地空导弹装备高原训练安全风险评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.03.020

Abstract

Abstract:

In the circumstance of training on plateau, surface-to-air missile equipment faces lots of risk factors of randomness and fuzziness. In view of this problem, the main risk factors affecting the plateau training security of surface-to-air missile equipment are analyzed, considering its operational process and the plateau environment. Then a security risk assessment index system is built. The cloud model is introduced on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The randomness and fuzziness of risk were are reflected through the entropy and hyper entropy of the cloud model. A cloud model based security risk assessment method of plateau training for surface-to-air missile equipment is proposed. Finally, the case analysis verifies the practicability of the method. The research results can provide reference for risk control.

Key words: surface-to-air missile equipment, plateau, training security risk, cloud model, assessment

CLC Number:

N945

Jiakun LI, Yanbin LI, Yafei SONG. Security risk assessment of plateau training for surface-to-air missile equipment[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(3): 653-659.

Figures/Tables 14

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Table 1

Table 2

Fig.4

Table 3

Table 4

Fig.5

Fig.6

Fig.7

Fig.8

Fig.9

Fig.10

References 18

1	赵风东, 张文宝, 岳文忠. 高寒地区雷达装备保障问题研究[J]. 装备环境工程, 2016, 10 (6): 130- 134.
	ZHAO F D , ZAHNG W B , YUE W Z . Radar equipment support in plateau cold area[J]. Equipment Environmental Engineering, 2016, 13 (6): 130- 134.
2	高强, 庞志兵, 魏赫. 高原高寒环境对武器装备的影响研究[J]. 装备环境工程, 2013, 30 (7): 118- 122.
	GAO Q , PANG Z B , WEI H . Performance of weapon equipment influenced by plateau and high cold environment and its study[J]. Equipment Environmental Engineering, 2013, 30 (7): 118- 122.
3	RAUSAND M . Risk assessment: theory, methods, and applications[M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2013: 153- 202.
4	RAUSAND M , UTNE I B . Product safety-principles and practices in s life cycle perspective[J]. Safety Science, 2009, 47 (7): 939- 947. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2008.10.004
5	SCHULTZ J V. A framework for military decision making under risks[D]. Alabama: Air University Press, 1997, 28-58.
6	王玮, 余家祥, 杨绍清, 等. 信息化海上编队作战决心方案风险评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2016, 38 (3): 569- 574.
	WANG W , YU J X , YANG S Q , et al. Operation resolution scheme risk assessment for informationized warship formation at sea[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2016, 38 (3): 569- 574.
7	刘佳琳.模糊统计决策理论基础上的大型工程项目风险评估方法研究[D].长春:吉林大学, 2013.
	LIU J L. Study on risk analysis of large engineering project method based on fuzzy statistics decision theory[D]. Changchun: Jilin University, 2013.
8	刘章龙, 赵徐成, 胡涛. 基于高原环境的保障装备适应性技术研究[J]. 装备环境工程, 2016, 13 (2): 34- 38.
	LIU Z L , ZHAO X C , HU T . Adaptive technology of support equipment based on plateau environment[J]. Equipment Environmental Engineering, 2016, 13 (2): 34- 38.
9	董素荣, 刘瑞林, 周广猛, 等. 高原环境对机动装备性能影响的试验研究[J]. 军事交通学院学报, 2016, 18 (8): 46- 51.
	DONG S R , LIU R L , ZHOU G M , et al. Experimental study on effects of plateau environment on mobile equipment performance[J]. Military Transportation University, 2016, 18 (8): 46- 51.
10	董沛, 郭小川, 李刚林, 等. 高原环境对车辆与油品的影响[J]. 兵器装备工程学报, 2016, 37 (1): 92- 96.
	DONG P , GUO X C , LI G L , et al. Influence of plateau environment on the vehicle power and oil[J]. Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering, 2016, 37 (1): 92- 96.
11	冶运涛, 梁犁丽, 曹引, 等. 基于Vague集和云模型的河湖水系连通工程规划布局方案优选及排序方法[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2017, 37 (7): 1926- 1936.
	YE Y T , LIANG L L , CAO Y , et al. Optimization and sorting method of the engineering layout scheme for interconnected river system network based on Vague set and cloud model[J]. Systems Engineering Theory and Practice, 2017, 37 (7): 1926- 1936.
12	MUTUM Z M . Mathematical model of security approaches on cloud computing[J]. International Journal of Cloud Computing, 2017, 6 (3): 187- 210. doi: 10.1504/IJCC.2017.086710
13	赵坤, 高建伟, 祁之强, 等. 基于前景理论及云模型风险型多准则决策方法[J]. 控制与决策, 2015, 30 (3): 395- 402.
	ZHAO K , GAO J W , QI Z Q , et al. Multi-criteria risky-decision -making approach based on prospect theory and cloud model[J]. Control and Decision, 2015, 30 (3): 395- 402.
14	WANG M W , WANG X , LIU Q Y , et al. A novel multi-dimensional cloud model coupled with connection numbers theory for evaluation of slope stability[J]. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2020, 77 (part 1): 426- 438.
15	谭玉叶, 宋卫东, 李铁一, 等. 采矿方法优选多目标决策一致性组合权重研究及应用[J]. 北京科技大学学报, 2014, 36 (8): 1115- 1122.
	TAN Y Y , SONG W D , LI T Y , et al. Application and research on consistency combination weights for mining method optimization by multi-objective decision[J]. Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing, 2014, 36 (8): 1115- 1122.
16	高炜, 张庆普, 敦晓彪, 等. 基于改进的可拓层次分析法和动态加权的航天高技术综合评价研究[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2016, 38 (1): 102- 109.
	GAO W , ZHANG Q P , DUN X B , et al. Comprehensive assessment of advanced military aerospace technologies based on improved EAHP and dynamic weighting[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2016, 38 (1): 102- 109.
17	白焱, 张志峰. 采用模糊云模型的武器研制项目风险传导评估[J]. 哈尔滨工业大学学报, 2016, 48 (10): 168- 175.
	BAI Y , ZHANG Z F . Risk conduction assessment of weapon development projects by using fuzzy cloud model[J]. Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology, 2016, 48 (10): 168- 175.
18	赵远, 焦健, 赵廷第. 基于模糊理论的风险评价方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2015, 37 (8): 1825- 1831.
	ZHAO Y , JIAO J , ZHAO T D . Risk assessment method based on fuzzy logic[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2015, 37 (8): 1825- 1831.

风险等级	分值
低	0~1
较低	1~4
中等	4~6
较高	6~9
高	9~10

风险等级	Ex_s	En_s	He_s
低	0.50	0.17	0.05
较低	2.5	0.50	0.05
中等	5.0	0.33	0.05
较高	7.5	0.50	0.05
高	9.5	0.17	0.05

指标	权重
b₁	0.11
b₂	0.18
b₃	0.35
b₄	0.22
b₅	0.14
c₁	0.31
c₂	0.25
c₃	0.21
c₄	0.23
c₅	0.56
c₆	0.54
c₇	0.43
c₈	0.57
c₉	0.32
c₁₀	0.11
c₁₁	0.17
c₁₂	0.06
c₁₃	0.34
c₁₄	0.26
c₁₅	0.29
c₁₆	0.45

因素	Ex	En	He	排序
c₁	2.6	0.2	0.05	15
c₂	3.9	0.3	0.06	10
c₃	3.5	0.2	0.05	12
c₄	2.4	0.1	0.03	16
c₅	7.1	0.4	0.07	3
c₆	3.6	0.1	0.04	11
c₇	7.8	0.5	0.08	2
c₈	6.2	0.4	0.13	5
c₉	8.1	0.3	0.12	1
c₁₀	4.5	0.1	0.04	8
c₁₁	2.9	0.3	0.09	14
c₁₂	3.1	0.2	0.06	13
c₁₃	6.6	0.7	0.18	4
c₁₄	4.9	0.4	0.10	7
c₁₅	4.4	0.1	0.07	9
c₁₆	5.3	0.6	0.13	6

[1]	Wenming ZHOU, Dekang CUI, Jingyi ZHOU, Mingming ZHANG, Anshi ZHU. Hybrid algorithm for evaluation of support capability of storage and supply base [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(9): 2832-2839.
[2]	Xudong SHI, Boyuan CHENG, Kun HUANG, Zhangang YANG. Risk assessment of aircraft IDG based on fuzzy TOPSIS-FMEA [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(6): 2060-2064.
[3]	Xinyu XU, Lunjun WAN, Ping CHEN, Jiangbin DAI, Zhizhou GAO. Modeling of alert patrol airspace planning in defensive counterair interception operation [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(5): 1589-1599.
[4]	Yingqi LU, Chengli FAN, Qiang FU, Xiaowen ZHU, Wei LI. Missile defense target threat assessment based on improved similarity measure and information entropy of IFRS [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(4): 1230-1238.
[5]	Depeng KONG, Yiqing MA, Baohua ZHENG, Qi WANG, Zhiqiang ZHANG, Zhenqiang ZHAO. Contribution rate assessment method of maritime joint operations equipment system of systems for uncertain multi-mission scenes [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(12): 3775-3782.
[6]	Yu ZHANG, Kai WU, Jie GUO, Zhishan GE, Baochao ZHANG. Adaptive sequential track-association algorithm based on data quality assessment [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(11): 3477-3485.
[7]	Yajuan HAN, Lulu ZHANG, Xiaohu LEI. Health assessment for aero-engine based on improved FDOD measurement [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(11): 3579-3586.
[8]	Bowen YU, Lin YU, Ming LYU, Jie ZHANG. Target threat assessment model based on M-ANFIS-PNN [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(10): 3155-3163.
[9]	Chong JIN, Juan SUN, Yongjia WANG, Pushen CAI, Xin RONG. Threat comprehensive assessment for air defense targets based on intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS and variable weight VIKOR [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(1): 172-180.
[10]	Caiyun WANG, Yangyu LI, Xiaofei LI, Jianing WANG, Wenyi WEI. Aerial image super-resolution restruction based on sparsity and deep learning [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(8): 2045-2050.
[11]	Ang LI, Dangmin NIE, Xiangxi WEN, Zekun WANG, Chengxiu YANG. Operation situation assessment of control system based on interdependent network and SVM [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(5): 1287-1294.
[12]	Yunke SUN, Zhigeng FANG, Ding CHEN. Multi-time threat assessment based on dynamic grey principal component analysis [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(3): 740-746.
[13]	Leilei ZHANG, Long XIE, Xu GAO, Tianyu SUN, Feng ZHANG. Research on synthetic reliability assessment method for high-value ammunition [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(11): 3399-3404.
[14]	Jiahui SHI, Jihui XU, Yujin CHEN, Xiaolin WANG. Research on risk assessment method of aircraft heavy landing based on interaction matrix-multidimensional cloud model [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(10): 3026-3032.
[15]	Yawei GE, Xiqian HOU. Hierarchical countermeasures assessment based on logarithmic fuzzy preference programming [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(8): 1794-1803.

Security risk assessment of plateau training for surface-to-air missile equipment

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 14

References 18

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments