军事目标威胁评估研究进展

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2026.07.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

军事目标威胁评估是基于目标的意图与能力，结合战场态势，评估目标造成伤害或损害资产的潜力，是制定打击策略和作战方案的关键支持。本文梳理军事目标威胁评估的发展历程，研究典型作战场景下的评估指标体系及其特点，总结当前常用的威胁评估方法。最后，讨论了现有问题，并展望未来的发展方向。

关键词: 威胁评估, 评估方法, 指标体系

Abstract:

Military target threat assessment is based on the target’s intentions and capabilities, combined with the battlefield situation, to evaluate its potential to inflict harm or damage to assets, and serves as a crucial support for formulating strike strategies and operational plans. This paper reviews the development of military target threat assessment, examines the assessment indicators system and its characteristics in typical operational scenarios, and summarizes the commonly used methods for threat assessment. Finally, it discusses existing issues and prospects for future development.

Key words: threat assessment, assessment methodology, indicator system

中图分类号:

E 072
C 934

宋雨柯, 罗志浩, 黄金才, 石建迈. 军事目标威胁评估研究进展[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2026, 48(7): 2277-2292.

Yuke SONG, Zhihao LUO, Jincai HUANG, Jianmai SHI. Progress in military target threat assessment research[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2026, 48(7): 2277-2292.

图/表 6

表1

表2

一、二级指标对应关系及二级指标含义"

一级指标	二级指标	含义
物理属性	目标类型	目标种类，如轰炸机、战斗机、步兵、装甲车辆等^[10−14]
	机动特性	目标的速度、转弯能力等^[15]
	隐身性能	目标避免被雷达感知或探测到的能力^[16]
	探测性能	目标自身探测对方单位或设备的能力^[16]
	机载/车载武器	目标携带的武器种类或数量^[16]
	作战半径	目标能够执行任务的最大距离^[16]
	火力	目标携带或发射武器的火力强度
	生存能力	遭受攻击时继续执行任务的能力^[17]
	制导能力	武器在飞行或移动中调整的能力
	突防能力	穿透防线或防御系统的能力^[18]
	攻击范围	能够有效攻击目标的最大范围^[19]
	命中率	武器击中已方的比率
	毁伤率	攻击后造成的破坏度^[15]
	雷达测量精度	雷达系统测量信息的准确度^[16]
	排水量	舰艇的排水量，反映舰艇体积大小
关系属性	节点度/连接度	在网络中该单位与其他节点的连接情况^[20]
	PageRank	衡量节点在网络中的重要性算法^[20]
	可被替代性	目标在网络中被代替的难易程度^[20]
	指挥控制能力	目标的指挥控制能力^[15,17]
	综合保障能力	目标的综合保障能力^[17]
	辅助决策能力	辅助指挥官和作战人员决策的系统能力
	抗干扰能力	设备遭受干扰时的正常运行能力^{[12,14,21−22]}
	响应时间	系统响应指令所需时间
	信息处理能力	处理信息或指令的设备性能
意图	高度/速度/距离	目标或舰艇的飞行/航行高度、移动速度、与目标的距离
	角度/航向角/火炮角度	飞行/航行角度、目标航行方向与参考方向的角度、火炮瞄准角度
	任务类型	执行的具体任务种类^[23]
	进入角	攻击时进入目标区域的角度^[23]
	航路捷径	选择的非直线航路或快捷路径^{[10−14,22,24−25]}
	剩余到达时间	到达某一位置所需的剩余时间^{[10,12−13,24−25]}
	目标距离	目标与已方指定点的距离^[14]
	目标飞抵高度	预计到达目的地时的飞行高度^[20]
	目标作战意图	目标单位的作战目的或意图^[17]
	数量	单位数量
	相对方位角	目标单位相对于已方单位的位置角度^[26]
已方因素	被保卫要地重要程度	目标威胁的已方目标的重要性评级^[19]
	已方火力	已方可用的火力资源
	已方受保护对象	已方需要保护的目标及其重要度
环境	地形与地貌	战场地形，包括山地、城市等^[27]
	通视情况	双方之间是否有直接视线联系^[15]
	高度差	双方的高度差异
	气象条件	气温、风速、降水等环境条件^[15]

表2

表3

表4

表5

图1

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属性名称	类型	描述
目标类型	列表	目标的型号
目标速度	字符串	目标行进的速度
目标高度	字符串	目标当前所处的高度
目标距离	字符串	目标距离预定点的距离
目标大小	字符串	目标的大小
目标意图	列表	目标意图
目标作战半径	字符串	目标的有效攻击半径
目标携带武器	列表	目标携带武器的种类
目标行进角度	角度	目标行进的方向角
目标武器瞄准方向	角度	目标武器的瞄准角
指控能力	列表	目标在体系中的指挥控制能力

属性名称	类型	描述
信号强度	字符串	接收到无线电波能量的水平
信号质量	列表	信号在传输过程中的失真程度、误码率、抖动等
可用性	百分比	网络或服务可供用户连续使用且可靠工作的程度
网络拥塞程度	列表	网络占用率
虚假基站检测率	百分比	虚假基站占有比率
网络认证与加密机制的可靠性	列表	对用户身份或设备合法性进行确认的过程

使用方法	代表性文献	优点	缺点
多属性决策分析法	[11]，[32]，[46]，[50-53]	具有系统性和全面性的优势，且有较高灵活性	存在较高的主观性
模糊理论	[22]，[28]，[54-55]	处理不确定性问题和模糊问题上有很大优势	方法较复杂
贝叶斯网络	[22]，[35]，[56-57]	处理不确定问题有优势	依赖数据，计算复杂
神经网络	[5]，[49]， [58]	可以处理复杂问题	决策过程属于黑箱问题，难以解释和理解
云模型	[59-61]	具有直观性和灵活性的特点	模型较为复杂，需要专业知识
极限学习机	[62]	速度快、易于实现	处理复杂问题的能力有限
D-S证据理论	[63]	能够处理不确定和模糊性问题，较为灵活	具有较强的主观性

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