基于Petri网的导航卫星星座备份策略分析评估方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.02.18

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the backup strategy of the medium orbit earth Walker navigation constellation of BDS-3, an analysis and evaluation method based on stochastic time Petri net (STPN) is proposed. By building a three layers STPN model of satellite, orbital plane and navigation constellation, the logical behavior characteristics of constellation operation and the timing relationship of operation event under different backup strategies are analyzed. The availability model and operation cost model of the navigation constellation are established as the evaluation index of the backup strategy of the navigation constellation. Finally, the Monte Carlo method is used to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed analysis model, and the optimal backup strategy of the constellation under different conditions is obtained based on the minimum cost under the availability. The results show that the method can effectively analyze the influence of the different backup strategies on constellation operation parameters, and provide quantitative bais for the design and optimization of the navigation constellation backup strategy.

Key words: Walker navigation constellation, Petri net, backup strategy, availability, operation cost, Monte Carlo simulation

CLC Number:

Xuyu WANG, Min HU, Xueyang ZHANG, Yulong ZHAO, Jiuyang LI. Analysis and evaluation method of navigation satellite constellation backup strategy based on Petri net[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(2): 434-442.

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References 30

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库所	含义	变迁	含义
P112	正常运行	T112	故障触发
P113	长期故障触发	T113	发生长期故障
P114	维护故障触发	T114	发生短期故障
P115	短期故障触发	T115	发生维护故障
P116	短期故障	T116	维护故障修复
P117	维护故障	T117	短期故障修复
P118	长期故障	-	-

库所	含义	变迁	含义
P10	备份卫星等待替换	T11、T12、T13、T14、T15、T16、T17、T18	选择故障卫星
P11、P12、P13、P14、P15、P16、P17、P18	决定替换故障卫星	T111、T121、T131、T141、T151、T161、T171、T181	替换故障卫星
P19	备份卫星入轨	T118、T128、T138、T148、T158、T168、T178、T188	发出替换需求
P101	替换需求总数	T19	获取备份卫星
P102	替换指令	T101	收到替换指令
P103	发射需求总数	T103	发出发射需求
P104	发射需求	T104	备份卫星在轨测试
P105	在轨备份卫星完成测试	-	-

库所	含义	变迁	含义
P00	发射需求总数	T0	收到发射指令
P01	运载火箭生产指令	T01	生产运载火箭
P02	卫星生产指令	T02	生产卫星
P03	运载火箭完成生产	T04	获取卫星
P04	地面库存	T05	总装测试
P05	卫星等待发射	T06	重新发出发射需求
P06	完成总装测试	T07	发射卫星
P07	卫星发射成功	T011、T012、T013	获取发射需求
-	-	T08、T09、T010	选择轨道面

取值	星座状态
取值	P1	P2	P3	P4
最大值	100	100	99.98	99.73
最小值	100	100	99.30	96.01

参数	取值/年
尺度参数	33.80
形状参数	1.46
均值	10.60
标准差	1.10

Analysis and evaluation method of navigation satellite constellation backup strategy based on Petri net

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变迁	类型	参数
T01	确定分布	t=8 760 h
T02	确定分布	t=17 520 h
T05	确定分布	t=1 080 h
T07	确定分布	t=4 h
T104	确定分布	t=2 160 h
T114	指数分布	λ=1.1×10^-4 h^-1
T115	确定分布	t=12 h
T116	泊松分布	λ=4.6×10^-5 h^-1
T117	确定分布	t=3 h
T111、T121、T131、T141、T151、T161、T171、T181	确定分布	t=168 h

成本	取值
卫星成本	20 000
运载火箭成本	5 000
单星发射成本	6 000
每小时单星的储存成本	2

短缺成本/万元	最优备份策略			运行成本/万元
短缺成本/万元	每个轨道在轨备份/颗	地面备份/颗	发射方式	运行成本/万元
5	2	0	一箭一星	4.39×10⁵
20	2	0	一箭一星	9.76×10⁵
50	2	2	一箭双星	2.07×10⁶
100	2	4	一箭双星	3.52×10⁶

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