考虑不确定性情况下的故障树重要度分析方法及应用

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.03.19

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to measure the impact of uncertainty in the probability of bottom event occurrence on the top event, a fault tree importance analysis method considering the uncertainty of bottom event occurrence probability is proposed based on the moment independent importance measure, based on the establishment of a fault tree probability composition function. Taking an aircraft icing detection system as an example, the importance method proposed was used to analyze the impact of uncertainty in the probability of bottom event occurrence on the system's failure. Designers can conduct more targeted analysis and design based on the importance results, and also verify the rationality of the proposed method.

Key words: fault tree analysis (FTA), uncertainty, system reliability, importance measure

CLC Number:

Guijie LI, Yang ZHAN, Dawei LI, Guangqing XIA. Fault tree importance measure analysis method and its application considering uncertainty[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2024, 46(3): 935-941.

Figures/Tables 9

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符号	事件含义
T	丧失结冰探测告警与指示功能
E₁	视觉探测功能丧失
E₂	结冰探测告警功能丧失
E₃	告警信息丧失
E₄	飞行告警计算机功能故障
E₅	总线传输告警信息丧失
E₆	系统数据采集计算机故障
E₇	总线信号输出丧失
X₁	供电故障
X₂	控制开关故障
X₃	探测棒灯故障
X₄	飞行告警计算机1功能故障
X₅	飞行告警计算机2功能故障
X₆	左ID硬线信号输出丧失
X₇	右ID硬线信号输出丧失
X₈	系统数据采集计算机1故障
X₉	系统数据采集计算机2故障
X₁₀	左ID总线信号输出丧失
X₁₁	右ID总线信号输出丧失

底事件	分布形式	均值	标准差
X₁	指数分布	1.8×10^－5	1.8×10^－5
X₂	指数分布	7.2×10^－4	7.2×10^－4
X₃	指数分布	2.8×10^－3	2.8×10^－3
X₄	对数正态分布	3.4×10^－4	5.1×10^－5
X₅	对数正态分布	3.4×10^－4	5.1×10^－5
X₆	指数分布	1.2×10^－3	1.2×10^－3
X₇	指数分布	1.2×10^－3	1.2×10^－3
X₈	对数正态分布	2.7×10^－3	2.7×10^－4
X₉	对数正态分布	2.7×10^－3	2.7×10^－4
X₁₀	指数分布	9.1×10^－3	9.1×10^－3
X₁₁	指数分布	9.1×10^－3	9.1×10^－3

底事件重要度	计算结果(排序)	底事件重要度	计算结果(排序)
I₁^U	2.238 7×10^-2(5)	I₇^U	8.125 7×10^-3(6)
I₂^U	1.470 2×10^-1(2)	I₈^U	6.560 1×10^-4(11)
I₃^U	5.608 9×10^-1(1)	I₉^U	6.954 4×10^-4(10)
I₄^U	6.808 8×10^-2(3)	I₁₀^U	8.081 6×10^-3(8)
I₅^U	6.687 5×10^-2(4)	I₁₁^U	8.079 6×10^-3(9)
I₆^U	8.087 5×10^-3(7)	-	-

重要度	计算结果	重要度	计算结果(排序)
I_{4, 5}^U	8.482 4×10^-2(1)	I_{8, 9}^U	1.035 1×10^-3(4)
I_{6, 7}^U	1.086 6×10^-2(2)	I_{10, 11}^U	1.056 0×10^-2(3)

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Fault tree importance measure analysis method and its application considering uncertainty

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