隐含非线性退化设备的剩余寿命在线预测方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.06.27

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 1410-1416.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.06.27

隐含非线性退化设备的剩余寿命在线预测方法

蔡忠义(), 王泽洲*(), 张晓丰(), 李岩()

空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院, 陕西西安 710051

收稿日期:2019-11-16 出版日期:2020-06-01 发布日期:2020-06-01
通讯作者: 王泽洲 E-mail:afeuczy@163.com;wzz_4202@qq.com;646297491@qq.com;afeuly@163.com
作者简介:蔡忠义(1988-),男,讲师,博士后,主要研究方向为装备可靠性评估、剩余寿命预测。E-mail:afeuczy@163.com|张晓丰(1978-),男,副教授,硕士研究生导师,博士，主要研究方向为装备系统工程。E-mail:646297491@qq.com|李岩(1995-),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为装备可靠性评估。E-mail:afeuly@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71901216);中国博士后科学基金(2017M623415)

Online prediction method of remaining useful lifetime for implicit nonlinear degradation equipment

Zhongyi CAI(), Zezhou WANG*(), Xiaofeng ZHANG(), Yan LI()

Equipment Management & UAV Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710051

Received:2019-11-16 Online:2020-06-01 Published:2020-06-01
Contact: Zezhou WANG E-mail:afeuczy@163.com;wzz_4202@qq.com;646297491@qq.com;afeuly@163.com
Supported by:
国家自然科学基金(71901216);中国博士后科学基金(2017M623415)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随机退化设备在实际运行中会产生非线性、隐含性等问题,对其剩余寿命预测会产生不确定性影响。现有剩余寿命预测方法尚未系统研究隐含非线性退化建模及相应的剩余寿命分布。因此,采用Wiener过程,建立了隐含双重非线性退化模型;利用设备现场监测数据,更新了隐含状态的后验分布;利用全概率公式,基于首次达到失效阈值的时间分布推导出设备剩余寿命分布;基于激光器实测退化数据设定仿真参数,对所提方法的正确性和合理性进行了对比验证。

关键词: 剩余寿命预测, Wiener过程, 退化建模, 测量误差, 双重非线性

Abstract:

Stochastic degradation equipment will produce the problems of nonlinearity and implicitness in actual operation, which will cause uncertainty on the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction. Existing RUL prediction methods have not systematically studied implicit nonlinear degradation modeling and corresponding RUL distribution. The Wiener process is used to build the implicit dual-nonlinear degradation model. The online monitoring data of equipment is used to update the posterior distribution of implicit states. By using the full probability formula, the RUL distribution is derived based on the first hitting time (FHT) distribution. The simulation parameters are set based on the degradation data of the laser, which verifies the accuracy and rationality of the proposed method.

Key words: remaining useful lifetime(RUL) prediction, Wiener process, degradation modeling, measurement error, dual-nonlinearity

中图分类号:

TB114.3

蔡忠义, 王泽洲, 张晓丰, 李岩. 隐含非线性退化设备的剩余寿命在线预测方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(6): 1410-1416.

Zhongyi CAI, Zezhou WANG, Xiaofeng ZHANG, Yan LI. Online prediction method of remaining useful lifetime for implicit nonlinear degradation equipment[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(6): 1410-1416.

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模型	u_λ	σ_λ²	b	Ψ	σ_B²	σ²	-ln L(·)	AIC
真值	1	0.062 5	1.5	0.02	0.04	0.09	-	-
M₁	1.058	0.065 7	1.69	0.021	0.076	0.094	21.55	56.54
M₂	1.032	0.114 2	1.65	-	0.062	0.172	26.61	64.42
M₃	0.946	0.404 4	1	0.028	0.118	0.156	32.56	76.32

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隐含非线性退化设备的剩余寿命在线预测方法

Online prediction method of remaining useful lifetime for implicit nonlinear degradation equipment

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