面向任务的复杂系统韧性评估方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.04.17

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 1003-1011.doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.04.17

面向任务的复杂系统韧性评估方法

刘涛(), 白光晗*(), 陶俊勇(), 张云安(), 方依宁()

国防科技大学智能科学学院装备综合保障技术重点实验室, 湖南长沙 410073

收稿日期:2020-05-26 出版日期:2021-04-01 发布日期:2021-03-31
通讯作者: 白光晗 E-mail:favmoon@hotmail.com;baiguanghan@nudt.edu.cn;taojunyong@nudt.edu.cn;yazhang@nudt.edu.com;fangyining@nudt.edu.cn
作者简介:刘涛(1987-), 男, 工程师, 博士研究生, 主要研究方向为系统可靠性、系统韧性。E-mail: favmoon@hotmail.com|白光晗 (1986-), 男, 讲师, 博士, 主要研究方向为系统可靠性、系统韧性。E-mail: baiguanghan@nudt.edu.cn|陶俊勇 (1969-), 男, 教授, 博士, 主要研究方向为系统可靠性、故障诊断。E-mail: taojunyong@nudt.edu.cn|张云安 (1983-), 男, 副研究员, 博士, 主要研究方向为系统可靠性、系统韧性。E-mail: yazhang@nudt.edu.com|方依宁 (1991-), 女, 讲师, 博士, 主要研究方向为复杂系统建模与辩识。E-mail: fangyining@nudt.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71701207);国家自然科学基金(51705526);军委科技委基础加强计划技术领域基金(2019-JCJQ-JJ-180);可靠性与环境工程技术重点实验室基金(6142004004-2)

Mission-oriented resilience evaluation method for complex system

Tao LIU(), Guanghan BAI*(), Junyong TAO(), Yunan ZHANG(), Yining FANG()

Laboratory of Science and Technology on Integrated Logistics Support, College of Intelligence Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China

Received:2020-05-26 Online:2021-04-01 Published:2021-03-31
Contact: Guanghan BAI E-mail:favmoon@hotmail.com;baiguanghan@nudt.edu.cn;taojunyong@nudt.edu.cn;yazhang@nudt.edu.com;fangyining@nudt.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着战争形态加速向体系化、网络化、智能化转变, 对军事系统韧性能力提出了更高的要求。在分析系统任务与韧性评估关系的基础上, 提出一种面向任务的系统韧性评估方法。该方法首先给出一种面向任务的韧性评估框架。其次, 在绝对时间尺度下考虑系统性能在任务过程中所受影响, 并通过引入时间韧性指标, 从时间韧性和性能韧性两个维度对系统的综合韧性进行度量, 弥补了当前韧性指标未考虑任务需求及任务时间的局限。最后, 以装备保障信息交互网络为案例, 给出了当扰动及恢复均具有随机特性时, 不同任务需求及任务时间下所提韧性评估方法的应用。

关键词: 系统韧性, 韧性工程, 韧性评估, 任务需求, 时间韧性

Abstract:

As the transformation of warfare form towards systematization, networking and intelligence accelerates, higher demands are placed on the resilience of military systems. Based on the analysis of the relationship between mission requirements and system resilience, a framework of mission-oriented system resilience evaluation is introduced. Under this framework, a new resilience index is proposed, which not only accounts the impact of system performance during the process of the task in the absolute time scale, but also incorporates the index of temporal resilience. Taking the support information exchange network as an example, this paper further expounds the application of the proposed resilience measurement method by simulating several mission scenarios under different task requirements and task time when disturbance and recovery are random.

Key words: system resilience, resilience engineering, resilience measurement, mission requirement, temporal resilience

中图分类号:

N945

刘涛, 白光晗, 陶俊勇, 张云安, 方依宁. 面向任务的复杂系统韧性评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(4): 1003-1011.

Tao LIU, Guanghan BAI, Junyong TAO, Yunan ZHANG, Yining FANG. Mission-oriented resilience evaluation method for complex system[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(4): 1003-1011.

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恢复策略	所用指标
恢复策略	Tran	Nan	Henry
策略1	0.149	0.024	0.688
策略2	0.175	0.031	1

任务时间/h	策略选择
任务时间/h	恢复策略1	恢复策略2
15	0.650	0.573
20	0.675	0.680
25	0.690	0.744

恢复策略	β	任务时间/h
恢复策略	β	5	10	15	20	25	30
策略1	0	1	0.5	0.667	0.75	0.80	0.833
策略1	0.2	1	0.5	0.600	0.65	0.68	0.700
策略1	0.4	1	0.5	0.617	0.675	0.71	0.733
策略1	0.6	1	0.5	0.633	0.700	0.74	0.767
策略1	0.8	1	0.5	0.650	0.725	0.77	0.800
策略1	1	1	0.5	0.583	0.625	0.65	0.667
策略2	$\forall \beta $	1	0.5	0.467	0.600	0.68	0.733

名称	描述	数值
N	网络节点数	30
m₀	初始连接节点数	2
m	新增节点建立连接变数	1
Δ	时间敏感参数	1
N_a	当前轮次内攻击发生次数	4
p_a	每次攻击毁伤概率	0.8
a_l/步长	节点重连最少时间	80
b_l/步长	节点重连最长时间	120
a_r/步长	节点修复最少时间	160
b_r/步长	节点修复最长时间	200
w	最大失效节点数	12
λ	单位时间内打击的轮次数	0.005

恢复模式	最低性能占比/%	网络韧性R(T)
恢复模式	最低性能占比/%	β=0	β=0.5	β=1
重连	20	0.978	0.814	0.649
重连	40	0.925	0.779	0.634
重连	60	0.808	0.693	0.577
重连	80	0.210	0.203	0.195
重连	100	0.101	0.101	0.101
修复	20	0.935	0.855	0.774
修复	40	0.832	0.788	0.744
修复	60	0.750	0.728	0.706
修复	80	0.642	0.636	0.630
修复	100	0.556	0.556	0.556

面向任务的复杂系统韧性评估方法

Mission-oriented resilience evaluation method for complex system

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恢复模式	最低性能占比/%	网络韧性R(T)
恢复模式	最低性能占比/%	β=0	β=0.5	β=1
重连	20	0.772	0.629	0.485
重连	40	0.660	0.557	0.454
重连	60	0.556	0.481	0.406
重连	80	0.168	0.164	0.159
重连	100	0.101	0.101	0.101
修复	20	0.631	0.589	0.547
修复	40	0.553	0.540	0.527
修复	60	0.528	0.521	0.515
修复	80	0.493	0.492	0.491
修复	100	0.484	0.484	0.484