基于杀伤网评估的美导弹防御体系效能分析

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.04.20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为适应具有体系化、智能化特征的未来战争的需要, 杀伤链/网建模与分析已成为军事领域的研究热点, 对特定作战场景下杀伤链/网的定量评估将为作战效能提升提供重要参考。本文以美导弹防御体系为主要研究对象, 开展基于杀伤网评估的体系效能分析。首先, 基于不同时期美导弹防御体系的典型作战场景, 区分层内节点能力与层间节点关系, 构建基于复杂网络理论的杀伤网模型。其次, 提出冗余性、风险性、有效性作为衡量杀伤网的3个定量评价指标, 给出3个指标的具体含义及计算步骤。而后, 给出针对不同作战场景的杀伤网评估仿真算例。最后, 结合计算结果给出体系优化的建议, 验证所提方法的可行性。所提方法可为杀伤网的建模与分析提供有益的参考。

关键词: 杀伤网, 体系评估, 冗余性, 风险性, 有效性

Abstract:

To meet the needs of future wars with systematic and intelligent features, modeling and analysis of kill chains/web become a study hotspot in the military field. Quantitative evaluation of kill chains/web in specific combat scenarios provide important references for improving combat effectiveness. This paper focuses on the US missile defense system as the main research object and conducts a system effectiveness analysis based on kill-web evaluation. Firstly, based on typical operational scenarios of the US missile defense system in different periods, a kill-web model based on complex web theory is constructed by distinguishing between intra-layer node capabilities and inter-layer node relationships. Secondly, redundancy, risk, and effectiveness are proposed as three quantitative evaluation indicators, and their specific meanings and calculation steps are given. Subsequently, simulation examples of kill-web evaluation are provided for different combat scenarios. Finally, suggestions for system optimization are provided based on the calculation results, verifying the feasibility of the proposed method. The proposed method can provide useful references for the modeling and analysis of kill-web.

Key words: kill-web, system evaluation, redundancy, risk, effectiveness

中图分类号:

N945.15

燕笑寒, 柴华, 许强强. 基于杀伤网评估的美导弹防御体系效能分析[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2025, 47(4): 1235-1245.

Xiaohan YAN, Hua CHAI, Qiangqiang XU. Effectiveness analysis of the US missile defense system based on kill-web evaluation[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(4): 1235-1245.

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编号	名称	编号	名称
R₁	DSP预警卫星	R₉	宙斯盾舰载雷达
R₂	SBIRS预警卫星	R₁₀	某基地早期预警雷达
R₃	AN/TPY-2前置预警雷达Ⅰ	R₁₁	克利尔远程识别雷达
R₄	AN/TPY-2前置预警雷达Ⅱ	R₁₂	GBI地基拦截武器Ⅰ
R₅	AN/TPY-2前置预警雷达Ⅲ	R₁₃	GBI地基拦截武器Ⅱ
R₆	丹麦眼镜蛇早期预警雷达	R₁₄	Aegis BMD标准Ⅲ海基舰载拦截武器
R₇	克利尔早期预警雷达	R₁₅	THAAD车载雷达及拦截武器
R₈	海基X波段雷达(SBX)	-	-

节点	数值
R₁	0.4
R₂	0.2
R₃	0.3
R₄	0.3
R₅	0.3
R₆	0.4
R₇	0.2
R₈	0.2
R₉	0.2
R₁₀	0.4
R₁₁	0.1
R₁₂	0.4
R₁₃	0.4
R₁₄	0.2
R₁₅	0.2

节点	R₁	R₆	R₈	R₉	R₁₂	R₁₄	R₁₅
R₁	0.6	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₆	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₈	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₉	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₂	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₄	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₅	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

节点	R₁	R₆	R₈	R₉	R₁₂	R₁₄	R₁₅
R₁	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₆	0	0.6	0	0	0	0	0
R₈	0	0	0.8	0	0	0	0
R₉	0	0	0	0.8	0	0	0
R₁₂	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₄	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₅	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.8

节点	R₁	R₆	R₈	R₉	R₁₂	R₁₄	R₁₅
R₁	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₆	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₈	0	0	0.8	0	0	0	0
R₉	0	0	0	0.8	0	0	0
R₁₂	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₄	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R₁₅	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.8