面向任务的舰船装备备件利用率计算模型

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2023.05.18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对舰船装备远航任务时间长、远离岸基且备件难以及时得到补给的现实, 系统研究了面向任务的舰船装备备件利用率计算问题。首先, 对单元级备件利用率的计算方法进行了分析, 建立了单元级备件利用率模型。其次, 基于上述基础, 按照备件短缺时是否会引起系统停止工作的标准, 把备件分为关键单元(会引起系统停机)和非关键单元(不会引起系统停机), 将复杂装备系统近似为串联系统, 按照任务成功或失败两种情况研究了任务过程中系统级备件利用率计算模型。然后，以任务成功率为指标约束, 建立了远航任务装备系统级备件利用率的计算模型。案例计算与仿真分析表明, 所提模型能够满足工程应用要求, 可为装备保障部门制定远航任务备件配置方案提供理论支撑。

关键词: 任务, 任务成功率, 备件, 备件利用率

Abstract:

In view of the reality that the ship equipment has a long sea voyage time and is far away from the shore base, and the spare parts are difficult to be supplied in time, this paper systematically studies the mission-oriented calculation of the utilization rate of the ship equipment spare parts. Firstly, the calculation method of the utilization rate of the unit-level spare parts is analyzed, and the utilization rate model of the unit-level spare parts is established. Secondly, based on the above analysis, according to whether the shortage of the spare parts will cause the system shutdown, the spare parts are divided into key units which can cause the system shutdown and non-key units which cannot cause the system shutdown, and the equipment system with complex structure is approximated as a series system. According to the two cases of task success and task failure, the calculation model of the utilization rate of the system-level spare parts during the mission is studied. And the calculation model of the utilization rate of the system-level equipment spare parts during the long sea voyage task is established with the success rate of mission as the restrictive constraint. Case calculation and simulation analysis prove that the proposed model can meet the requirements of engineering application, and can provide theoretical support for the equipment support department to formulate the spare parts allocation scheme of the long sea voyage mission.

Key words: mission, success rate of mission, spare part, utilization rate of spare parts

中图分类号:

E917

王俊龙, 楼京俊, 阮旻智, 李华. 面向任务的舰船装备备件利用率计算模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2023, 45(5): 1420-1428.

Junlong WANG, Jingjun LOU, Minzhi RUAN, Hua LI. Mission-oriented calculation model of warship equipment spare parts utilization rate[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 45(5): 1420-1428.

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任务时间/h	指数分布 EXP(0.002)		伽马分布 Ga(1.3, 0.002)		正态分布 N(500, 170²)
任务时间/h	仿真结果	解析结果	仿真结果	解析结果	仿真结果	解析结果
600	0.395	0.386	0.266	0.270	0.252	0.257
700	0.423	0.443	0.311	0.318	0.323	0.330
800	0.493	0.497	0.360	0.366	0.389	0.391
900	0.542	0.547	0.409	0.412	0.446	0.450
1 000	0.602	0.594	0.447	0.457	0.513	0.514
1 100	0.623	0.637	0.505	0.501	0.570	0.583
1 200	0.670	0.677	0.531	0.542	0.648	0.650
1 300	0.719	0.713	0.573	0.581	0.716	0.714
1 400	0.740	0.746	0.615	0.619	0.769	0.773
1 500	0.794	0.776	0.660	0.653	0.816	0.827
1 600	0.805	0.803	0.682	0.686	0.876	0.876
1 700	0.827	0.827	0.734	0.716	0.915	0.917
1 800	0.855	0.848	0.733	0.745	0.953	0.948
1 900	0.870	0.867	0.770	0.770	0.969	0.971
2 000	0.886	0.884	0.770	0.794	0.984	0.985
2 100	0.901	0.899	0.814	0.816	0.994	0.993
2 200	0.908	0.912	0.843	0.836	0.998	0.997
2 300	0.916	0.924	0.860	0.854	0.999	0.999
2 400	0.941	0.934	0.873	0.870	0.999	1.000
2 500	0.947	0.943	0.895	0.885	1.000	1.000
2 600	0.947	0.950	0.894	0.898	1.000	1.000
2 700	0.957	0.957	0.899	0.910	1.000	1.000
2 800	0.967	0.963	0.928	0.921	1.000	1.000
2 900	0.971	0.968	0.929	0.930	1.000	1.000
3 000	0.967	0.973	0.940	0.939	1.000	1.000

序号	关键单元1的备件消耗数量	关键单元2的备件消耗数量	非关键单元3的备件消耗数量	备注
1	3	0	0	关键单元1任务期间出现备件短缺
2	3	0	1
3	3	1	0
4	3	1	1
5	3	2	0
6	3	2	1
7	0	2	0	关键单元2任务期间出现备件短缺
8	0	2	1
9	1	2	0
10	1	2	1
11	2	2	0
12	2	2	1
13	3	2	0
14	3	2	1

单元序号	寿命分布规律	备注
1	EXP(500)	关键
2	Ga(1.3, 1/500)	关键
3	N(500, 170²)	关键
4	EXP(1000)	非关键
5	Ga(2.1, 1/500)	非关键

序号	备件方案(各单元的备件数量)					任务成功率P_s		备件利用率P_b
序号	单元1	单元2	单元3	单元4	单元5	仿真结果	解析结果	仿真结果	解析结果
1	1	1	1	3	2	0.002	0.001	0.375	0.375
2	1	1	2	3	2	0.035	0.033	0.389	0.386
3	2	1	2	3	2	0.060	0.070	0.473	0.476
4	2	2	2	3	2	0.136	0.133	0.556	0.543
5	3	2	2	3	2	0.213	0.203	0.584	0.582
6	3	2	3	3	2	0.397	0.377	0.579	0.576
7	3	3	3	3	2	0.501	0.506	0.592	0.591
8	4	3	3	3	2	0.643	0.637	0.610	0.601
9	5	3	3	3	2	0.704	0.716	0.581	0.585
10	5	4	3	3	2	0.807	0.805	0.571	0.572
11	6	4	3	3	2	0.860	0.850	0.548	0.549
12	6	4	4	3	2	0.913	0.911	0.521	0.526

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