基于确信可靠性理论的蠕变寿命模型应用研究

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.03.38

Abstract

Abstract:

The evaluation of creep endurance life has always been studied and concerned in the field of theory and engineering. Based on the three scientific principles of reliability proposed by the new theory of reliability field, the confident reliability model of creep life is established, and the uncertainty theory is used to characterize the uncertainty of parameters. The uncertainty of model parameters is analyzed through case study, and the results are compared with the probability distribution modeling based on failure time data. The analysis shows that the creep life model based on the sure reliability theory is a new method for life evaluation in the absence of creep test data. Multiple different parameter uncertainties can be considered at the same time, and the uncertainty of creep stress index has a significant impact on the trend of creep reliability curve.

Key words: belief reliability, creep life model, uncertainty theory, uncertainty distribution

CLC Number:

TB114.3

Han YANG, Haowei WANG, Qingrong LI, Min CHEN, Bo PENG. Application research of creep life model based on belief reliability theory[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(3): 1044-1051.

Figures/Tables 11

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参数	不确定性类型	满足分布	影响因素
外加应力σ/MPa	固有不确定性	${\mathcal{N}}\left( {e1, d1} \right)$	工况
温度T/K	固有不确定性	${\mathcal{N}}\left( {e2, d2} \right)$	环境
变形量失效阈值ε_th/%	固有不确定性	${\mathcal{N}}\left( {e3, d3} \right)$	材料、工况
常数A	认知不确定性	${\mathcal{N}}\left( {e4, d4} \right)$	材料、认知
蠕变应力指数n	认知不确定性	${\mathcal{N}}\left( {e5, d5} \right)$	蠕变机理、认知
蠕变激活能Q/(J/mol)	认知不确定性	${\mathcal{N}}\left( {e6, d6} \right)$	材料、认知
气体常数R_g/(J/(mol·K))	确定性	8.314	—

参数	应力/MPa
参数	170	196	216	235	255	274
蠕变速率(10^-5%/h)	0.75	1.2	2.6	3.4	4.4	9.5

参数	样本编号
参数	1	2	3	4	5
失效应变量/%	0.24	0.27	0.32	0.32	0.35

参数	e	d	参数获取方式
σ/MPa	173	5	工况、经验
ε_th/%	0.30	0.06	不确定极大似然估计
A′	10^-17	5×10^-19	手册数据拟合、经验
n	5.45	0.5	手册数据拟合、经验

参数	样本编号
参数	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
失效时间	79	95	123	134	160	196	250	300

Application research of creep life model based on belief reliability theory

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