军事目标威胁评估研究进展

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2026.07.14

Abstract

Abstract:

Military target threat assessment is based on the target’s intentions and capabilities, combined with the battlefield situation, to evaluate its potential to inflict harm or damage to assets, and serves as a crucial support for formulating strike strategies and operational plans. This paper reviews the development of military target threat assessment, examines the assessment indicators system and its characteristics in typical operational scenarios, and summarizes the commonly used methods for threat assessment. Finally, it discusses existing issues and prospects for future development.

Key words: threat assessment, assessment methodology, indicator system

CLC Number:

E 072
C 934

Yuke SONG, Zhihao LUO, Jincai HUANG, Jianmai SHI. Progress in military target threat assessment research[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2026, 48(7): 2277-2292.

Figures/Tables 6

Table 1

Table 2

Correspondence between first and second-level indicators and meanings of second-level indicators"

一级指标	二级指标	含义
物理属性	目标类型	目标种类，如轰炸机、战斗机、步兵、装甲车辆等^[10−14]
	机动特性	目标的速度、转弯能力等^[15]
	隐身性能	目标避免被雷达感知或探测到的能力^[16]
	探测性能	目标自身探测对方单位或设备的能力^[16]
	机载/车载武器	目标携带的武器种类或数量^[16]
	作战半径	目标能够执行任务的最大距离^[16]
	火力	目标携带或发射武器的火力强度
	生存能力	遭受攻击时继续执行任务的能力^[17]
	制导能力	武器在飞行或移动中调整的能力
	突防能力	穿透防线或防御系统的能力^[18]
	攻击范围	能够有效攻击目标的最大范围^[19]
	命中率	武器击中已方的比率
	毁伤率	攻击后造成的破坏度^[15]
	雷达测量精度	雷达系统测量信息的准确度^[16]
	排水量	舰艇的排水量，反映舰艇体积大小
关系属性	节点度/连接度	在网络中该单位与其他节点的连接情况^[20]
	PageRank	衡量节点在网络中的重要性算法^[20]
	可被替代性	目标在网络中被代替的难易程度^[20]
	指挥控制能力	目标的指挥控制能力^[15,17]
	综合保障能力	目标的综合保障能力^[17]
	辅助决策能力	辅助指挥官和作战人员决策的系统能力
	抗干扰能力	设备遭受干扰时的正常运行能力^{[12,14,21−22]}
	响应时间	系统响应指令所需时间
	信息处理能力	处理信息或指令的设备性能
意图	高度/速度/距离	目标或舰艇的飞行/航行高度、移动速度、与目标的距离
	角度/航向角/火炮角度	飞行/航行角度、目标航行方向与参考方向的角度、火炮瞄准角度
	任务类型	执行的具体任务种类^[23]
	进入角	攻击时进入目标区域的角度^[23]
	航路捷径	选择的非直线航路或快捷路径^{[10−14,22,24−25]}
	剩余到达时间	到达某一位置所需的剩余时间^{[10,12−13,24−25]}
	目标距离	目标与已方指定点的距离^[14]
	目标飞抵高度	预计到达目的地时的飞行高度^[20]
	目标作战意图	目标单位的作战目的或意图^[17]
	数量	单位数量
	相对方位角	目标单位相对于已方单位的位置角度^[26]
已方因素	被保卫要地重要程度	目标威胁的已方目标的重要性评级^[19]
	已方火力	已方可用的火力资源
	已方受保护对象	已方需要保护的目标及其重要度
环境	地形与地貌	战场地形，包括山地、城市等^[27]
	通视情况	双方之间是否有直接视线联系^[15]
	高度差	双方的高度差异
	气象条件	气温、风速、降水等环境条件^[15]

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Fig.1

References 100

1	AZIMIRAD E, HADDADNIA J. Target threat assessment using fuzzy sets theory[J]. International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics, 2015, 1 (2): 57- 74. doi: 10.26555/ijain.v1i2.18
2	朱伟. 等离子体技术让所有装备隐形[J]. 国防, 2006 (8): 79- 80. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-4484.2006.08.040
	ZHU W. Plasma technology makes all equipment invisible[J]. National Defense, 2006 (8): 79- 80. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-4484.2006.08.040
3	周义. 挑战隐形飞机的反隐形技术[J]. 科学24小时, 2000 (5): 39- 40.
	ZHOU Y. Challenging stealth aircraft with anti-stealth technology[J]. Science 24 Hours, 2000 (5): 39- 40.
4	SCHELLING T C. Prospectus for a reorientation of game theory[R]. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 1958.
5	LEE H, CHOI B J, KIM C O, et al. Threat evaluation of enemy air fighters via neural network-based markov chain modeling[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2017, 116, 49- 57. doi: 10.1016/j.knosys.2016.10.032
6	OKELLO N, THORNS G. Threat assessment using bayesian networks[C]//Proc. of the 6th International Conference of Information Fusion, 2003: 1102−1109.
7	PARADIS S, BENASKEUR A, OXENHAM M, et al. Threat evaluation and weapons allocation in network-centric warfare[C]//Proc. of the 7th International Conference on Information Fusion, 2005.
8	OSNER N R, PLESSIS W P. Threat evaluation and jamming allocation[J]. IET Radar, Sonar & Navigation, 2017, 11(3): 459−465.
9	LICHTMAN M, JOVER R P, LABIB M, et al. LTE/LTE-A jamming, spoofing, and sniffing: threat assessment and mitigation[J]. IEEE Communications Magazine, 2016, 54 (4): 54- 61. doi: 10.1109/MCOM.2016.7452266
10	郭辉, 徐浩军, 刘凌. 基于区间数TOPSIS法的空战目标威胁评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2009, 31 (12): 2914- 2917.
	GUO H, XU H J, LIU L. Threat assessment of air combat targets based on interval TOPSIS method[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2009, 31 (12): 2914- 2917.
11	闵绍荣, 陈卫伟, 朱忍胜, 等. 基于变权TOPSIS法的舰艇对空防御威胁评估模型[J]. 中国舰船研究, 2015, 10 (4): 100- 105.
	MIN S R, CHEN W W, ZHU R S, et al. Threat assessment model of naval ship air defense based on variational weight TOPSIS[J]. Journal of China Shipbuilding Research and Design, 2015, 10 (4): 100- 105.
12	王思远, 王刚, 张家瑞. 基于变权TOPSIS法的防空目标威胁评估方法[J]. 弹箭与制导学报, 2019, 39 (6): 171- 176.
	WANG S Y, WANG G, ZHANG J R. Air defense target threat assessment method based on variational weight TOPSIS[J]. Journal of Guided Missiles and Rockets, 2019, 39 (6): 171- 176.
13	冯卉, 宋宝军, 张春梅. 基于改进灰色关联法的空袭目标威胁评估方法[J]. 运筹与管理, 2023, 32 (9): 1- 6. doi: 10.12005/orms.2023.0277
	FENG H, SONG B J, ZHANG C M. Air raid target threat assessment method based on improved grey relational analysis[J]. Operations Research and Management, 2023, 32 (9): 1- 6. doi: 10.12005/orms.2023.0277
14	孙海永, 陈阳晔, 韩会刚. 基于灰色聚类的空袭目标威胁评估与排序[J]. 空军雷达学院学报, 2011, 25 (5): 355- 357，361.
	SUN H Y, CHEN Y Y, HAN H G. Threat assessment and ranking of air raid targets based on grey clustering[J]. Journal of Air Force Radar Academy, 2011, 25 (5): 355- 357，361.
15	徐克虎, 陈金玉, 孔德鹏, 等. 装甲分队目标威胁评估指标体系研究[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2015, 40 (2): 36- 39，44.
	XU K H, CHEN J Y, KONG D P, et al. Research on index system for armor unit target threat assessment[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2015, 40 (2): 36- 39，44.
16	肖力铭, 齐海生, 屈济坤, 等. 基于直觉模糊层次分析法的空中目标威胁评估[J]. 探测与控制学报, 2019, 41 (3): 108- 111.
	XIAO L M, QI H S, QU J K, et al. Air combat target threat assessment based on intuitionistic fuzzy hierarchical analysis[J]. Journal of Exploration and Control, 2019, 41 (3): 108- 111.
17	李威, 卢盈齐, 范成礼, 等. 基于战场态势变权的空中集群威胁评估[J]. 空军工程大学学报（自然科学版）, 2022, 23 (3): 89- 96. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-3516.2022.03.014
	LI W, LU Y Q, FAN C L, et al. Air cluster target threat assessment based on battlefield situation variable weight[J]. Journal of Air Force Engineering University （Natural Science Edition）, 2022, 23 (3): 89- 96. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-3516.2022.03.014
18	王䶮, 滕克难, 陈健, 等. 特征数据缺失下海上要地防空威胁评估[J]. 舰船电子工程, 2022, 42 (4): 22- 25.
	WANG D, TENG K N, CHEN J, et al. Maritime key area air defense threat assessment under missing feature data[J]. Ship Electronics Engineering, 2022, 42 (4): 22- 25.
19	刘胜利, 王刚. 基于雷达图的空袭目标突防航路威胁评估[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33 (1): 196- 204.
	LIU S L, WANG G. Threat assessment of air raid target penetration routes based on radar charts[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33 (1): 196- 204.
20	苏倩, 钟元芾, 曹志钦, 等. 基于作战态势和改进CRITIC-TOPSIS的目标威胁评估模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2023, 45 (8): 2343- 2352.
	SU Q, ZHONG Y F, CAO Z Q, et al. Target threat assessment model based on battlefield situation and improved CRITIC-TOPSIS[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 45 (8): 2343- 2352.
21	孔尚萍, 张海瑞, 廖选平, 等. 基于AHP与熵权法的空中目标威胁评估方法[J]. 战术导弹技术, 2018 (1): 79- 84. doi: 10.16358/j.issn.1009-1300.2018.01.14
	KONG S P, ZHANG H R, LIAO X P, et al. Air combat target threat assessment based on AHP and entropy weight method[J]. Tactical Missile Technology, 2018 (1): 79- 84. doi: 10.16358/j.issn.1009-1300.2018.01.14
22	刘芳, 张勇, 宫华, 等. 基于DBN-TOPSIS法的空中目标融合威胁评估[J]. 兵器装备工程学报, 2023, 44 (1): 136- 143.
	LIU F, ZHANG Y, GONG H, et al. Air target fusion threat assessment based on DBN-TOPSIS method[J]. Journal of Armament Engineering, 2023, 44 (1): 136- 143.
23	黄威龙, 何涛. 空中目标威胁度分析与评估方法[J]. 指挥控制与仿真, 2023, 45 (5): 123- 128. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3819.2023.05.017
	HUANG W L, HE T. Analysis and assessment method of air target threat degree[J]. Command Control and Simulation, 2023, 45 (5): 123- 128. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3819.2023.05.017
24	张肃. 空中目标威胁评估技术[J]. 情报指挥控制系统与仿真技术, 2005 (1): 41- 45.
	ZHANG S. Air target threat assessment technology[J]. Intelligence Command Control Systems and Simulation Technology, 2005 (1): 41- 45.
25	杨军佳, 武翠霞, 肖健. 空袭目标威胁动态评估SPA法[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2021, 46 (5): 6- 11.
	YANG J J, WU C X, XIAO J. Dynamic threat assessment method of air strike targets using SPA[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2021, 46 (5): 6- 11.
26	王曰根, 陈小凤, 史亚锋. 基于指标环的目标威胁度评估方法研究[J]. 舰船电子工程, 2023, 43 (2): 30- 33. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-9730.2023.02.007
	WANG Y G, CHEN X F, SHI Y F. Research on target threat assessment method based on indicator loop[J]. Ship Electronic Engineering, 2023, 43 (2): 30- 33. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-9730.2023.02.007
27	朱学耕, 白文昊, 韩党生, 等. 面向城市作战的坦克分队多目标威胁评估[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2022, 47 (5): 111- 117. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-0640.2022.05.017
	ZHU X G, BAI W H, HAN D S, et al. Multitarget threat assessment for urban combat tank detachment[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2022, 47 (5): 111- 117. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-0640.2022.05.017
28	FENG J F, ZHANG Q, HU J H, et al. Dynamic assessment method of air target threat based on improved GIFSS[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2019, 30 (3): 525- 534. doi: 10.21629/JSEE.2019.03.10
29	CHEN D F, FENG Y, LIU Y X. Threat assessment for air defense operations based on intuitionistic fuzzy logic[J]. Procedia Engineering, 2012, 29, 3302- 3306. doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2012.01.484
30	黄剑平. 地空导弹部队在反空袭作战中的目标威胁评估研究[D]. 厦门: 厦门大学, 2009.
	HUANG J P. Research on target threat assessment of surface-to-air missile units in air raid operations[D]. Xiamen: Xiamen University, 2009.
31	张翼, 梁彦刚, 陈磊, 等. 光学成像侦察卫星威胁评估方法[J]. 国防科技大学学报, 2012, 34 (5): 32- 35.
	ZHANG Y, LIANG Y G, CHEN L, et al. Threat assessment method of reconnaissance satellite network[J]. Journal of National University of Defense Technology, 2012, 34 (5): 32- 35.
32	曲长文, 何友, 马强. 应用多属性决策的威胁评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2000, 22 (5): 27- 30. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-506X.2000.05.010
	QU C W, HE Y, MA Q. Threat assessment method based on multi-attribute decision making[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2000, 22 (5): 27- 30. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-506X.2000.05.010
33	XU Y J, WANG Y C, MIU X D. Multi-attribute decision making method for air target threat evaluation based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2012, 23 (6): 891- 897. doi: 10.1109/jsee.2012.00109
34	肖冰松, 方洋旺, 胡诗国, 等. 一种新的超视距空战威胁评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2009, 31 (9): 2163- 2166. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-506X.2009.09.030
	XIAO B S, FANG Y W, HU S G, et al. A new method of beyond visual range air combat threat assessment[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2009, 31 (9): 2163- 2166. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-506X.2009.09.030
35	孟光磊, 龚光红. 基于混合贝叶斯网的空域目标威胁评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2010, 32 (11): 2398- 2401. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2010.11.31
	MENG G L, GONG G H. Threat assessment method of airspace targets based on mixed bayesian network[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2010, 32 (11): 2398- 2401. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2010.11.31
36	奚之飞, 徐安, 寇英信, 等. 基于PCA-MPSO-ELM的空战目标威胁评估[J]. 航空学报, 2020, 41 (9): 216- 231.
	XI Z F, XU A, KOU Y X, et al. Threat assessment of air combat targets based on PCA-MPSO-ELM[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2020, 41 (9): 216- 231.
37	奚之飞, 徐安, 寇英信, 等. 基于前景理论的空战目标威胁评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2020, 41 (6): 1236- 1248.
	XI Z F, XU A, KOU Y X, et al. Threat assessment of air combat targets based on prospect theory[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2020, 41 (6): 1236- 1248.
38	CHEN H L, CAO X W, HAO Y, et al. Multi-target threat assessment in unmanned cluster confrontation scenarios[C]//Proc. of the 3rd International Conference on Unmanned Systems, 2020: 785−790.
39	程明, 周德云, 张堃. 基于混合型多属性决策方法的目标威胁评估[J]. 电光与控制, 2010, 17 (1): 11- 13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-637X.2010.01.003
	CHENG M, ZHOU D Y, ZHANG K. Target threat assessment based on mixed multicriteria decision-making method[J]. Optoelectronics and Control, 2010, 17 (1): 11- 13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-637X.2010.01.003
40	袁兵, 刘杰, 魏中成, 等. 战斗机翼型使用和发展综述[J]. 空气动力学学报, 2021, 39 (6): 53- 60. doi: 10.7638/kqdlxxb-2021.0252
	YUAN B, LIU J, WEI Z C, et al. Overview of fighter wing profile use and development[J]. Journal of Aeronautical Science and Technology, 2021, 39 (6): 53- 60. doi: 10.7638/kqdlxxb-2021.0252
41	罗晓东, 陈建华, 刘晋楠. TOPSIS理论在海战场目标威胁评估的应用[J]. 四川兵工学报, 2006, 27 (4): 29- 30.
	LUO X D, CHEN J H, LIU J N. Application of TOPSIS on target threat assessment in a sea battle[J]. Sichuan Armament Journal, 2006, 27 (4): 29- 30.
42	杨亚桥, 李启元, 杨露菁. 基于威胁度函数的海战场态势可视化方法[J]. 计算机仿真, 2008, 25 (7): 5- 7. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9348.2008.07.002
	YANG Y Q, LI Q Y, LI L J. Visualization method of maritime battlefield situation based on threat degree function[J]. Computer Simulation, 2008, 25 (7): 5- 7. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9348.2008.07.002
43	熊红强, 耿伯英. 基于模糊AHP法的舰艇威胁能力评估[J]. 现代防御技术, 2012, 40 (2): 5- 12.
	XIONG H Q, GENG B Y. Threat capability assessment of ships based on fuzzy AHP[J]. Modern Defense Technology, 2012, 40 (2): 5- 12.
44	兰俊杰, 陈蓓, 王敏. 雷达组网系统辐射源威胁度评估[J]. 航天电子对抗, 2010, 26 (3): 61- 64. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-2421.2010.03.018
	LAN J J, CHEN B, WANG M. Radar network system radiation source threat assessment[J]. Aerospace Electronic Warfare, 2010, 26 (3): 61- 64. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-2421.2010.03.018
45	韩博文, 姚佩阳, 钟赟, 等. 基于QABC-IFMADM算法的有人/无人机编队作战威胁评估[J]. 电子学报, 2018, 46 (7): 1584- 1592.
	HAN B W, Y P Y, ZHONG Y, et al. Threat evaluation of manned/unmanned aerial vehicle formation combat based on QABC-IFMADM algorithm[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2018, 46 (7): 1584- 1592.
46	SUN T D, WANG J, WANG C C. TOPSIS threat assessment based on the coefficient of variation[C]//Proc. of the 39th Chinese Control Conference, 2020.
47	毛保全, 李元超, 杨雨迎. 面向城市作战的目标威胁排序方法研究[J]. 火炮发射与控制学报, 2020, 41 (4): 6- 11.
	MAO B Q, LI Y C, YANG Y Y. Urban combat target threat ranking method research[J]. Journal of Gunnery and Command Control, 2020, 41 (4): 6- 11.
48	孔德鹏, 常天庆, 郝娜, 等. 地面作战目标威胁评估多属性指标处理方法[J]. 自动化学报, 2021, 47 (1): 161- 172.
	KONG D P, CHANG T Q, HAO N, et al. Multi-attribute indicator processing method for ground combat target threat assessment[J]. Acta Automatica Sinica, 2021, 47 (1): 161- 172.
49	HU W L, WANG L W, PENG C, et al. Deep learning-based method for detecting anomalies in electromagnetic environment situation[J]. Defence Technology, 2023, 26 (8): 231- 241. doi: 10.1016/j.dt.2022.05.011
50	ZANAKIS S H, SOLOMON A, WISHART N, et al. Multi-attribute decision making: a simulation comparison of select methods[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 1998, 107 (3): 507- 529. doi: 10.1016/S0377-2217(97)00147-1
51	王毅, 刘三阳, 张文, 等. 属性权重不确定的直觉模糊多属性决策的威胁评估方法[J]. 电子学报, 2014, 42 (12): 2509- 2514.
	WANG Y, LIU S Y, ZHANG W, et al. Intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making method for threat assessment with uncertain attribute weights[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2014, 42 (12): 2509- 2514.
52	MALIK G S, DAS S K. A method of risk analysis and threat management using analytic hierarchy process: an application to air defense[C]//Proc. of the International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 2014.
53	DENG Y. A threat assessment model under uncertain environment[J]. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2015, 2015, 878024.
54	张堃, 王雪, 张才坤, 等. 基于IFE动态直觉模糊法的空战目标威胁评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2014, 36 (4): 697- 701. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2014.04.15
	ZHANG K, WANG X, ZHANG C K, et al. Air combat target threat assessment based on IFE dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy method[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2014, 36 (4): 697- 701. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2014.04.15
55	张媛媛, 冯琦, 周德云, 等. 基于直觉模糊集的空战动态多属性威胁评估[J]. 电光与控制, 2015, 22 (2): 17- 21. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-637X.2015.02.004
	ZHANG Y Y, FENG Q, ZHOU D Y, et al. Dynamic multi-attribute threat assessment of air combat based on intuitionistic fuzzy set[J]. Electronics Optics & Control, 2015, 22 (2): 17- 21. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-637X.2015.02.004
56	王紫东, 高晓光, 刘晓寒. 基于Stacking策略的集成BN网络目标威胁评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2024, 46 (2): 586- 598. doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.02.22
	WANG Z D, GAO X G, LIU X H. Air combat target threat assessment based on stacking strategy and integrated BN network[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2024, 46 (2): 586- 598. doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.02.22
57	余舟毅, 陈宗基, 周锐. 基于贝叶斯网络的威胁等级评估算法研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2005, 17 (3): 555- 558. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-731X.2005.03.012
	YU Z Y, CHEN Z J, ZHOU R. Threat level assessment algorithm based on Bayesian network[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2005, 17 (3): 555- 558. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-731X.2005.03.012
58	邱浪波, 刘作良, 刘明. 一种应用神经网络技术的威胁估计算法[J]. 空军工程大学学报（自然科学版）, 2002 (6): 25- 28. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-3516.2002.06.009
	QIU L B, LIU Z L, LIU M. A threat estimation algorithm using neural network technology[J]. Journal of Air Force Engineering University （Natural Science Edition）, 2002 (6): 25- 28. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-3516.2002.06.009
59	季傲, 姜礼平, 吴强. 基于改良云模型的舰艇防空威胁评估[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2016, 41 (5): 35- 38.
	JI A, JIANG L P, WU Q. Air defense threat assessment for ships based on improved cloud model[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2016, 41 (5): 35- 38.
60	孙海文, 谢晓方, 孙涛, 等. 基于DDBN-Cloud的舰艇编队防空目标威胁评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2018, 40 (11): 2466- 2475. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2018.11.12
	SUN H W, XIE X F, SUN T, et al. Ship formation air defense target threat assessment method based on DDBN-Cloud[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2018, 40 (11): 2466- 2475. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2018.11.12
61	韩其松, 余敏建, 高阳阳, 等. 云模型和距离熵的TOPSIS法空战多目标威胁评估[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2019, 44 (4): 136- 141.
	HAN Q S, YU M J, GAO Y Y, et al. Cloud model and distance entropy-based TOPSIS method for air combat multi-target threat assessment[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2019, 44 (4): 136- 141.
62	傅蔚阳, 刘以安, 薛松. 基于改进KH算法优化ELM的目标威胁估计[J]. 智能系统学报, 2018, 13 (5): 693- 699.
	FU W Y, LIU Y A, XUE S. Air combat target threat assessment model based on improved KH algorithm optimizing ELM[J]. Journal of Intelligent Systems, 2018, 13 (5): 693- 699.
63	李特, 冯琦, 张堃. 基于熵权灰色关联和D-S证据理论的威胁评估[J]. 计算机应用研究, 2013, 30 (2): 380- 382. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3695.2013.02.016
	LI T, FENG Q, ZHANG K. Threat assessment based on entropy weight grey relational and D-S evidence theory[J]. Computer Application Research, 2013, 30 (2): 380- 382. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3695.2013.02.016
64	董鹏宇, 王红卫, 陈游. 基于博弈论的GRA-TOPSIS辐射源威胁评估方法[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2020, 46 (10): 1973- 1981. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2019.0543
	DONG P Y, WANG H W, CHEN Y. GRA-TOPSIS radiation source threat assessment method based on game theory[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2020, 46 (10): 1973- 1981. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2019.0543
65	张延风, 刘建书, 张士峰. 基于层次分析法和熵值法的目标多属性威胁评估[J]. 弹箭与制导学报, 2019, 39 (2): 163- 165.
	ZHANG Y F, LIU J S, ZHANG S F. Target multicriteria threat assessment based on analytic hierarchy process and entropy method[J]. Journal of Guided Missiles and Rockets, 2019, 39 (2): 163- 165.
66	孙云柯, 方志耕, 陈顶. 基于动态灰色主成分分析的多时刻威胁评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43 (3): 740- 746. doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.03.18
	SUN Y K, FANG Z G, CHEN D. Multi-moment threat assessment based on dynamic grey principal component analysis[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43 (3): 740- 746. doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.03.18
67	张堃, 周德云. 熵权与群组AHP相结合的TOPSIS法多目标威胁评估[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2008, 20 (7): 1661- 1664.
	ZHANG K, ZHOU D Y. Multicriteria threat assessment using TOPSIS method combined with entropy weight and group AHP[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2008, 20 (7): 1661- 1664.
68	王剑锋, 方纪骞, 柳佳佳, 等. 目标价值评估指标的研究[J]. 北京测绘, 2008 (2): 9- 11.
	WANG J F, FANG J Q, LIU J J, et al. Research on target value assessment indicator[J]. Beijing Surveying and Mapping, 2008 (2): 9- 11.
69	ZHANG K, LIU P P, LI K, et al. Multi-target threat assessment in air combat based on AHP and FVIKOR[C]//Proc. of the IEEE International Conference on Unmanned Systems, 2017.
70	汪伟, 顾竹鑫, 李海波. 基于层次分析法的低空慢速小目标威胁评估方法[J]. 信息化研究, 2019, 45 (4): 20- 24.
	WANG W, GU Z X, LI H B. Low altitude slow speed small target threat assessment method based on hierarchical analysis[J]. Information Research, 2019, 45 (4): 20- 24.
71	彭明毓, 李战武, 杨爱武, 等. 基于ICA-TOPSIS法的空战威胁评估[J]. 探测与控制学报, 2021, 43 (5): 113- 121.
	PENG M Y, LI Z W, YANG A W, et al. Air combat threat assessment based on ICA-TOPSIS method[J]. Journal of Exploration and Control, 2021, 43 (5): 113- 121.
72	吴文海, 郭晓峰, 周思羽, 等. 改进直觉模糊TOPSIS和三支决策的威胁评估[J]. 西北工业大学学报, 2021, 39 (2): 392- 399. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2758.2021.02.020
	WU W H, GUO X F, ZHOU S Y, et al. Improved intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS and three-way decision in threat assessment[J]. Journal of Northwestern Polytechnical University, 2021, 39 (2): 392- 399. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2758.2021.02.020
73	郭辉, 徐浩军, 周莉. 基于区间数TOPSIS法的空袭目标威胁评估[J]. 空军工程大学学报（自然科学版）, 2011, 12 (1): 40- 45. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-3516.2011.01.009
	GUO H, XU H J, ZHOU L. Air raid target threat assessment based on interval number TOPSIS method[J]. Journal of Air Force Engineering University （Natural Science Edition）, 2011, 12 (1): 40- 45. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-3516.2011.01.009
74	蒲海鹏, 王凤山, 郑自强. 基于无人机突袭的指挥所威胁TOPSIS评估方法[J]. 指挥控制与仿真, 2022, 44 (6): 29- 34.
	PU H P, WANG F S, ZHENG Z Q. Command post threat TOPSIS assessment method based on UAV raid[J]. Command Control and Simulation, 2022, 44 (6): 29- 34.
75	张涛, 周中良, 苟新禹, 等. 基于信息熵和TOPSIS法的目标威胁评估及排序[J]. 电光与控制, 2012, 19 (11): 35- 38.
	ZHANG T, ZHOU Z L, GOU X Y, et al. Target threat assessment and ranking based on information entropy and TOPSIS method[J]. Optoelectronics and Control, 2012, 19 (11): 35- 38.
76	张银玲, 尚韬, 李兆坤. 基于组合赋权TOPSIS辐射源动态威胁评估[J]. 计算机科学, 2024, 51 (7): 957- 963.
	ZHANG Y L, SHANG T, LI Z K. Radar emitter target dynamic threat assessment based on combining weighting-TOPSIS method[J]. Computer Science, 2024, 51 (7): 957- 963.
77	陈德江, 王君, 张浩为. 基于直觉模糊多属性决策的动态威胁评估模型[J]. 计算机科学, 2019, 46 (4): 183- 188. doi: 10.11896/j.issn.1002-137X.2019.04.029
	CHEN D J, WANG J, ZHANG H W. Dynamic threat assessment model based on intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making[J]. Computer Science, 2019, 46 (4): 183- 188. doi: 10.11896/j.issn.1002-137X.2019.04.029
78	靳崇, 孙娟, 王永佳, 等. 基于直觉模糊TOPSIS和变权VIKOR的防空目标威胁综合评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44 (1): 172- 180. doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.01.22
	JIN C, SUN J, WANG Y J, et al. Comprehensive assessment of air defense target threat based on intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS and variable weight VIKOR[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44 (1): 172- 180. doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.01.22
79	彭方明, 邢清华, 王三涛. 基于Vague集TOPSIS法的空中目标威胁评估[J]. 电光与控制, 2010, 17 (10): 23- 27.
	PENG F M, XING Q H, WANG S T, et al. Air target threat assessment based on Vague set TOPSIS method[J]. Optoelectronics and Control, 2010, 17 (10): 23- 27.
80	ZHANG H, XIE J W, SONG Y F, et al. A novel ranking method for intuitionistic fuzzy set based on information fusion and application to threat assessment[J]. Iranian Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 2020, 17 (1): 91- 104.
81	YIN Y F, ZHANG R T, SU Q R. Threat assessment of aerial targets based on improved GRA-TOPSIS method and three-way decisions[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20 (7): 13250- 13266. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023591
82	张肃. 基于灰色关联度分析的目标威胁程度评估[J]. 制导与引信, 2005, 26 (3): 19- 23，56. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-0576.2005.03.005
	ZHANG S. Target threat assessment based on grey relational degree analysis[J]. Guidance & Fuze, 2005, 26 (3): 19- 23，56. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-0576.2005.03.005
83	张元瀚, 李相民, 代进进. 基于灰色区间关联决策的海上编队反导威胁评估[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2011, 36 (5): 95- 98. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-0640.2011.05.025
	ZHANG Y H, LI X M, DAI J J. Air defense threat assessment of maritime formation based on grey interval relational decision[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2011, 36 (5): 95- 98. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-0640.2011.05.025
84	徐克虎, 张明双, 李灵之. 基于区间变权灰色关联法的集群目标威胁评估[J]. 电光与控制, 2019, 26 (12): 6- 11. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-637X.2019.12.002
	XU K H, ZHANG M S, LI L Z. Cluster target threat assessment based on interval variable weight grey relational method[J]. Optoelectronics and Control, 2019, 26 (12): 6- 11. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-637X.2019.12.002
85	陈洁钰, 姚佩阳, 王勃, 等. 基于结构熵和IGSO-BP算法的动态威胁评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2015, 37 (5): 1076- 1083.
	CHEN J Y, YAO P Y, WANG B, et al. Dynamic threat assessment based on structure entropy and IGSO-BP algorithm[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2015, 37 (5): 1076- 1083.
86	ZHANG K, KONG W R, LIU P P, et al. Assessment and sequencing of air target threat based on intuitionistic fuzzy entropy and dynamic VIKOR[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2018, 29 (2): 305- 310. doi: 10.21629/jsee.2018.02.11
87	高杨, 黄仰超, 程国兵, 等. 直觉模糊信息下基于VIKOR和三支决策的多目标威胁评估方法[J]. 电子学报, 2021, 49 (3): 542- 549. doi: 10.12263/DZXB.20190150
	GAO Y, HUANG Y C, CHENG G B, et al. Multi-objective threat assessment method based on VIKOR and three-way decision under intuitionistic fuzzy information[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2021, 49 (3): 542- 549. doi: 10.12263/DZXB.20190150
88	YU D, WANG H J, LI B Y, et al. PROMETHEE-based multi-AUV threat assessment method using combinational weights[J]. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 2023, 11 (7): 1422. doi: 10.3390/jmse11071422
89	SAATY R W. The analytic hierarchy process—what it is and how it is used[J]. Mathematical Modelling, 1987, 9 (3): 161- 176. doi: 10.1016/0270-0255(87)90473-8
90	GAO Y Y, YU M J, WANG Z B L. A new method of multi-target threat assessment for air combat[C]//Proc. of the IEEE International Conference on Cybernetics and Intelligent Systems (CIS) and IEEE Conference on Robotics, Automation and Mechatronics (RAM), 2017: 779−784.
91	GAO Y, LI D S, ZHONG H. A novel target threat assessment method based on three-way decisions under intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making environment[J]. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 2020, 87, 103276. doi: 10.1016/j.engappai.2019.103276
92	冯卉, 宋宝军, 邢清华. 基于直觉模糊VIKOR决策的反导作战预案评估方法[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2022, 47 (6): 17- 21.
	FENG H, SONG B J, XING Q H. Anti-missile operational scheme evaluation method based on intuitionistic fuzzy VIKOR MADM[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2022, 47 (6): 17- 21.
93	ZADEH L A. Fuzzy sets[J]. Information and Control, 1965, 8 (3): 338- 353.
94	ATANASSOV K T. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets[M]. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag, 1999.
95	KONG D P, CHANG T Q, WANG Q D, et al. A threat assessment method of group targets based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making[J]. Applied Soft Computing, 2018, 67, 350- 369. doi: 10.1016/j.asoc.2018.03.015
96	BAYES P. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances[J]. Philosophical Transactions, 1763, 53, 370- 418. doi: 10.1007/bf02883540
97	FAN Z H, SHI B H, CHEN J Y, et al. A novel dynamic Bayesian network based threat assessment algorithm[C]//Proc. of the 4th International Conference on Systems and Informatics, 2017: 611−615.
98	毛丽艳. 基于数据链的多机多目标智能火控系统研究[D]. 南京: 南京航空航天大学, 2006.
	MAO Y L. Research on multistation multistar smart fire control system based on data chain[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2006.
99	王改革. 基于智能算法的目标威胁估计[D]. 北京: 中国科学院大学, 2013.
	WANG G H. Target threat estimation based on intelligent algorithms[D]. Beijing: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2013.
100	陈路路, 张建民, 白洁, 等. 基于遗传算法和ELM神经网络的目标威胁估计[J]. 无线电工程, 2023, 53 (7): 1719- 1724. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-3106.2023.07.028
	CHEN L L, ZHANG J M, BAI J. Target threat estimation based on genetic algorithm and ELM neural network[J]. Radio Engineering, 2023, 53 (7): 1719- 1724. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-3106.2023.07.028

属性名称	类型	描述
目标类型	列表	目标的型号
目标速度	字符串	目标行进的速度
目标高度	字符串	目标当前所处的高度
目标距离	字符串	目标距离预定点的距离
目标大小	字符串	目标的大小
目标意图	列表	目标意图
目标作战半径	字符串	目标的有效攻击半径
目标携带武器	列表	目标携带武器的种类
目标行进角度	角度	目标行进的方向角
目标武器瞄准方向	角度	目标武器的瞄准角
指控能力	列表	目标在体系中的指挥控制能力

属性名称	类型	描述
信号强度	字符串	接收到无线电波能量的水平
信号质量	列表	信号在传输过程中的失真程度、误码率、抖动等
可用性	百分比	网络或服务可供用户连续使用且可靠工作的程度
网络拥塞程度	列表	网络占用率
虚假基站检测率	百分比	虚假基站占有比率
网络认证与加密机制的可靠性	列表	对用户身份或设备合法性进行确认的过程

使用方法	代表性文献	优点	缺点
多属性决策分析法	[11]，[32]，[46]，[50-53]	具有系统性和全面性的优势，且有较高灵活性	存在较高的主观性
模糊理论	[22]，[28]，[54-55]	处理不确定性问题和模糊问题上有很大优势	方法较复杂
贝叶斯网络	[22]，[35]，[56-57]	处理不确定问题有优势	依赖数据，计算复杂
神经网络	[5]，[49]， [58]	可以处理复杂问题	决策过程属于黑箱问题，难以解释和理解
云模型	[59-61]	具有直观性和灵活性的特点	模型较为复杂，需要专业知识
极限学习机	[62]	速度快、易于实现	处理复杂问题的能力有限
D-S证据理论	[63]	能够处理不确定和模糊性问题，较为灵活	具有较强的主观性

[1]	Ziqing ZHEN, Dong HUANG, Song HAN, Haoming FENG. Construction of economic evaluating indicator system for service life of ships [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(7): 2275-2282.
[2]	Chongshuang HU, Jikai WANG, Minghao LI, Yajie DOU, Jiang JIANG. Combat threat human-machine collaborative assessment framework based on IVSFS [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(6): 1855-1866.
[3]	Ruijing CUI, Jianbin SUN, GKewei YAN, Minghao LI. Construction method of equipment operational test indicator system based on UAF [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(5): 1536-1550.
[4]	Zidong WANG, Xiaoguang GAO, Xiaohan LIU. Target threat assessment based on ensemble Bayesian network with Stacking strategy [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2024, 46(2): 586-598.
[5]	Qian SU, Yuanfu ZHONG, Zhiqin CAO, Yingchao ZHANG. Target threat assessment model based on operational situation and improved CRITIC-TOPSIS [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 45(8): 2343-2352.
[6]	Wenfei ZHAO, Yan WANG, Kenan TENG, Jian CHEN, Lu ZHOU. Target information processing model of air defence system for strategic location on the sea based on random service system [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 45(11): 3565-3572.
[7]	Kun ZHANG, Zhenchong ZHANG, Zekun LIU, Ke LI, Peipei LIU. Multi-target dynamic threat assessment in mixed air combat based on FD-TODIM [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 45(1): 148-154.
[8]	Xinyu XU, Lunjun WAN, Ping CHEN, Jiangbin DAI, Zhizhou GAO. Modeling of alert patrol airspace planning in defensive counterair interception operation [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(5): 1589-1599.
[9]	Yingqi LU, Chengli FAN, Qiang FU, Xiaowen ZHU, Wei LI. Missile defense target threat assessment based on improved similarity measure and information entropy of IFRS [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(4): 1230-1238.
[10]	Bowen YU, Lin YU, Ming LYU, Jie ZHANG. Target threat assessment model based on M-ANFIS-PNN [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(10): 3155-3163.
[11]	Chong JIN, Juan SUN, Yongjia WANG, Pushen CAI, Xin RONG. Threat comprehensive assessment for air defense targets based on intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS and variable weight VIKOR [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(1): 172-180.
[12]	Yunke SUN, Zhigeng FANG, Ding CHEN. Multi-time threat assessment based on dynamic grey principal component analysis [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(3): 740-746.
[13]	Guanglei MENG, Mingzhe ZHOU, Haiyin PIAO, Huimin ZHANG. Threat assessment method of dual-aircraft formation based on cooperative tactical recognition [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(10): 2285-2293.
[14]	SUN Haiwen, XIE Xiaofang, SUN Tao, ZHANG Longjie. Threat assessment method of warships formation air defense based on DBN under the condition of small sample data missing [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2019, 41(6): 1300-1308.
[15]	XING Zhiwei, LI Biao, LUO Qian. Operational effectiveness evaluation of ground service for transit flight [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2019, 41(5): 1071-1078.

Progress in military target threat assessment research

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 6

References 100

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

二级指标	防空作战	空中作战	海上作战	城市/地面作战
目标类型	√	√	√	√
机动特性	√	√	√	√
隐身性能	√	√	√	√
探测性能	√	√	√	√
机载/车载武器	√	√	√	√
作战半径	√	√	√	—
火力	√	—	√	√
生存能力	√	—	√	√
制导能力	—	—	√	—
突防能力	√	—	√	—
攻击范围	—	—	√	—
命中率	—	—	√	—
角度/航向角/火炮角度	√	√	—	√
毁伤率	—	—	√	—
雷达测量精度	√	—	√	—
节点度/连接度	√	—	—	—
可被替代性	√	—	—	—
指挥控制能力	—	√	√	—
综合保障能力	—	√	√	—
辅助决策能力	—	—	√	—
抗干扰能力	√	—	√	—
响应时间	—	—	√	—
信息处理能力	—	—	√	—
指挥引导能力	—	—	√	—
高度/速度/距离	√	√	√	√
任务类型	√	√	√	√
进入角	√	√	—	—
航路捷径	√	—	—	—
剩余到达时间	√	—	—	—
目标距离	√	—	—	—
目标飞抵高度	√	—	—	—
目标作战意图	—	—	—	√
数量	—	—	—	√
相对方位角	—	—	—	√
行进方向	—	—	—	√
火力角度	—	—	—	√
已方单位重要程度	√	√	√	√
已方火力	√	—	—	—
已方受保护对象	√	—	—	√
地形与地貌	—	—	—	√
通视情况	—	—	—	√
高度差	—	—	—	√
气象条件	—	—	—	√