基于证据GO法的复杂多态系统动态可靠性分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.01.31

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to accurately grasp the evolution law of reliability index of the complex multi-state system and its components, it is necessary to carry out dynamic reliability analysis. A dynamic reliability analysis method for complex multi-state system considering epistemic uncertainty is proposed to deal with the epistemic uncertainty caused by small samples, inadequate failure data which are difficult in obtaining and uncertain failure or degradation mechanism. Based on the GO method, this paper constructs a multi-state GO operator considering epistemic uncertainty combining evidence theory to quantify the uncertainty of the complex multi-state system, and models the reliability of the complex multi-state system combining the Markov model. The feasibility of the method is verified by an example.

Key words: complex multi-state system, GO method, epistemic uncertainty, evidence theory, dynamic reliability analysis

CLC Number:

TB114

Yuqi CHEN, Tingxue XU, Zhiqiang LI, Haijun LI. Dynamic reliability analysis of complex multi-state system based on evidence GO method[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(1): 230-237.

Figures/Tables 12

Table 1

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Table 2

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References 28

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名称	模拟单元的状态数
两状态单元	2个状态
或门	逻辑操作符,不模拟单元
触发发生器	3个状态
多信号发生器	产生输入信号,状态数任意
信号发生器	产生输入信号,状态数任意
有信号而导通	3个状态
有信号而关断	3个状态
延迟发生器	延迟输入信号状态,操作符的数据仅代表输入信号可能的状态增量和相应发生概率
功能操作器	对输入信号的状态进行比较输出,操作符的数据仅代表两输入信号可能的状态差值和相应的状态增量
与门	逻辑操作符,不模拟单元
M取K门	逻辑操作符,不模拟单元
路径分离器	分离输入信号,操作符的数据仅代表选择的输入状态值和相应发生概率
多路输入输出器	根据输入信号的不同状态组合产生相应输出,操作符的数据代表可能的输入信号及对应输出信号的状态组合和状态概率
线性组合发生器	对输入信号的状态值进行状态组合,操作符的数据代表线性组合的系数
限制概率门	对输入信号的状态值和概率值加以限制,操作符的数据代表输入信号状态值和概率值的阈值
要求恢复已导通单元	3个状态
要求恢复已关断单元	3个状态

S₁	X_c	R_o
s₁¹, s₂¹, …, s¹_N₁, s¹_{[1, 2, …, N₁]}	x₁^c, x₂^c, …, x^c_N₂, x^c_{[1, 2, …, N₂]}	ϕ(S₁, X_c)

部件名称	状态数	瞬时状态转移强度(×10^-6/h)
部件名称	状态数	λ_{1, 2}	λ_{1, 3}	λ_{2, 3}
电源A	2	18	-	-
部件B1、B2	3	[19.8, 20.2]	[12.7, 13.3]	[19.6, 20.5]

部件名称	部件状态	部件性能/%	BPA
电源A	1	100	P₁^A=e^{-18×10^-6t}
电源A	2	0	P₂^A=1-e ^{-18×10^-6t}
部件B1、B2	1	50	P₁^B=e ^{-33.5×10^-6t}
	2	25	P₂^B=1.523e ^{-20.5×10^-6t}-1.523e^{-33.5×10^-6t}
	3	0	P₃^B=0.944-1.456e ^{-20.5×10^-6t}+0.512e ^{-33.5×10^-6t}
	4	[0，25，50]	P₄^B=0.056-0.067e ^{-20.5×10^-6t}+0.011e ^{-33.5×10^-6t}

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Dynamic reliability analysis of complex multi-state system based on evidence GO method

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