基于灰色模型与LSTM网络的旋转机械轴承寿命预测

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.08.39

Abstract

Abstract:

Rotating machinery account for 80 percent of the total large mechanical equipment. In order to grasp the working condition in time, the simulation research about how to improve the accuracy of life prediction for the bearings in rotating machineries is carried out. Firstly, the confidential value (CV) is used to quantify the evaluation of the working status. Then, the method of data transformation and cumulative integration is used to optimize the smoothness of the data and the background value to improve the grey model. And the long-short term memory network (LSTM) is combined with a new prediction model to predict the working state of bearings. Finally, the average absolute percentage error and other two performance indicators are compared with the single models, and the predicted failure time is compared with fully convolutional layer neural network algorithm and unscented particle filter algorithm. The results show that the average value of the three indicators for predicting the degradation trend of the combined model is better than that of the three single models. The failure time predicted by the combined model is more accurate than the two improved algorithms.

Key words: rotating machinery, bearing, life prediction, prediction accuracy, grey model, long-short term memory (LSTM) network

CLC Number:

TH17

Tao SHU, Yichi ZHANG, Rixian DING. Life prediction of bearings in rotating machinery based on grey model and LSTM network[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(8): 2355-2361.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Table 1

Table 2

Fig.5

Fig.6

Table 3

Table 4

References 18

1	任利娟. 滚动轴承性能退化评估与剩余寿命预测[D]. 济南: 山东大学, 2019.
	REN L J. Rolling bearing performance degradation assessment and remaining life prediction[D]. Jinan: Shandong university, 2019.
2	郭锐, 赵之谦, 贾鑫龙, 等. 基于ANFIS的外啮合齿轮泵寿命预测研究[J]. 仪器仪表学报, 2020, 41 (1): 223- 232.
	GUO R , ZHAO Z Q , JIA X L , et al. External gear pump life prediction based on ANFIS study[J]. Journal of Instruments and Meters, 2020, 41 (1): 223- 232.
3	黎慧, 张国文. 基于灰色模型的滚动轴承剩余寿命预测[J]. 机械设计与研究, 2018, 34 (1): 113- 116, 120.
	LI H , ZHANG G W . Based on grey model to predict the residual life of the rolling bearing[J]. Journal of Mechanical Design and Research, 2018, 6 (1): 113- 116, 120.
4	ALI B J , CHEBEL M B , SAIDI L , et al. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network[J]. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 2015, 56 (8): 150- 172.
5	石慧, 曾建潮. 考虑突变状态检测的齿轮实时剩余寿命预测[J]. 振动与冲击, 2017, 36 (21): 173- 184.
	SHI H , ZENG J C . Considering gear real-time residual life prediction of mutation state detection[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2017, 36 (21): 173- 184.
6	MOHSEN M , MOHAMMAD J S . Bearing remaining useful life prediction under starved lubricating condition using time domain acoustic emission signal processing[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2021, 30 (18): 168- 170.
7	KHAZAEE M , BANAKAR A , GHOBADIAN B , et al. Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of internal combustion engine timing belt based on vibration signals and artificial neural network[J]. Neural Computing and Applications, 2020, 20 (4): 16- 20. doi: 10.1007/s00521-020-05520-3
8	张继冬, 邹益胜, 邓佳林, 等. 基于全卷积层神经网络的轴承剩余寿命预测[J]. 中国机械工程, 2019, 30 (18): 2231- 2235.
	ZHANG J D , ZOU Y S , DENG J L , et al. Layer based on the convolution of the neural network bearing the residual life prediction[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2019, 30 (18): 2231- 2235.
9	文娟, 高宏力. 一种基于UPF的轴承剩余寿命预测方法[J]. 振动与冲击, 2018, 37 (24): 208- 213, 243.
	WEN J , GAO H L . A bearing residual life prediction method based on UPF[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2018, 37 (24): 208- 213, 243.
10	刘颉. 基于振动信号分析的旋转机械故障诊断方法研究[D]. 武汉: 华中科技大学, 2018.
	LIU J. Based on the analysis of vibration signal of rotating machinery fault diagnosis method research[D]. Wuhan: Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 2018.
11	申中杰, 陈雪峰, 何正嘉, 等. 基于相对特征和多变量支持向量机的滚动轴承剩余寿命预测[J]. 机械工程学报, 2016, 49 (2): 183- 189.
	SHEN Z J , CHEN X F , HE Z J , et al. Characteristics and multivariate support vector machine (SVM) based on relative residual life prediction of the rolling bearing[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2016, 49 (2): 183- 189.
12	ALI B , MORELLO C . Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network[J]. Mechanical Systems & Signal Processing, 2016, 56 (3): 150- 172.
13	张亢, 程军圣, 杨宇. 基于局部均值分解与形态学分形维数的滚动轴承故障诊断方法[J]. 振动与冲击, 2013, 32 (9): 90- 94.
	ZHANG H , CHENG J S , YANG Y . Credits fractal dimension based on local mean decomposition and form of the rolling bearing fault diagnosis methods[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2013, 32 (9): 90- 94.
14	周建民, 黎慧, 张龙, 等. 基于EMD和逻辑回归的轴承性能退化评估[J]. 机械设计与研究, 2016, 32 (5): 72- 75, 79.
	ZHOU J M , LI H , ZHANG L , et al. Bearing performance degradation assessment based on EMD and logistic regression[J]. Journal of Mechanical Design and Research, 2016, 32 (5): 72- 75, 79.
15	钟鑫, 刘文彬, 杨剑锋. 基于逻辑回归的滚动轴承性能退化评估[J]. 科技信息, 2010, 18 (16): 504- 505.
	ZHONG X , LIU W B , YANG J F . Rolling bearing perfor-mance degradation assessment based on logistic regression[J]. Journal of Information Science and Technology, 2010, 18 (16): 504- 505.
16	Bearing data set[EB/OL]. NASA Ames Prognostics data repository[2020-11-04]. http://ti.arc.nasa.gov/tech/dash/poe/prognostic-data-repository.
17	DING N , LI H L , YIN Z W , et al. Journal bearing seizure degradation assessment and remaining useful life prediction based on long short-term memory neural network[J]. Measurement, 2020, 16 (4): 126- 129.
18	SAMUEL V , CHARLES D , JALAL F , et al. The degrees of freedom of partly smooth regularizers[J]. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2017, 69 (4): 26- 27. doi: 10.1007/s10463-016-0563-z

隐层神经元数量/个	训练轮次/轮	训练数据个数/个	x_MAPE
1	700	420	0.025 3
2	700	420	0.024 4
3	700	420	0.021 8
4	700	420	0.019 9
5	700	420	0.023 1

组别	IGM-LSTM模型			GM(1, 1)模型			IGM(1, 1)模型			LSTM网络模型
组别	x_RMSE	x_MAPE/%	P	x_RMSE	x_MAPE/%	P	x_RMSE	x_MAPE/%	P	x_RMSE	x_MAPE/%	P
701~720	0.020	4.100	0.959	0.068	8.933	0.910	0.026	5.031	0.950	0.023	3.682	0.963
721~740	0.017	4.035	0.960	0.048	7.042	0.929	0.024	5.222	0.948	0.025	3.901	0.961
741~760	0.019	3.781	0.962	0.044	7.563	0.924	0.030	4.184	0.958	0.022	3.632	0.964
761~780	0.006	2.992	0.970	0.059	6.054	0.940	0.022	3.964	0.960	0.018	3.053	0.970
781~800	0.013	2.451	0.976	0.102	9.220	0.910	0.054	5.895	0.941	0.029	4.184	0.958
801~820	0.015	2.867	0.971	0.086	6.763	0.932	0.032	3.313	0.967	0.015	1.999	0.980
821~840	0.017	2.720	0.973	0.112	10.012	0.900	0.014	2.750	0.973	0.028	4.024	0.960
841~860	0.033	3.011	0.970	0.133	11.232	0.888	0.026	3.013	0.970	0.032	3.452	0.966
861~880	0.024	2.053	0.980	0.097	9.441	0.910	0.034	3.562	0.964	0.028	3.563	0.964
881~900	0.016	2.007	0.980	0.085	9.061	0.909	0.027	4.767	0.952	0.031	3.791	0.962
901~920	0.020	1.799	0.982	0.069	8.550	0.915	0.018	2.948	0.971	0.027	3.460	0.965
921~940	0.025	1.391	0.986	0.072	8.354	0.917	0.023	3.754	0.963	0.020	2.772	0.972
941~960	0.014	1.074	0.989	0.090	9.132	0.910	0.015	2.083	0.979	0.032	2.981	0.970
961~984	0.012	1.152	0.989	0.093	7.420	0.926	0.023	2.232	0.978	0.022	2.472	0.975
AVG	0.018	2.531	0.975	0.083	8.481	0.915	0.026	3.760	0.962	0.023	3.354	0.964

阶段	全卷积层神经网络		UPF		IGM-LSTM
阶段	x_MAPE/%	P	x_MAPE/%	P	x_MAPE/%	P
961~968	2.214	0.978	1.883	0.981	1.496	0.985
969~976	6.598	0.934	1.080	0.990	1.205	0.988
977~984	4.732	0.953	3.412	0.966	0.637	0.994
AVG	4.435	0.955	2.078	0.979	1.152	0.989

真实结果	预测结果
真实结果	IGM-LSTM	全卷积层神经网络	UPF
9 645	9 621	9 486	9 586

[1]	Wei FANG, Yu WANG, Wenjun YAN, Chong LIN. Symbolized flight action recognition based on neural network [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(3): 737-745.
[2]	Shiyan SUN, Gang ZHANG, Weige LIANG, Bo SHE, Fuqing TIAN. Remaining useful life prediction method of rolling bearing based on time series data augmentation and BLSTM [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(3): 1060-1068.
[3]	Chang XI, Zhiming CAI, Jun YUAN. Observer maneuver strategy for leg-by-leg bearing-only tracking [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(9): 2413-2421.
[4]	Zhaoli SONG, Xiang JIA, Bo GUO, Zhijun CHENG. Remaining useful life prediction of system based on Bayesian fusion and simulation [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(6): 1706-1713.
[5]	Hongli ZHAO, Tianming CHEN, Nie ZHENG. Engine life prediction based on multi-stage similarity of comprehensive index [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(5): 1430-1436.
[6]	Chuang CHEN, Ningyun LU, Bin JIANG, Yin XING. Optimization of condition-based maintenance strategy for single-unit accelerated degrading systems [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(3): 613-619.
[7]	Kui HUANG, Chun SU. Failure prediction based on combined model of grey neural network [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(1): 238-244.
[8]	Gang ZHANG, Fuqing TIAN, Weige LIANG, Bo SHE. Construction method of bearing health indicator based on multi-scale AlexNet network [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(1): 245-252.
[9]	BAI Can, HU Changhua, SI Xiaosheng, LI Hongpeng, ZHANG Zhengxin, PEI Hong. Remaining useful life prediction method for degradation equipment with random shocks#br# [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2018, 40(12): 2729-2735.
[10]	LIU Yanfang, LIU Xingfu, QI Naiming. Hardware in loop simulation platform with super low disturbance torque for attitude control system of micro- and nano-satellites [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2017, 39(8): 1808-1814.
[11]	GUAN Xin, GUAN Xin, TAO Li, YI Xiao. Unbiased algorithm of multiple platform passive location based on sliding window [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2016, 38(9): 1981-1986.
[12]	HUANG Cheng, WANG Yan, CHEN Xinglin. Relative attitude and position control for rendezvous and docking#br# based on airbearing tables [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2016, 38(12): 2814-2820.
[13]	CHEN Jun, PENG Xiao-qi, TANG Xiu-ming, SONG Yan-po, LIU Zheng. Error correction method for support vector regression [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2015, 37(8): 1832-1836.
[14]	XU Zheyao, QI Naiming, SUN Qilong, WANG Tianye. Automatic mass balancing of threeaxis rotational spacecraft simulator [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2015, 37(5): 1124-1132.
[15]	ZHAO Jian-zhong, XU Ting-xue, YE Wen, ZHANG Lei. Missile equipment fault forecast based on data fusion and improved MUGM(1,m,w) [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2015, 37(4): 832-837.

Life prediction of bearings in rotating machinery based on grey model and LSTM network

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 10

References 18

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments