基于性能与退化规律融合建模的导弹产品贮存寿命仿真方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2026.07.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

导弹产品贮存寿命的验证评估是工程领域和可靠性科学发展所面临的关键技术难题，针对传统试验方法周期长、成本高、性能退化传递规律难以表征等问题，提出基于性能与退化规律融合建模的导弹产品贮存寿命仿真方法。基于产品的性能模型和材料、元器件等基础产品的性能退化规律模型，考虑基础产品性能参数、贮存环境因素的随机特性，实现贮存寿命评估。通过案例应用研究，所提方法考虑了材料属性、贮存环境因素的不确定性对贮存寿命的影响，可定量表征基础产品性能参数、贮存环境因素、贮存时间对导弹产品性能的影响规律，为产品贮存寿命评估提供思路和方法。

关键词: 性能退化, 融合建模, 导弹产品, 贮存寿命, 仿真

Abstract:

The verification and assessment of the storage life of missile products is a key technical problem in the engineering field and the development of reliability science. To solve the problems of long cycle, high cost and difficult to characterize the transfer laws of performance degradation by traditional test methods, a storage life simulation method of missile products based on the fusion modeling of the performance and degradation laws is proposed. Based on the performance model of products and the performance degradation laws model of basic products such as materials and components, the storage life assessment is realized by considering the random characteristics of basic product performance parameters and storage environment factors. The case application study indicates that the proposed method considering the impact of uncertainty in material properties and storage environment factors on storage life, could quantitatively characterize the influence law of basic product performance parameters, storag environmental factors and storag time on the missile products performance. It can provide ideas and methods for assessing product storage life.

Key words: performance degradation, fusion modeling, missile product, storage life, simulation

中图分类号:

V 19

李宏民, 荣双龙, 张生鹏, 黄硕, 赵朋飞, 唐宇彬. 基于性能与退化规律融合建模的导弹产品贮存寿命仿真方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2026, 48(7): 2264-2276.

Hongmin LI, Shuanglong RONG, Shengpeng ZHANG, Shuo HUANG, Pengfei ZHAO, Yubin TANG. Simulation method of storage life for missile products based on fusion modeling of performance and degradation laws[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2026, 48(7): 2264-2276.

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产品类型	模型类型	性能表征参数
机械产品	有限元模型	应力、应变结构强度等
电子产品	Pspice/Spice模型^[19−23]	电压、功率、阻抗等
电子产品	VHDL语言模型^[25]	电压、功率、阻抗等
机电产品	Modelica、Simulink 模型^[26−28]	灵敏度、角速度零偏等

序号	模型名称	特点
1	多项式模型	原理简单、适用性强
2	神经网络模型	适用于非线性及高维问题少样本下鲁棒性更好
3	支持向量机模型	适用于非线性及高维问题少样本下鲁棒性更好
4	Kriging模型	具有误差估计功能

名称	模型形式	说明
阿伦尼斯模型	$ \xi {\text{(}}T{\text{) = }Z}\exp {\text{(}}{E_a}{\text{/}}KT{\text{)}} $	$ \xi {\text{(}}T{\text{)}} $为与应力有关的性能变化速率； T为绝对温度应力；Z为频率因子； $ {E_a} $为激活能，单位为eV； K为波尔兹曼常数，K = 8.617×10⁻⁵ eV/K
Egring 模型	$ L{\text{(}}T{\text{) = }}\dfrac{A}{T}\exp {\text{(}}B/T{\text{)}} $	$ L{\text{(}}T{\text{)}} $为在温度T的寿命特征； A、B分别为与实验方法相关的特征参数

名称	安装位置	质量/kg	重心位置/mm
载荷1	前端面	24	距离前端面140
载荷2	中段	18	距离前端面220
载荷3	后段	10	距离前端面350

参数		取值
杨氏模量/MPa		70 000
密度/（kg/m³）		2 710
泊松比		0.3
本构模型参数	C₁	7.68e-11
	C₂	0.821
	C₃	6 038