基于贝叶斯融合与仿真的系统剩余寿命预测

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.06.31

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the system level remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of complex equipment, a fusion prediction method combining Bayesian theory with simulation is proposed. Firstly, the simulation method is used to convert the multi-source failure information from the single machine level to the system level, and then to the prior distribution. Then, the post test distribution of multi-source information is obtained by combining the field test data at the system level, and the joint post test distribution is determined by weighted fusion, so as to predict the RUL of the system. Finally, a system is taken as an example to verify the method. The results show that the proposed method provides a feasible idea for the system RUL prediction, and can be applied in engineering practice.

Key words: life prediction, Bayesian theory, stochastic simulation, multi-source information

CLC Number:

TP20

Zhaoli SONG, Xiang JIA, Bo GUO, Zhijun CHENG. Remaining useful life prediction of system based on Bayesian fusion and simulation[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(6): 1706-1713.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 30

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寿命分布参数	参数取值
λ₁	5.7×10^-13
λ₂	3.0×10^-12
λ₃	4.5×10^-10
λ₄	1.5×10^-10
λ₅	1.4×10^-15
λ₆	2.9×10^-8
β₁	2.4
β₂	2.6
β₃	2
β₄	2
β₅	3

k	本文方法			仿真方法
k	点估计/年	80%置信区间/年	MSE	点估计/年	80%置信区间/年	MSE
1 000	5.40	[2.93, 7.78]	12.86	6.41	[3.59, 9.10]	22.33
2 000	5.78	[3.25, 8.21]	12.73	6.39	[3.58, 9.09]	23.46
5 000	5.98	[3.32, 8.53]	13.17	6.28	[3.56, 8.91]	22.55
10 000	5.87	[3.28, 8.35]	12.36	5.72	[3.17, 8.16]	17.80
20 000	5.99	[3.36, 8.52]	12.57	5.91	[3.31, 8.40]	19.04
50 000	5.81	[3.23, 8.27]	12.14	5.90	[3.29, 8.39]	18.95

参数名称	参数值
λ₁	0.039 5
λ₂	0.049 5
α₃₄	0.716 7
λ_34a	0.072 4
λ_34b	0.108 9
λ_34c	0.112 5
λ₅	0.031 4
α₆	2.687 0
λ₆	1.47×10^-4
v₇	1.778 0
λ₇	0.386 0

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Remaining useful life prediction of system based on Bayesian fusion and simulation

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