基于技术成熟度的确信可靠性分配方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.01.41

Abstract

Abstract:

Reliability allocation is an important engineering activity completed in the product design stage to ensure that the system indicators meet the requirements. The existing reliability allocation method using probability measures to assign indicators to the unit cannot be verified under a small sample condition. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a reliability allocation method centered on belief reliability for uncertain random system. This method uses technology maturity as a tool to realize the classification of system units and the construction of reliability opportunity cost functions, and further proposes the system belief reliability optimization allocation model and its solution algorithm to achieve a reasonable allocation of system reliability indicators at the minimum cost. Taking the marine dual-fuel gas supply system as an example, the work of belief reliability allocation was carried out to verify the effectiveness of the method.

Key words: reliability allocation, belief reliability theory, uncertain random system, technology readiness, reliability opportunity cost function, optimization allocation model

CLC Number:

TB114.3

Zhicong CHEN, Rui KANG, Tianpei ZU, Qingyuan ZHANG. Belief reliability allocation method based on technology readiness[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(1): 327-337.

Figures/Tables 16

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References 32

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等级	分数	说明
1	9~10	与其他单元相比, 该单元实现可靠度赋值要求所需要付出的成本最高
2	7~8	与其他单元相比, 该单元实现可靠度赋值要求所需要付出的成本较高
3	5~6	与其他单元相比, 该单元实现可靠度赋值要求所需要付出的成本中等
4	3~4	与其他单元相比, 该单元实现可靠度赋值要求所需要付出的成本较低
5	1~2	与其他单元相比, 该单元实现可靠度赋值要求所需要付出的成本最低

参数	随机单元	不确定单元
技术成熟度评分	S_i^P=N_i^P+LS_i^P	S_j^U=N_j^U+LS_j^U
评分分配因子	$C_i^P = \frac{{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{{l_P}} {S_i^P} - S_i^P}}{{\left({{l_P} - 1} \right)\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{{l_P}} {S_i^P} }}\frac{{B_i^P}}{{\mathop {\max }\limits_{1 \le i \le {l_P}} B_i^P}}$	$C_j^U = \frac{{\mathop {\min }\limits_{1 \le j \le {l_U}} S_j^U}}{{S_j^U}}\frac{{B_j^U}}{{\mathop {\max }\limits_{1 \le j \le {l_U}} B_j^U}}$
极限可靠度	R_{i, max}^P=(R_s^P)^{C_i^P}	R_{j, max}^U=(R_s^U)^{C_j^U}

单元	技术成度等级	单元的信息是否足够获得概率表达	单元类别判定结果
LNG储罐	N₁=5	-	不确定单元
储油罐	N₂=7	是	不确定单元
滤清器1	N₃=8	否	随机单元
滤清器2	N₄=8	否	随机单元
减压器	N₅=7	否	随机单元
汽化器	N₆=8	否	随机单元
电子流量计	N₇=9	否	随机单元
混合器	N₈=4	-	不确定单元
电磁喷射阀	N₉=5	-	不确定单元
发动机1	N₁₀=6	-	不确定单元
发动机2	N₁₁=6	-	不确定单元

随机单元	技术成熟度等级	等级满足度评分	技术成熟度评分
滤清器	N₁^P=8	LR₁^P=5/6	S₁^P=53/6
减压器	N₂^P=7	LR₂^P=1/2	S₂^P=15/2
汽化器	N₃^P=8	LR₃^P=4/7	S₃^P=60/7
电子流量计	N₄^P=9	LR₄^P=2/5	S₄^P=47/5

不确定单元	技术成熟度等级	等级满足度评分	技术成熟度评分
LNG储罐	N₁^U=5	LR₁^U=3/4	S₁^U=23/4
储油罐	N₂^U=7	LR₂^U=1/3	S₂^U=22/3
混合器	N₃^U=4	LR₃^U=1/4	S₃^U=17/4
电磁喷射阀	N₄^U=5	LR₄^U=3/8	S₄^U=43/8
发动机	N₅^U=6	LR₅^U=2/3	S₅^U=20/3

Belief reliability allocation method based on technology readiness

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单元类别	单元名称	基础机会成本系数评分
随机单元	滤清器	B₁^P=1
随机单元	减压器	B₂^P=3
随机单元	汽化器	B₃^P=2
随机单元	电子流量计	B₄^P=2
不确定单元	LNG储罐	B₁^U=6
不确定单元	储油罐	B₂^U=6
不确定单元	混合器	B₃^U=3
不确定单元	电磁喷射阀	B₄^U=3
不确定单元	发动机	B₅^U=7

单元名称	评分分配因子	可靠度极限值
滤清器	C₁^P=1 801/27 177	R_{1, max}^P=0.993 301
减压器	C₂^P=1 871/9 059	R_{2, max}^P=0.979 269
汽化器	C₃^P=7 259/54 354	R_{3, max}^P=0.986 545
电子流量计	C₄^P=7 089/54 354	R_{4, max}^P=0.986 866
LNG储罐	C₁^U=102/161	R_{1, max}^U=0.925 787
储油罐	C₂^U=153/308	R_{2, max}^U=0.941 329
混合器	C₃^U=3/7	R_{3, max}^U=0.949 174
电磁喷射阀	C₄^U=102/301	R_{4, max}^U=0.959 594
发动机	C₅^U=50/81	R_{5, max}^U=0.925 341

单元	可靠性机会成本函数
滤清器	$c\left({R_1^P} \right) = \frac{6}{{53}}\exp \left({\frac{{0.993301 - R_1^P}}{{0.993301}}} \right)$
减压器	$c\left({R_2^P} \right) = \frac{2}{5}\exp \left({\frac{{0.979269 - R_2^P}}{{0.979269}}} \right)$
汽化器	${c\left({R_3^P} \right) = \frac{7}{{30}}\exp \left({\frac{{0.986545 - R_3^P}}{{0.986545}}} \right)}$
电子流量计	${c\left({R_4^P} \right) = \frac{{10}}{{47}}\exp \left({\frac{{0.986866 - R_4^P}}{{0.986866}}} \right)}$
LNG储罐	${c\left({R_1^U} \right) = \frac{{24}}{{23}}\exp \left({\frac{{0.925787 - R_1^U}}{{0.925787}}} \right)}$
储油罐	${c\left({R_2^U} \right) = \frac{9}{{11}}\exp \left({\frac{{0.941329 - R_2^U}}{{0.941329}}} \right)}$
混合器	${c\left({R_3^U} \right) = \frac{{12}}{{17}}\exp \left({\frac{{0.949174 - R_3^U}}{{0.949174}}} \right)}$
电磁喷射阀	${c\left({R_4^U} \right) = \frac{{24}}{{43}}\exp \left({\frac{{0.959594 - R_4^U}}{{0.959594}}} \right)}$
发动机	$c\left({R_5^U} \right) = \frac{{21}}{{20}}\exp \left({\frac{{0.925341 - R_5^U}}{{0.925341}}} \right)$

S^(s)	p(s)	R^{(U, s)}B
(1, 1, 1, 1, 1)	(R₁^P)²R₂^P· R₃^PR₄^P	(R₁^U∨R₂^U)∧ R₃^U∧R₄^U∧R₅^U
(1, 0, 1, 1, 1)	R₁^P(1-R₁^P)· R₂^PR₃^PR₄^P	R₁^U∧R₃^U∧ R₄^U∧R₅^U
(0, 1, 1, 1, 1)	(1-R₁^P)R₁^P· R₂^PR₃^PR₄^P	R₂^U∧R₃^U∧ R₄^U∧R₅^U

单元	可靠度赋值
滤清器	R₁^P=0.982 1
减压器	R₂^P=0.945 3
汽化器	R₃^P=0.964 3
电子流量计	R₄^P=0.965 1
LNG储罐	R₁^U=0.910 0
储油罐	R₂^U=0.928 7
混合器	R₃^U=0.938 2
电磁喷射阀	R₄^U=0.950 8
发动机	R₅^U=0.909 5

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