Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8): 2362-2372.doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.08.40
• Reliability • Previous Articles
Simulation assessment method for multi-state system reliability and mission success probability considering time-dependent faults
Haojie YANG, Jianwei LYU, Yifan XU*
- Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China
-
Received:2020-06-16Online:2021-08-01Published:2021-08-05 -
Contact:Yifan XU
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Cite this article
Haojie YANG, Jianwei LYU, Yifan XU. Simulation assessment method for multi-state system reliability and mission success probability considering time-dependent faults[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(8): 2362-2372.
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Fig.1
Transition diagram of device performance state"
Fig.1
Fig.2
Transition diagram of cold or warm standby device work state"
Fig.2
Fig.3
Overall simulation flow chart"
Fig.3
Fig.4
Sampling process of indirect Monte-Carlo for multi-state system state transition"
Fig.4
Fig.5
Results of non-exponential distribution random sampling numerical algorithm"
Fig.5
Fig.6
System structure of warship in sail mission"
Fig.6
Fig.7
Transition diagram of related device performance state"
Fig.7
Table 1
Criterion for sail mission success decision"
| 类型 | 任务成功性 | 目标①任务结束时刻舰船位置 | 目标②任务结束时刻舰船状态 |
| 到达目标区 | 任务成功 | 到达目标区域 | 总体可用, 各分系统、设备完好 |
| 到达目标区 | 任务成功 | 到达目标区域 | 总体可用, 某分系统或设备处于降级、一般或致命故障 |
| 航速超限 | 任务失败 | 未到达目标区域 | 总体可用 |
| 维修超时 | 任务失败 | 是否到达不确定 | 由于一般故障导致的舰船总体不可用, 宕机 |
| 致命故障 | 任务失败 | 未到达目标区域 | 由于致命故障导致的舰船总体不可用, 宕机 |
Table 1
Fig.8
Probability density function comparison between normal distribution and Weibull distribution"
Fig.8
Table 2
Parameter setting of devices state transition distribution"
| 设备 | 降级λ·, 2 | 一般故障λ·, 1 | 致命故障λ·, 0 | 修复μ·, 3 | |||||||
| η | b | η | b | η | b | η | b | ||||
| 柴油机 | 2 500 | 1.5 | 2 500 | 1.5 | 25 000 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | |||
| 燃气轮机 | 4 000 | 1.3 | 4 000 | 1.3 | 40 000 | 1.0 | 32.0 | 6.0 | |||
| 监控设备 | - | - | 10 000 | 2.0 | - | - | 0.5 | 6.5 | |||
| 辅助设备 | - | - | 3 000 | 1.2 | - | - | 5.0 | 5.9 | |||
| 轴系、螺旋桨 | - | - | 1 500 | 1.5 | 15 000 | 1.0 | 18.0 | 4.5 | |||
| 柴油发电机组 | - | - | 2 000 | 1.5 | 20 000 | 1.0 | 40.0 | 5.3 | |||
Table 2
Table 3
Relationship between power system devices performance state and power output coefficient"
| 柴油机1 | 柴油机2 | 燃气轮机 | 功率输出系数/% |
| 3 | 3 | - | 100.0 |
| - | - | 3 | 100.0 |
| 2 | 3 | 小于3 | 60.0 |
| 3 | 2 | 小于3 | 60.0 |
| 小于3 | - | 2 | 60.0 |
| - | 小于3 | 2 | 60.0 |
| 2 | 2 | 小于2 | 0.0 |
| 小于2 | - | 小于2 | 0.0 |
| - | 小于2 | 小于2 | 0.0 |
Table 3
Fig.9
Comparison of system availability between simulation method and analytical method"
Fig.9
Table 4
Mission success probability simulation results under different sampling methods (T0=50 h)"
| 任务结束类型 | 受迫转移 & 失效偏倚 | 蒙特卡罗间接仿真 |
| 任务成功概率 | 0.996 1 | 0.996 1 |
| 航速超限概率(10-3) | 3.012 4 | 3.080 0 |
| 维修超时概率(10-4) | 8.571 4 | 8.000 0 |
| 致命故障概率(10-5) | 2.135 4 | 1.000 0 |
Table 4
Fig.10
Convergence speed comparison of mission success indices"
Fig.10
Fig.11
System instantaneous availability (T0=50 h)"
Fig.11
Fig.12
Simulation process of failed mission"
Fig.12
Fig.13
Simulation process of successful mission"
Fig.13
Fig.14
Mean value comparison of actual speed, speed of advance and average power output coefficient"
Fig.14
Table 5
Mission success probability simulation results under different state transition probability distributions (T0=50 h)"
| 任务结束类型 | 威布尔分布 | 指数分布 |
| 任务成功概率 | 0.996 1 | 0.991 6 |
| 航速超限概率(10-3) | 3.012 4 | 6.335 2 |
| 维修超时概率(10-4) | 8.571 4 | 20.202 0 |
| 致命故障概率(10-5) | 2.135 4 | 2.789 5 |
Table 5
Fig.15
System instantaneous availability under different state transition probability distributions"
Fig.15
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