误差均值/m	300次蒙特卡罗仿真预报方差/m²	跟踪算法计算时间/ms	预报算法计算时间/ms
9阶慢时变模型	4 479.96	2.5×10⁶	0.22	0.061
12阶快时变模型	5470.34	1.7×10⁷	0.28	0.051
12阶快时变机动模型且进行量测数据插值	2 439.91	2.4×10⁶	0.30	0.058
Singer	23 263.31	2.2×10⁷	0.17	0.146

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