基于杀伤网评估的美导弹防御体系效能分析

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.04.20

Abstract

Abstract:

To meet the needs of future wars with systematic and intelligent features, modeling and analysis of kill chains/web become a study hotspot in the military field. Quantitative evaluation of kill chains/web in specific combat scenarios provide important references for improving combat effectiveness. This paper focuses on the US missile defense system as the main research object and conducts a system effectiveness analysis based on kill-web evaluation. Firstly, based on typical operational scenarios of the US missile defense system in different periods, a kill-web model based on complex web theory is constructed by distinguishing between intra-layer node capabilities and inter-layer node relationships. Secondly, redundancy, risk, and effectiveness are proposed as three quantitative evaluation indicators, and their specific meanings and calculation steps are given. Subsequently, simulation examples of kill-web evaluation are provided for different combat scenarios. Finally, suggestions for system optimization are provided based on the calculation results, verifying the feasibility of the proposed method. The proposed method can provide useful references for the modeling and analysis of kill-web.

Key words: kill-web, system evaluation, redundancy, risk, effectiveness

CLC Number:

N945.15

Xiaohan YAN, Hua CHAI, Qiangqiang XU. Effectiveness analysis of the US missile defense system based on kill-web evaluation[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(4): 1235-1245.

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编号	名称	编号	名称
R₁	DSP预警卫星	R₉	宙斯盾舰载雷达
R₂	SBIRS预警卫星	R₁₀	某基地早期预警雷达
R₃	AN/TPY-2前置预警雷达Ⅰ	R₁₁	克利尔远程识别雷达
R₄	AN/TPY-2前置预警雷达Ⅱ	R₁₂	GBI地基拦截武器Ⅰ
R₅	AN/TPY-2前置预警雷达Ⅲ	R₁₃	GBI地基拦截武器Ⅱ
R₆	丹麦眼镜蛇早期预警雷达	R₁₄	Aegis BMD标准Ⅲ海基舰载拦截武器
R₇	克利尔早期预警雷达	R₁₅	THAAD车载雷达及拦截武器
R₈	海基X波段雷达(SBX)	-	-

节点	数值
R₁	0.4
R₂	0.2
R₃	0.3
R₄	0.3
R₅	0.3
R₆	0.4
R₇	0.2
R₈	0.2
R₉	0.2
R₁₀	0.4
R₁₁	0.1
R₁₂	0.4
R₁₃	0.4
R₁₄	0.2
R₁₅	0.2

节点	R₁	R₆	R₈	R₉	R₁₂	R₁₄	R₁₅
R₁	0.6	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₆	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₈	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₉	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₂	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₄	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₅	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

节点	R₁	R₆	R₈	R₉	R₁₂	R₁₄	R₁₅
R₁	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₆	0	0.6	0	0	0	0	0
R₈	0	0	0.8	0	0	0	0
R₉	0	0	0	0.8	0	0	0
R₁₂	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₄	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₅	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.8

节点	R₁	R₆	R₈	R₉	R₁₂	R₁₄	R₁₅
R₁	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₆	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₈	0	0	0.8	0	0	0	0
R₉	0	0	0	0.8	0	0	0
R₁₂	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₄	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₅	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.8

Effectiveness analysis of the US missile defense system based on kill-web evaluation

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参数	R₁	R₆	R₈	R₉	R₁₂	R₁₄	R₁₅
l₁^－i	0	1.152	0.768	1.056	0.768	1.056	1.056
f₁ⁱ	0	0.8	0.533	0.733	0.533	0.733	0.733

场景	冗余性	风险性/%	有效性/%
场景1	1.44	85.71	36
场景2	2.496	57.14	56.45
场景3	67.095	46.67	98.44

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参数	R₁	R₆	R₈	R₉	R₁₂	R₁₄	R₁₅
l₂^－i	0	1.92	1.152	1.92	1.44	1.44	2.112
f₂ⁱ	0	0.769	0.462	0.769	0.577	0.577	0.846

参数	R₁	R₂	R₃	R₄	R₅	R₆	R₇	R₈	R₉	R₁₀	R₁₁	R₁₂	R₁₃	R₁₄	R₁₅
l₃^－i	55.593	51.759	53.676	53.676	53.676	51.345	46.095	41.895	41.895	65.415	45.360	45.290	45.290	45.290	65.415
f₃ⁱ	0.829	0.771	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.765	0.687	0.624	0.624	0.975	0.676	0.675	0.675	0.675	0.975