Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2009, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 621-624.

• 系统工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于置信区间的仿真试验结果决策分析方法

胡伟文, 苑秉成, 杨鹏   

  1. 海军工程大学, 湖北, 武汉, 430033
  • 收稿日期:2007-12-24 修回日期:2008-02-24 出版日期:2009-03-20 发布日期:2010-01-03
  • 作者简介:胡伟文(1964- ),男,副教授,博士,主要研究方向为军事运筹,水中军用目标特性仿真.E-mail:huweiwenl@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    海军工程大学自然科学基金资助课题(HGDJJ200706)

Decision-making analysis on simulation test result based on confidence interval

HU Wei-wen, YUAN Bing-cheng, YANG Peng   

  1. Naval Univ. of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China
  • Received:2007-12-24 Revised:2008-02-24 Online:2009-03-20 Published:2010-01-03

摘要: 仿真试验结果是衡量仿真置信度的重要依据,也影响着决策者对仿真试验的信任程度。为提供辅助决策支持,提出了基于置信区间的仿真试验结果决策方法,并讨论了统计决策的风险函数。通过对由仿真输出抽样计算得到的评估参数的置信区间与接收区间进行比较,提出了仿真试验结果的模糊一致性分析方法,其结果可作为完善模型及优化参数的参考信息。在水下目标辐射噪声仿真系统中的应用实例表明,方法在利用各阶段仿真输出的反馈信息方面呈现出优势。

Abstract: The method of decision-making analysis on simulation test result is studied,which is the basis for estimating simulation credibility.To provide auxiliary decision-making support,a judgment method of simulation test result is presented based on confidence interval,and risk function of statistics decision-making is discussed.By comparing the confidence interval which comes from simulation sampling with the acceptance interval of evaluation index,an analysis method of fuzzy uniformity on simulation test result is discussed,and its result is expressed as a fuzzy number and may be used as reference news for perfecting model and optimizing index.It is illustrated with application in the simulation of underwater target radiated-noise that,the method has advantages on perfecting statistics decision-making and making the best use of feedback news of simulation exportation.

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