高价值弹药可靠性综合评定方法研究

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.11.41

Abstract

Abstract:

To solve the problem of large sample and high cost of high-value ammunition on reliability qualification test, the synthetic reliability assessment was proposed based on small-sample dynamic population thought. For the reliability of ammunition, considering the dynamic characteristic present on research stage, the differential characteristic present on environment and relevance characteristic on similar equipment, the synthetic reliability assessment of ammunition was established based on small-sample dynamic population thought; Regarding the different maternal body problem, the uncertainty of reliability with historical sample and without historical sample was quantified by using the information entropy and conditional entropy theory, and the inheritance factor of historical sample to current sample was expressed with uncertainty-reducing ratio. The mixed prior probability distribution of reliability was constructed based on beta distribution function and inheritance factor, and the posterior probability distribution was derived by Bayesian theory, finally achieving the efficient reliability assessment for high-value ammunition. The validity and rationality of above method was tested and verified through taking certain ammunition as application object.

Key words: high-value ammunition, synthetic reliability assessment, small-sample dynamic population statistics, bayesian theory, information entropy

CLC Number:

TB114.3

Leilei ZHANG, Long XIE, Xu GAO, Tianyu SUN, Feng ZHANG. Research on synthetic reliability assessment method for high-value ammunition[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(11): 3399-3404.

Figures/Tables 4

References 20

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序号	先验信息	样本数据(n, x)
1	基型弹药	部队演习及训练: (126, 119)
2	新研部件	地面可靠性鉴定试验: (106, 105)
3	待鉴定弹药	工程样机阶段累计外场飞行试验: (23, 21)

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