“敏捷作战运用”基地建设建模仿真研究

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2026.01.20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对“敏捷作战运用”概念数学机理研究较少的现状，聚焦基地建设进行要素体系建模与数值仿真研究。首先，基于“敏捷作战运用”作战概念，明确综合基地建设的任务需求，分级分层梳理影响要素体系。然后，建立包含疏散、对手火力打击、基地建设成本在内的基地建设模型体系，并通过鲁棒多目标优化求解帕累托最优前沿。最后，针对典型基地建设方案，对影响基地建设目标的关键要素进行仿真分析。仿真实验结果表明，提出的基地建设模型能够正确反映各要素对“敏捷作战运用”目标的影响，为基地建设提供参考。

关键词: 敏捷作战运用, 基地建设, 建模仿真, 多目标优化

Abstract:

In response to the curremt situation of limited research on the mathematical mechanism of “agile combat employment （ACE）” concept, research on element system-of-systems modeling and numerical simulation is conducted, with a focus on base construction. Firstly, based on the operational concept of ACE, the task requirements of integrated base construction are defined, and the influence factor system is graded and layered sorting. Secondly, the base construction model system including evacuation, opponent fire strike and base construction cost is established, and the Pareto optimal frontier is solved through robust multi-objective optimization. Finally, according to the typical base construction scheme, the key elements affecting the base construction target are simulated and analyzed. The simulation experimental results show that the proposed base construction model can correctly reflect the influence of each element on the target of ACE, and provides reference for the base construction.

Key words: agile combat employment (ACE), base construction, modeling and simulation, multi-objective optimization

中图分类号:

O 221

宋祺, 黄震宇, 李寰宇, 郭安新, 杨任农. “敏捷作战运用”基地建设建模仿真研究[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2026, 48(1): 218-234.

Qi SONG, Zhenyu HUANG, Huanyu LI, Anxin GUO, Rennong YANG. Modeling and simulation study of “agile combat employment” base construction[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2026, 48(1): 218-234.

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毁伤等级	概率
干扰	20%以下
压制	20%～40%
破坏	40%～60%
摧毁	60%以上

序号	参数	符号	数值
1	红方导弹飞行时间	${t_M}$/min	10
2	观察−判断−决策时间	${t_\text{OOD}}$/min	1
3	决策时间	${t_D}$/min	1
4	跑道长度	$L$/m	3700
5	跑道宽度	$B$/m	40
6	飞机最小起飞滑跑距离	${L_w}$/m	400
7	飞机滑行时间	${t_\text{tx}}$/min	2
8	起飞滑跑时间	${t_\text{tf}}$/min	0.5
9	起飞最小间隔等待时间	${t_\text{wait}}$/min	0.5
10	三等战斗值班飞机机务准备时间	${t_3}$/min	50
11	二等战斗值班飞机机务准备时间	${t_2}$/min	30
12	一等战斗值班飞机机务准备时间	${t_1}$/min	10
13	三等战斗值班飞机数量	$ N_F^3 $/架	36
14	二等战斗值班飞机数量	$ N_F^2 $/架	16
15	一等战斗值班飞机数量	$N_F^1$/架	48
16	平均机务准备时间	${t_r}$/min	27.6
17	基地飞机总数量	${N_F}$/架	100
18	跑道成本	${C_R}$/亿美元/条	5
19	加固飞机掩体成本	${C_S}$/亿美元/个	0.292
20	半永久应急地点机场成本	${C_\text{SCL}}$/亿美元/个	8
21	临时应急地点机场成本	${C_\text{TCL}}$/亿美元/个	4
22	拦截弹成本	${C_I}$/亿美元/枚	0.069
23	半永久应急地点机场容量	${{\text{n}}_\text{SCL}}$/架	12
24	临时应急地点机场容量	${n_\text{TCL}}$/架	4
25	红方导弹圆概率偏差	$\text{CEP}$/m	50
26	红方导弹（子母弹）毁伤半径	${R_m}$/m	200
27	红方导弹（杀爆弹）毁伤半径	$ R_m^{'} $/m	100
28	红方发射导弹的总数量	${n_M}$/枚	100
29	掩体防护的基准值	$ {p_0} $	0.5
30	情报时间的不确定区间	$ u $	（0,120）
31	基地建设的最小生存性阈值	$ \alpha $	0.75

参数	方案1	方案2	方案3	方案4	方案5	方案6
加固飞机掩体数量$ {N_S} $/个	88	88	52	52	64	72
掩体防护效率$ {P_P} $	0.77	0.82	0.85	0.90	0.82	0.94
拦截概率$ {P_I} $	0	0	0	0	0	0
临时应急地点数量$ {N_{\text{TCL}}} $/个	0	0	0	0	0	1
半永久应急地点数量$ {N_{\text{SCL}}} $/个	1	1	4	4	3	2
跑道数量$ {N_R} $/条	1	1	4	4	3	3
成本/亿美元	93.2	102.3	108.7	117.6	133.5	141.4
生存性	0.78	0.83	0.87	0.90	0.93	0.94

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