基于全局灵敏度的导弹装备费用敏感性分析

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.08.20

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the current situation of less consideration on the interaction between factors and the probability distribution of factors in the sensitivity analysis of equipment costs, in order to effectively identify the cost driving factors and comprehensively analyze the coupling effect among factors on the missile development cost at the early stage, on the basis of qualitative analysis, a variance-based global sensitivity method is introduced, and Monte Carlo random sampling is used to simulate the probability distribution of each factor to solve the first and the total sensitivity coefficients. Quote one multivariate second-order missile cost model, evalue the sample size of sensitivity convergence, analyze the global impact of inputs on costs, and use the results to simplify this cost model. By comparing the simplified model, the original model and the referenced any power model, the effectiveness of the global sensitivity method for identifying the missile equipment cost driven factor is verified.

Key words: missile equipment, cost driven factor, global sensitivity, sensitivity analysis, sensitivity coefficient

CLC Number:

V 267

Ju CHANG, Xiaodong LIU, Ying HE. Sensitivity analysis of missile equipment cost based on global sensitivity[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(8): 2632-2638.

Figures/Tables 9

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Table 1

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序号	$ C $/万元	$ m $/kg	$ R $/km	$ {m_Z} $/kg	$ {v_M} $/Ma	$ \rho $/m
1	45	10.1	4.5	1	2	2
2	49.5	11	3.5	2.2	1	2
3	55.6	11	3.5	2.2	1	1.5
4	93	12.7	5.5	2.7	1.6	2.2
5	157.5	75	8	9.1	1.8	8
6	190	85	8	15	2.2	8
7	229.3	74	9.3	11	2	6
8	192.5	87	9	14	2.3	8
9	264	75	11	14	3.5	8
10	316	630	40	75	2.7	18
11	250	2450	45	195	3.5	50
12	430	281	56	41	5	16
13	690	1664	90	133	5.5	34
14	885	1804	150	143	6	36
15	856	1442.4	127.8	61.2	3	32
16	865	914	100	91	5	22
17	1035	914	160	84	5	20
18	1620	315	172	11.1	5	0.5
19	1500	1300	180	90	10	4

序号	指标	最小值	最大值
1	发射质量 x₁/kg	10.1	2450.0
2	最大射程 x₂/km	3.5	180.0
3	战斗部质量 x₃/kg	1.0	195.0
4	飞行的最高速度 x₄/Ma	1.0	10.0
5	制导精度 x₅/m	0.5	50.0

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Sensitivity analysis of missile equipment cost based on global sensitivity

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