Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2009, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 2476-2479.

• 制导、导航与控制 • 上一篇    下一篇

多变量混沌时间序列Volterra自适应实时预测

方芬   

  1. 金陵科技学院, 江苏, 南京, 210001
  • 收稿日期:2008-08-25 修回日期:2009-04-11 出版日期:2009-10-20 发布日期:2010-01-03
  • 作者简介:方芬(1977- ),女,硕士,主要研究方向为混沌时间序列分析.E-mail:fenfang201@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    江苏省自然科学基金(06KJD110068)资助课题

Volterra adaptive real-time prediction of multivariate chaotic time series

FANG Fen   

  1. Jinling Inst. of Technology, Nanjing 210001, China
  • Received:2008-08-25 Revised:2009-04-11 Online:2009-10-20 Published:2010-01-03

摘要: 针对多变量混沌时间序列,给出一种Volterra滤波器实现结构.该滤波器利用基于奇异值分解的最小二乘法确定初始核,通过归一化最小均方差(normalized least mean square,NLMS)算法实时确定滤波系数,并用这种多变量Volterra结构对Lorenz时间序列进行仿真.计算结果表明,在无噪声情况下,该方法的实时一步预测精度比目前单变量混沌时间序列Volterra自适应预测方法的一步预测精度提高了102倍,表明这种实现结构易实现且收敛性能更好;在有噪声的情况下,该方法的实时多步预测性能优于局部多项式预测法的多步预测性能,且抗噪性更强.

Abstract: A Volterra adaptive filter is proposed for the multivariate chaotic time series.The initial Volterra kernel of the filter is determined by the least square method based on singular value decomposition,and the real time filter coefficient is determined by an NLMS(normalized least mean square) algorithm.The simulations clearly show that one-step prediction performance of this Volterra adaptive prediction method of multivariate chaotic time series improves 102 times on the prediction accuracy over those of univariate time series under the noise-free Lorenz time series,which indicates that this model has better convergence performance,and its structure is easy to implement.The multi-step prediction performance of this multivariate Volterra predictor is superior to the one of the local polynomial prediction method of multivariate chaotic time series under the noise added Lorenz time series.

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