系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2023, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 606-613.doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2023.02.34
• 可靠性 • 上一篇
曾婷1, 高帅2,*, 孙富强2, 赖小明1, 李云1, 李孝鹏3
收稿日期:
2022-03-25
出版日期:
2023-01-13
发布日期:
2023-02-04
通讯作者:
高帅
作者简介:
曾婷(1981—), 男, 高级工程师, 硕士, 主要研究方向为航天器机构设计与制造技术基金资助:
Ting ZENG1, Shuai GAO2,*, Fuqiang SUN2, Xiaoming LAI1, Yun LI1, Xiaopeng LI3
Received:
2022-03-25
Online:
2023-01-13
Published:
2023-02-04
Contact:
Shuai GAO
摘要:
卫星天线展开机构装配工序复杂, 主要依赖人工装调, 装配过程中可靠性安全性风险因素众多且相互耦合, 直接影响天线装配质量和效率。为此, 提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的概率风险评价方法。首先, 在全面识别装配过程风险因素的基础上, 构建事件树模型, 并采用贝叶斯网络建立考虑人机环风险耦合的中间事件可靠性模型。然后, 采用人因可靠性等方法进行模型量化与不确定性分析, 并开展敏感性分析与风险重要度排序。最后, 以某型星载合成孔径雷达(synthetic aperture radar, SAR)天线展开机构为例, 说明了所提方法的工程适用性。该方法可为飞船、运载火箭等人机耦合系统的风险分析与量化提供一定的参考。
中图分类号:
曾婷, 高帅, 孙富强, 赖小明, 李云, 李孝鹏. 人机环耦合效应下卫星天线装配概率风险分析[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2023, 45(2): 606-613.
Ting ZENG, Shuai GAO, Fuqiang SUN, Xiaoming LAI, Yun LI, Xiaopeng LI. Probabilistic risk analysis of satellite antenna assembly considering man-machine-environment coupling effect[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 45(2): 606-613.
表1
天线地面装配过程关键工序的风险因素表"
转动轴空间定位 | 框架和桁架机构安装 | 收拢展开测试 | 真板对接及展收测试 | |||||||
代号 | 风险名称 | 代号 | 风险名称 | 代号 | 风险名称 | 代号 | 风险名称 | |||
H11 | 精测基准不当 | H21 | 吊装操作失误 | H31 | 气浮装置安装错误 | H41 | 未开展多余物检查 | |||
H12 | 被测物没固定 | H22 | 电缆妨碍机构运动 | H32 | 基频测试位移过大 | H42 | 吊装操作失误 | |||
H13 | 吊装操作失误 | H23 | 零部件安装错位 | H33 | 精测基准选择不当 | H43 | 精测基准选择不当 | |||
M11 | 定位工装影响精度 | M21 | 安全防护设备故障 | H34 | 天线翻转速度过快 | M41 | 气浮装置失效 | |||
M12 | 安全防护设备故障 | M22 | 铰链解锁装置故障 | H35 | 热控与机构干涉 | M42 | 安全防护设备故障 | |||
HM1 | 安全防护风险 | M23 | 吊装设备影响精度 | M31 | 安全防护设备故障 | E41 | 环境引入多余物 | |||
- | - | HM2 | 安全防护风险 | HM3 | 安全防护风险 | E42 | 静电放电损伤 | |||
- | - | - | - | - | - | HM4 | 安全防护风险 | |||
- | - | - | - | - | - | HE4 | 多余物风险 |
表7
转动轴空间定位中间事件条件概率表"
条件 | 概率分布 | |||||||||||||||
HM1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
H11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
H12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||
M11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
OK | 0.989 | 0.859 | 0.849 | 0.809 | 0.849 | 0.809 | 0.779 | 0.749 | 0.940 | 0.810 | 0.800 | 0.760 | 0.810 | 0.760 | 0.760 | 0.700 |
LOM | 0.010 | 0.140 | 0.150 | 0.190 | 0.150 | 0.190 | 0.220 | 0.250 | 0.010 | 0.140 | 0.150 | 0.190 | 0.140 | 0.190 | 0.190 | 0.250 |
LOC | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.050 | 0.050 | 0.050 | 0.050 | 0.050 | 0.050 | 0.050 | 0.050 |
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