Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2026, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (8): 2761-2781.doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2026.08.22

• Systems Engineering • Previous Articles    

Analysis of key nodes in the ammunition supply chain considering cascading failure

Penghua LIU, Xianming SHI, Yalong WANG, Mifen YANG   

  1. Shijiazhuang Campus,Army Engineering University of PLA,Shijiazhuang 050003,China
  • Received:2025-05-27 Revised:2025-07-30 Online:2026-01-24 Published:2026-01-24
  • Contact: Xianming SHI

Abstract:

After the ammunition support node is attacked, the throughput of neighbor nodes increases due to the supply task redistribution, and the probability of being found and attacked increases, which leads to the problem that the ammunition supply chain is prone to cascading failure. A method for dynamic identification of key nodes in the ammunition supply chain is proposed. Firstly, analyze the node failure and cascading failure processes, and construct a cascading failure model of the ammunition supply chain based on the fact that the node failure probability follows a two-stage Gompertz distribution. Secondly, from the perspectives of supply capacity and supply efficiency, the evaluation index system of node importance is constructed by selecting agility, stability, load degree and robustness. Thirdly, considering the current task completion status and the subsequent task completion capacity, the position shortage rate, the supply task completion rate and the survival rate of the supply chain are selected as the comprehensive supply capacity evaluation indices for the ammunition supply chain. Finally, a dynamic model of the ammunition supply chain system is constructed. The proposed method and five key node identification methods of temporal network are verified by using the node removal method, and the sensitivity analysis of the proposed method is conducted from two dimensions: external environment and internal parameters. The results show that compared with other methods, the comprehensive supply capacity of the ammunition supply chain of the proposed method decreases the fastest, indicating that the identified nodes have the greatest impact and the highest importance on ammunition supply. At the same time, it is found that the proposed method is relatively sensitive to changes in ammunition supply tasks and agility indices. The conclusion shows that the proposed method can effectively identify the key nodes in the ammunition supply chain, which is helpful for formulating anti-strike contingency plans and improving the efficiency of ammunition supply.

Key words: key node analysis, cascading failure, temporal network, system dynamics

CLC Number: 

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