面向作战的体系韧性评估方法研究综述及展望

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2026.01.15

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2026, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (1): 157-171.doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2026.01.15

面向作战的体系韧性评估方法研究综述及展望

杨克巍¹, 徐任杰¹^,²^,*(), 姜九瑶¹, 李际超¹, 杨志伟¹, 宫琳²

1. 国防科技大学系统工程学院，湖南长沙 410073
2. 北京理工大学机械与车辆学院，北京 100081

收稿日期:2022-12-27 出版日期:2026-01-25 发布日期:2026-02-11
通讯作者: 徐任杰 E-mail:xurenjie@nudt.edu.cn
作者简介:杨克巍（1977—），男，教授，博士研究生导师，博士，主要研究方向为体系需求建模、体系结构设计与优化、系统建模与仿真
姜九瑶（1998—），女，博士研究生，主要研究方向为复杂网络、作战体系韧性评估
李际超（1990—），男，副教授，博士，主要研究方向为异质信息网络建模及分析、军事复杂系统智能决策
杨志伟（1988—），男，副教授，博士，主要研究方向为系统优化与综合集成
宫　琳（1979—），男，副教授，博士，主要研究方向为复杂系统设计与创新、体系设计与评估、知识工程
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（72071206）；国家自然科学基金青年基金（72001209）；湖南省优秀青年基金（2022JJ20047）资助课题

Review and prospect of combat-oriented system-of-systems resilience evaluation method

Kewei YANG¹, Renjie XU¹^,²^,*(), Jiuyao JIANG¹, Jichao LI¹, Zhiwei YANG¹, Lin GONG²

1. College of Systems Engineering，National University of Defense Technology，Changsha 410073，China
2. School of Mechanical Engineering，Beijing Institute of Technology，Beijing 100081，China

Received:2022-12-27 Online:2026-01-25 Published:2026-02-11
Contact: Renjie XU E-mail:xurenjie@nudt.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

未来战争中呈现出作战要素分布式更广、协同性更强、自主性更高等智能化特征，战争对抗中体系韧性则综合诠释和反映上述特点，科学可信的韧性评估对设计未来战争概念、指导智能化体系建设等具有重要的理论与应用价值。在界定韧性评估概念基础上，梳理面向作战的体系韧性评估方法并对其未来发展趋势进行展望。总结面向作战的体系韧性的概念内涵、演化模型及特征，借助系统思想从结构、功能、行为及综合视角对面向作战的体系韧性评估方法进行了分析，提出体系韧性评估的未来发展趋势。对其他领域体系韧性评估工作提供参考，全面推动智能化时代体系研究的快速发展。

关键词: 体系韧性, 面向作战, 韧性评估, 系统思想

Abstract:

In the future war, there will be more distributed, more cooperative, more independent, and intelligent characteristics of operation elements. The system-of-systems resilience in war confrontation will comprehensively interpret and reflect the above characteristics. Scientific and credible resilience evaluation has important theoretical and application value for designing the concept of future war and guiding the construction of intelligent combat system-of-systems. Since defining the concept of resilience evaluation, this paper combs out the methods of combat-oriented system-of-systems resilience evaluation and looks forward to its future development trend. It summarizes the concept connotation, the evolution model and characteristics of combat system-of-systems resilience. With the help of system thinking, this paper analyzes the combat-oriented system-of-systems resilience evaluation methods from the structure, function, behavior and comprehensive perspectives. This paper proposes the future development direction of the system-of-systems resilience evaluation. This paper also provides a reference for the system-of-systems resilience evaluation in other fields, and comprehensively promotes the rapid development of system-of-systems research in the intelligent era.

Key words: system-of-systems resilience, combat-oriented, resilience evaluation, system thinking

中图分类号:

E 917

杨克巍, 徐任杰, 姜九瑶, 李际超, 杨志伟, 宫琳. 面向作战的体系韧性评估方法研究综述及展望[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2026, 48(1): 157-171.

Kewei YANG, Renjie XU, Jiuyao JIANG, Jichao LI, Zhiwei YANG, Lin GONG. Review and prospect of combat-oriented system-of-systems resilience evaluation method[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2026, 48(1): 157-171.

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视角	工程韧性	生态韧性	社会生态韧性
内涵	系统发生扰动后的恢复韧性	承受系统状态改变的韧性	系统适应和调整的韧性
定义	系统受到扰动偏离既定稳态后，恢复到初始状态的速度	不迁移到另一个状态可以承受干扰的阈值	能持续不断预测、避免和适应扰动
目标	恢复到原来状态中的一个运行状态	将系统定位在一个稳定的状态	减少扰动发生的概率或发生后的影响
指标	恢复速度、程度	恢复时间、抵御能力、持续时长	重组能力、发展能力、适应能力
语境	单一平衡	多重平衡	适应性循环
关注	恢复、稳定	抗干扰	适应、学习、创新
干扰	低频率、高影响干扰	大、小干扰	组织管理和运行干扰
图示

序号	学科领域	定义
1	组织管理^[17]	企业有效吸收、制定针对具体情况的应对措施的能力并最终参与变革活动以利用可能威胁组织生存的破坏性意外的能力。
2	卫生^[18]	包含3个能力：吸收能力、适应能力和转变能力。吸收能力是指卫生系统利用相对水平的资源和能力，在受到冲击的情况下，继续向人口提供相同水平的基本保健服务和保护的能力；适应能力是指卫生系统参与者以更少的资源提供相同水平的医疗服务的能力，这需要进行组织调整；转变能力是指卫生系统行为者转变卫生系统功能和结构以应对变化环境的能力。
3	心理^[19]	心理过程和行为在促进个人资产或保护个人免受压力源潜在负面影响的作用。
4	基础设施^[20−22]	基础设施体系通过减少初始负面影响、适应负面影响和从负面影响中恢复来抵御破坏性事件的能力。
5	社区抗灾^[23]	将适应能力与干扰或逆境后的适应联系起来的过程。
6	社会-生态^[24]	社会生态系统发生变化时，以继续支持人类福祉的方式进行适应或转变的能力。
7	物流与供应链^[25]	物流与供应链的适应能力，能够为突发事件做好准备，应对中断，并通过在所需的连接水平上保持运营的连续性和对结构和功能的控制来从中恢复。
8	经济^[26]	区域或地方经济承受或恢复其发展增长道路的市场、竞争和环境冲击的能力。

特征/能力	组织管理	卫生	心理	基础设施	社区抗灾	物流与供应链	经济学
智能性	4	1	3	1	3	1	1
自组织	4	1	1	3	3	3	4
冗余性	3	3	1	1	1	1	3
适应性	4	3	3	3	3	3	3
抗毁性	3	2	3	3	2	2	3
鲁棒性	3	2	3	2	2	2	3
协同性	4	1	4	2	2	2	3
多样性	3	2	3	4	1	2	2
涌现性	4	1	4	3	2	1	3
抵御能力	1	4	3	4	3	3	4
适应能力	4	4	4	3	4	4	4
恢复能力	3	2	2	4	2	2	4
重构能力	2	4	2	3	2	2	4

特征	含义
智能性	武器系统可进行一定程度的自主决策，能够做出调整，以准备、响应和从破坏中恢复。
自组织	武器系统可以无需外部干预完成队形编配、任务分配和局部要素协作调整。
冗余性	确保某一个武器系统或某一类功能受损时，仍然能够依靠其他系统或可替代类型装备，保证作战能力正常持续输出。
适应性	每次扰动后及时采取物理上的修复或结构上的调整，以更好地准备、响应下一次扰动，学习到的作战经验被应用到适应能力中。
抗毁性	当遭受内部扰动或外部打击时，维持或恢复性能到一个可接受的程度。
鲁棒性	受内部扰动或外部打击时，保持性能不变的能力。
协同性	各类武器系统之间存在高度耦合关系，通过更泛在的协同实现情报、信息和资源的共享与高效利用。
涌现性	强调武器系统之间关联的泛在性，超越了传统系统“1+1>2”的线性效果。

参数	网络中的定义	面向作战的体系中的定义	数学表达式
边数节点比	网络中的边数量与节点数量的比值	体系中所消耗的资源量（成本韧性）	$ \dfrac{L}{N} $ 式中：L表示边的数量；N表示节点的数量
平均路径长度	网络任意两个节点间距离的平均值	体系中装备的物质流、能量流和信息流的传递能力（能力传递韧性）	$ \dfrac{{\displaystyle\sum\limits_{i \geqslant j} {{d_{ij}}} }}{{\dfrac{1}{2}N\left( {N + 1} \right)}} $ 式中：d_ij表示节点i与节点j之间的最短路径上的边数
网络聚集系数	网络中一个节点与邻节点之间相互连接的程度	体系中各个装备之间的相互协调能力（作战协同韧性）	$ \dfrac{{2{E_i}}}{{{k_i}\left( {{k_i} - 1} \right)}} $ 式中：k_i表示节点i连接的邻节点数量；E_i为节点i相连的k_i个节点之间实际存在的边数
自然连通度	网络中不同长度闭环数目的加权和	体系中可选择作战路径的冗余性（冗余韧性）	$ \ln \left( {\dfrac{{S'}}{N}} \right) $ 式中：S^’表示网络中路径的数量
网络鲁棒性	网络崩溃程度	体系保持自身稳定性的能力（抗毁性韧性）	$ \dfrac{{N'}}{N} $ 式中：N^’表示受到攻击后移除网络中部分节点后网络最大连通子图的节点数

面向作战的体系韧性评估方法研究综述及展望

Review and prospect of combat-oriented system-of-systems resilience evaluation method

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