基于全局灵敏度的导弹装备费用敏感性分析

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.08.20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于装备费用敏感性分析较少考虑因子间相互作用及因子概率分布等现状，为在项目研制初期有效识别导弹装备费用驱动因子，全面分析单个因子和因子之间相互作用对于研制费用的影响，在定性分析的基础上，引入基于方差的全局灵敏度分析方法，采用蒙特卡罗随机采样模拟各因子的概率分布，求解费用模型的一阶和全阶灵敏度系数。引用多元二阶导弹费用测算模型，评估灵敏度收敛样本量，测算其输入参数对于费用的全局影响情况，利用测算结果简化模型。通过简化后模型、原模型和任意幂次模型的对比结果，验证基于方差全局灵敏度分析对于导弹装备费用驱动因子识别的有效性。

关键词: 导弹装备, 费用驱动因子, 全局灵敏度, 敏感性分析, 灵敏度系数

Abstract:

Based on the current situation of less consideration on the interaction between factors and the probability distribution of factors in the sensitivity analysis of equipment costs, in order to effectively identify the cost driving factors and comprehensively analyze the coupling effect among factors on the missile development cost at the early stage, on the basis of qualitative analysis, a variance-based global sensitivity method is introduced, and Monte Carlo random sampling is used to simulate the probability distribution of each factor to solve the first and the total sensitivity coefficients. Quote one multivariate second-order missile cost model, evalue the sample size of sensitivity convergence, analyze the global impact of inputs on costs, and use the results to simplify this cost model. By comparing the simplified model, the original model and the referenced any power model, the effectiveness of the global sensitivity method for identifying the missile equipment cost driven factor is verified.

Key words: missile equipment, cost driven factor, global sensitivity, sensitivity analysis, sensitivity coefficient

中图分类号:

V 267

常菊, 刘晓东, 何荧. 基于全局灵敏度的导弹装备费用敏感性分析[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2025, 47(8): 2632-2638.

Ju CHANG, Xiaodong LIU, Ying HE. Sensitivity analysis of missile equipment cost based on global sensitivity[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(8): 2632-2638.

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序号	$ C $/万元	$ m $/kg	$ R $/km	$ {m_Z} $/kg	$ {v_M} $/Ma	$ \rho $/m
1	45	10.1	4.5	1	2	2
2	49.5	11	3.5	2.2	1	2
3	55.6	11	3.5	2.2	1	1.5
4	93	12.7	5.5	2.7	1.6	2.2
5	157.5	75	8	9.1	1.8	8
6	190	85	8	15	2.2	8
7	229.3	74	9.3	11	2	6
8	192.5	87	9	14	2.3	8
9	264	75	11	14	3.5	8
10	316	630	40	75	2.7	18
11	250	2450	45	195	3.5	50
12	430	281	56	41	5	16
13	690	1664	90	133	5.5	34
14	885	1804	150	143	6	36
15	856	1442.4	127.8	61.2	3	32
16	865	914	100	91	5	22
17	1035	914	160	84	5	20
18	1620	315	172	11.1	5	0.5
19	1500	1300	180	90	10	4

序号	指标	最小值	最大值
1	发射质量 x₁/kg	10.1	2450.0
2	最大射程 x₂/km	3.5	180.0
3	战斗部质量 x₃/kg	1.0	195.0
4	飞行的最高速度 x₄/Ma	1.0	10.0
5	制导精度 x₅/m	0.5	50.0

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