基于综合集成法的军事战略能力评估方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2023.08.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

军事战略能力评估是军事力量运用与建设发展规划等战略活动的基础和前提, 开展相关研究已成为日益的现实需求。对于军事战略能力评估, 由于涉及到战略环境演变、高度不确定的军事科技发展以及本质复杂的信息化条件下的联合作战体系等因素, 面临诸多困难和挑战。本文在相关概念分析的基础上, 对当前常用的军事能力评估方法进行了总结, 并以从定性到定量综合集成法为基本指导, 探索研究了军事战略能力评估方法。方法从战略问题研究入手, 通过战略推演确定能力评估中的战略想定, 明确评估问题背景和边界, 利用兵棋推演模拟对抗过程, 观察和记录战略能力在对抗活动中的外在表现, 综合运用多种数据分析方法和手段, 对结果数据进行综合分析, 从而获得能够支撑决策的具有定量依据的评估结论。通过本文方法研究, 希望为相关的评估理论方法研究和实践活动提供借鉴。

关键词: 军事战略能力, 评估方法, 综合集成法

Abstract:

Military strategic capability assessment is the foundation and prerequisite for strategic activities such as military force utilization and construction development planning, and conducting relevant research has become an increasingly practical demand. For the assessment of military strategic capabilities, due to factors such as the evolution of the strategic environment, highly uncertain military technological development, and the complex nature of the joint operation system under information technology conditions, there are many difficulties and challenges. Based on the analysis of relevant concepts, this article summarizes the commonly used military capability assessment methods, and explores the military strategic capability assessment method using the meta-synthetic approach from qualitative to quantitative as the basic guidance. The method starts with strategic problem research, determines the strategic scenarios in capability assessment through strategic deduction, clarifies the background and boundaries of the assessment problem, and uses military chess to simulate the adversarial process, observing and recording the external performance of strategic capabilities in adversarial activities, utilizing various data analysis methods and means to comprehensively analyze the resulting data, in order to obtain quantitative assessment conclusions that can support decision-making. Through the method research in this article, it is hoped to provide reference for relevant assessment theory and practical activities.

Key words: military strategic capability, assessment method, meta-synthetic approach

中图分类号:

TB114.1

王强, 高云翔, 杭爽, 张笔峰. 基于综合集成法的军事战略能力评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2023, 45(8): 2312-2317.

Qiang WANG, Yunxiang GAO, Shuang HANG, Bifeng ZHANG. Military strategic capability assessment method based on meta-synthetic approach[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 45(8): 2312-2317.

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军种	非常弱	弱	中等	强大	非常强大
陆军	-	-	√	-	-
海军	-	-	√	-	-
空军	-	-	√	-	-
陆战队	-	√	-	-	-
核	-	-	√	-	-
总体	-	-	√	-	-

指标	非常弱	弱	中等	强大	非常强大
规模	-	√	-	-	-
能力	-	-	√	-	-
战备	-	-	√	-	-
总体	-	-	√	-	-

平台	寿命	能力	尺寸	状态
尼米兹级(10艘)	3	3	1	2
福特级(1艘)	5	3	-	-

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