基于不确定随机Bow-tie模型的航空保障人因风险评估

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.09.23

Abstract

Abstract:

Addressing the issue of uncertainty quantification in the evaluation of aviation support activity maintenance personnel behavior, this study establishes an evaluation framework for behavioral uncertainty of maintenance personnel based on uncertainty theory, clarifying the evaluation models for perception class, decision-making class, and execution class behaviors. Based on the characteristics of human-machine interaction in aviation support activities, a scenario decomposition method and its uncertainty propagation calculation method based on the uncertain random Bow-tie model are proposed. Accident analysis results of the weapon mounting process of combat aircraft indicates adding safety devices to the internal weapons bay doors and arranging for maintenance personnel to observe from outside the bay can reduce the probability of catastrophic accidents. The proposed method is effective in assessing human-factors risk of aviation support.

Key words: human error, belief reliability, human reliability, risk assessment, uncertainty theory

CLC Number:

TB 114.3

Jian CHU, Xing PAN, Lunhu HU, Jinpeng WEI, Zhenxiang LIU. Human-factor risk assessment of aviation support based on uncertain random Bow-tie model[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(9): 3022-3030.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 36

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行为分类	模型名称	总结
感知类行为	视觉感知时间模型；听觉感知时间模型	方法细节参考文献[12]
决策类行为	确定规则下的决策时间模型；不确定规则下的决策时间模型	方法细节参考文献[13]
执行类行为	人机工效相关模型	可参考文献[26]或利用人机工效仿真软件获得

事件代码	事件描述	概率分布类型	参数值
B₁	座舱内人员误触关闭按钮	均匀分布	（0,8000）
B₂	飞管计算机故障	指数分布	0.00025
B₃	舱门驱动装置锁定机构失效	指数分布	0.0002
B₄	舱门驱动装置故障	指数分布	0.0004
B₅	液压电磁阀故障	指数分布	0.00035
B₆	应急控制单元异常输出开锁信号	指数分布	0.00025
B₇	伺服阀液压锁故障	指数分布	0.00025
B₈	应急控制单元异常采集到指令信号	指数分布	0.0003
B₉	应急控制单元异常输出驱动信号	指数分布	0.0005

事件代码	事件描述
M₁	舱门驱动系统意外建立压力
M₂	武器舱门关闭指令意外触发
M₃	液压系统异常供压收起武器舱门
M₄	伺服阀液压锁意外打开
M₅	应急控制单元异常输出控制信号
M₆	正常系统意外作动
M₇	应急系统意外作动
TE	挂弹过程武器舱门意外收起

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Human-factor risk assessment of aviation support based on uncertain random Bow-tie model

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