Abstract:

Considering the battlefield environment and equipment maintenance support in wartime, it is of great practical significance to evaluate the success probability of phased combat mission of the synthetic force for supporting combat mission planning and equipment maintenance support decision-making. Based on the analysis of equipment and the equipment maintenance support mode of the synthetic force, the phased mission profile of the synthetic force during wartime is established. The mission success requirements in each phase of the synthetic force at wartime are put forward through analysis of the combat process of the synthetic force. Next, the success probability evaluation process of the phased combat mission of the synthetic force is described in detail using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach, where some complex factors, such as the tasks synergy of multi combat units in synthetic forces, the diversity of equipments in synthetic forces and their random common cause failure (RCCF) during wartime, the randomness of enemy fire strikes and mission duration under battlefield environment, and the uncertainty of replacement repair time are considered fully. Finally, the simulation and result analysis are carried out through an analytical example. The study results show that the proposed approach can be used to evaluate the success probability of the phased combat mission of the synthetic force and optimize the duration of the battle phase, and it also lays a model foundation for the optimization of spare parts carrying the scheme of the synthetic force in wartime.

Key words: synthetic force, combat mission, mission success probability, equipment maintenance support, random common cause failure (RCCF), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)