Abstract:

According to the problem that different evaluations cannot be integrated and risks are difficult to be sorted, a novel risk assessment method based on the fuzzy theory is proposed. A fuzzy risk matrix is defined in which the possibilities and severities of risks can be discussed in a unified scale, the impact weights of risk possibility and severity are determined using pairwise comparison; risk evaluations from different analyses are synthesized; the risk level is assessed by the synthesized evaluation and impact weights. An example of the risk assessment in a specific hazard of the flight control system is introduced. The risk index of different hazards determined by the proposed method can be used to make a detail sort to support decision-making, which demonstrates the engineering practicability and effectiveness of the method. The proposed method can assess risks more objectively and supply necessary information for hazard prevention measure determination and decision-making.