多阶段攻防对抗体系效能评估MS-GERT模型

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.07.17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

效能是衡量多阶段攻防对抗体系(system-of-systems, SoS)性能的重要指标, 代表着完成任务的有效程度。在执行任务期间, 外部环境不断变化, SoS效能存在时间依赖关系。针对此问题, 运用拓展的图示评审技术(graphical evaluation and review technique, GERT)来评估多阶段攻防对抗SoS效能。首先, 根据SoS任务执行的多阶段特征构建GERT网络, 并分析网络的传递特性。然后, 在效能结果计算上, 考虑时间因素, 设计一个新的任务有效度参数来体现效能的时间依赖特征, 利用c、z标记法, 以获得关键组件系统执行关键任务的相关参数。最后, 以导弹防御SoS的防御作战任务为例, 对防御作战任务的执行效果进行评估，获得体系效能、作战时间、备弹量、导弹首次击中目标时间等指标数据，为体系编配方案优化提供涵盖更多信息的决策指标。

关键词: 攻防对抗体系, 效能, 图示评审技术, 任务时间有效度

Abstract:

Effectiveness is an important indicator for measuring the performance of multi-stage offensive and defensive adversarial system-of-systems (SoS), which represents the tasks completion degree. During the execution of tasks, the external environment constantly changes, and the effectiveness of the SoS shows time dependent relationship. To address this issue, an expanded graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of multi-stage offensive and defensive adversarial SoS. Firstly, a GERT network is constructed based on the multi-stage characteristics of SoS task execution, and the transmission characteristics of the network are analyzed. Then, in the calculation of effectiveness results, a new task time effectiveness parameter considering time factor is designed to reflect the time-dependent characteristics of effectiveness, using the c and z tag method to obtain the relevant parameters for critical tasks execution by the critical component system. Finally, taking the a missile defense SoS' defensive combat mission as an example, the execution effect of the defense combat mission is evaluated, and indicator data such as SoS effectiveness, combat time, missile inventory, and the time of the missile's first hit on the target are obtained, which provides decision-making indicators that cover more information for optimizing the SoS configuration scheme.

Key words: offensive and defensive adversarial system-of-systems (SoS), effectiveness, graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT), task time effectiveness

中图分类号:

C935

张靖如, 方志耕, 孙云柯, 吴双, 陈顶. 多阶段攻防对抗体系效能评估MS-GERT模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2025, 47(7): 2237-2245.

Jingru ZHANG, Zhigeng FANG, Yunke SUN, Shuang WU, Ding CHEN. MS-GERT model for effectiveness evaluation of multi-stage offensive and defensive adversarial system-of-systems[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(7): 2237-2245.

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(i, j)	活动	效能	时间分布	矩母函数	传递函数
(0, 1)	预警卫星侦察威胁目标	0.4	N(0.85, 0.03)	e^{0.85s+0.03s²}	0.4e^{0.85s+0.03s²}
(0, 3)	目标搜索雷达侦察威胁目标	0.5	N(0.7, 0.03)	e^0.7s+0.03s²	0.5e^0.7s+0.03s²
(0, 10)	未侦察到目标	0.1	N(0.6, 0.07)	e^0.6s+0.07s²	0.1e^0.6s+0.07s²
(1, 2)	预警卫星将目标信息传送至预警机	0.4	N(0.65, 0.01)	e^{0.65s+0.01s²}	0.4e^{0.65s+0.01s²}
(1, 10)	预警卫星未能成功传送目标信息	0.6	N(0.8, 0.02)	e^0.8s+0.02s²	0.6e^0.8s+0.02s²
(2, 4)	预警机将目标信息传送至指控中心	0.8	N(0.65, 0.05)	e^{0.65s+0.05s²}	0.8e^{0.65s+0.05s²}
(2, 10)	预警机未能成功传送目标信息	0.2	N(0.8, 0.03)	e^0.8s+0.03s²	0.2e^0.8s+0.03s²
(3, 4)	目标搜索雷达将目标信息传送至指控中心	0.8	N(0.7, 0.05)	e^0.7s+0.05s²	0.8e^0.7s+0.05s²
(3, 10)	目标搜索雷达未能成功传送目标信息	0.2	N(0.75, 0.06)	e^{0.75s+0.06s²}	0.2e^{0.75s+0.06s²}
(4, 5)	指控中心下令作战	0.7	N(0.6, 0.07)	e^0.6s+0.07s²	0.7e^0.6s+0.07s²
(4, 10)	指控中心未下令作战	0.3	N(0.8, 0.01)	e^0.8s+0.01s²	0.3e^0.8s+0.01s²
(5, 5)	导弹发射失败, 再次发射	0.3	N(0.65, 0.02)	e^{0.65s+0.02s²}	0.3e^{0.65s+0.02s²}
(5, 6)	导弹发射车发射导弹成功	0.7	N(0.6, 0.04)	e^0.6s+0.04s²	0.7e^0.6s+0.04s²
(6, 7)	导弹击中目标	0.9	N(0.7, 0.02)	e^0.7s+0.02s²	0.9e^0.7s+0.02s²
(6, 8)	导弹未击中目标	0.1	N(0.8, 0.03)	e^0.8s+0.03s²	0.1e^0.8s+0.03s²
(7, 9)	防御作战任务成功	1	N(0.9, 0.01)	e^0.9s+0.01s²	e^0.9s+0.01s²
(8, 5)	导弹击中未目标, 启动下一次发射	1	0	1	1

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