基于Sobol敏感性分析的装备体系保障效能评估

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.02.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

现代化作战都趋向于体系与体系间的对抗,装备体系保障能力已经成为影响装备体系作战能力的关键。为了定量衡量装备体系保障的效果,需要对装备体系保障效能进行科学的量化评估。首先进行装备体系保障能力分析,得出装备体系保障能力指标。其次,基于Sobol敏感性分析方法,对装备体系可用度进行敏感性分析,得到装备体系保障能力指标的重要程度。然后，基于Sobol敏感性分析，综合采用幂指数法提出装备体系保障效能评估方法。最后，通过多智能体仿真方法对某装备体系保障效能进行仿真评估,验证了所提方法有效性。

关键词: 装备体系保障, 效能评估, 体系可用度, Sobol敏感性分析

Abstract:

Modern warfare tends to the confront between system of systems (SoS), and the support capability of the equipment SoS has become the key to affect the combat capability of equipment SoS. In order to measure the effect of equipment system support quantitatively, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of equipment SoS support scientifically. Firstly, the support capability of the equipment SoS is analyzed, and the effectiveness index of the equipment SoS is obtained. Secondly, based on the Sobol sensitivity analysis method, the availability of the equipment system is analyzed, and the importance of the support capability index of the equipment SoS is obtained. Thirdly, the effectiveness evaluation method of the equipment SoS support with the power index method based on Sobol sensitivity analysis is proposed. Finally, the multi-agent simulation method is used to evaluate the support effectiveness of an equipment SoS, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.

Key words: equipment system of systems (SoS) support, effectiveness evaluation, system of systems (SoS) availability, Sobol sensitivity analysis

中图分类号:

TB114.3

潘星, 张振宇, 张艳梅, 王冉冉. 基于Sobol敏感性分析的装备体系保障效能评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(2): 390-398.

Xing PAN, Zhenyu ZHANG, Yanmei ZHANG, Ranran WANG. Equipment SoS support effectiveness evaluation based on Sobol sensitivity analysis[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(2): 390-398.

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装备	权重(用Sobol敏感性分析法确定权重)
装备	X₁	X₂/min	X₃/min
LJ1	0.8~1	11~20	11~20
LJ2	0.9~1	12~20	12~20
LJ3	0.75~1	10~18	10~18
YJ1	0.85~1	9~21	9~21
YJ2	0.7~1	10~22	10~22
YJ3	0.9~1	8~16	8~16
YJ4	0.8~1	10~20	10~20
ZK1	0.8~1	9~18	9~18
ZK2	0.9~1	10~20	10~20
ZK3	0.85~1	10~18	10~18

装备	权重(用Sobol敏感性分析法确定权重)
装备	X₄/km	X₅/(km/h)	X₆/min	X₇/%	X₈/%	X₉/km	X₁₀/(km/h)	X₁₁/%	X₁₂/%
LJ1	600~800	65~70	100~240	92~95	90~93	750~800	65~70	90~93	95~98
LJ2	700~800	60~75	120~240	83~90	91~95	700~800	60~75	80~86	90~95
LJ3	650~800	60~70	130~240	90~93	95~98	750~800	60~70	93~97	90~96
YJ1	600~850	65~80	120~200	85~88	90~95	600~700	65~80	80~85	95~98
YJ2	600~800	60~80	120~200	83~88	90~94	700~750	60~80	95~98	90~94
YJ3	620~810	60~70	100~240	92~96	95~98	700~800	60~70	90~96	93~97
YJ4	630~800	60~75	150~240	96~99	91~95	700~850	60~75	95~98	93~96
ZK1	630~800	60~75	150~240	92~95	87~91	650~800	60~70	90~95	80~97
ZK2	600~800	60~80	120~240	90~95	86~90	750~850	60~80	90~96	90~95
ZK3	700~800	60~70	150~250	91~96	92~98	700~800	60~70	95~99	90~94

装备	权重(用Sobol敏感性分析法确定权重)
装备	X₁₃/min	X₁₄/km	X₁₅/(km/h)	X₁₆/min	X₁₇/km	X₁₈/(km/h)	X₁₉/%	X₂₀/%
LJ1	5~10	600~800	60~80	8~12	700~800	60~80	91~95	95~98
LJ2	6~10	800~1 000	60~80	10~12	600~800	60~80	93~96	90~96
LJ3	4~10	800~1 000	60~80	8~12	700~900	60~80	92~96	96~99
YJ1	5~10	900~1 000	60~80	6~12	700~800	60~80	90~94	97~99
YJ2	8~10	800~900	60~80	10~12	600~700	60~80	90~97	93~97
YJ3	6~10	800~1 000	60~80	10~15	500~600	60~80	94~96	91~97
YJ4	5~10	800~950	60~80	8~12	700~800	60~80	91~95	89~96
ZK1	8~10	800~900	60~80	8~16	600~800	60~80	92~96	90~95
ZK2	4~10	700~800	60~80	10~20	700~800	60~80	91~96	92~97
ZK3	4~10	800~900	60~80	10~15	600~800	60~80	90~95	86~93

装备	权重(用Sobol敏感性分析法确定权重)
装备	X₂₁/s	X₂₂/s	X₂₃/min	X₂₄/s	X₂₅/s	X₂₆/min
LJ1	10~30	100~200	5~8	10~18	100~140	10~14
LJ2	5~20	50~200	5~8	4~14	80~180	6~8
LJ3	10~18	80~160	6~8	5~17	50~150	7~12
YJ1	6~12	60~120	5~10	6~14	80~180	5~13
YJ2	10~20	100~180	5~9	6~15	80~160	5~8
YJ3	8~20	100~300	6~12	7~18	40~120	5~8
YJ4	5~15	60~200	10~14	10~18	60~120	6~8
ZK1	10~20	100~180	6~8	6~12	100~180	5~10
ZK2	6~20	80~180	7~12	10~20	100~300	5~9
ZK3	8~16	50~150	5~13	8~20	60~120	6~12

装备	S_X₁	S_X₂	S_X₃
LJ1	0.401	0.289	0.331
LJ2	0.383	0.361	0.402
LJ3	0.421	0.261	0.303
YJ1	0.438	0.298	0.271
YJ2	0.501	0.303	0.291
YJ3	0.523	0.289	0.381
YJ4	0.462	0.389	0.370
ZK1	0.503	0.390	0.388
ZK2	0.469	0.399	0.396
ZK3	0.479	0.359	0.371