装备平均修复时间验证方法研究综述

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.12.32

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

维修性验证是装备维修性工作的重要组成部分,平均修复时间(mean time to repair, MTTR)是维修性定量要求验证的主要参数。本文从国内外装备MTTR验证标准和手册发展情况以及装备MTTR验证常用方法两个方面综述了MTTR验证方法的国内外研究进展。介绍了美国国防部、国际电工委员会和国内相关机构颁布的MTTR验证标准和手册的发展情况,分析了标准和手册中的MTTR验证方法。总结归纳了装备MTTR验证的常用方法及应用情况,包括基于实物装备的验证方法和基于虚拟现实的验证方法。在此基础上概括了装备MTTR验证方法的研究特点,展望了未来的研究方向,并给出了研究建议。

关键词: 维修性验证, 平均修复时间, 经典数理统计学方法, 贝叶斯方法, 虚拟现实, 预定动作时间系统

Abstract:

Maintainability demonstration is an essential part of equipment maintainability work. Mean time to repair (MTTR) is the main parameter for the demonstration of the quantitative maintainability requirement. The MTTR demonstration methods research is reviewed from the aspects of the development of MTTR demonstration standards and handbooks at home and abroad and common methods for MTTR demonstration. The MTTR demonstration standards and handbooks issued by the U.S. Department of Defense, International Electrotechnical Commission and China related agencies are introduced. The MTTR demonstration methods in the above standards and handbooks are analyzed. The common methods for equipment MTTR demonstration, including physical equipment-based and virtual reality-based demonstration method, and their applications are discussed and concluded. In addition, the research features and future directions of the MTTR demonstration methods are suggested, the developing advices are proposed.

Key words: maintainability demonstration, mean time to repair (MTTR), classical mathematical statistics method, Bayesian method, virtual reality (VR), predetermined motion time system (PMTS)

中图分类号:

TJ01
O212

吴振亚, 郝建平, 陈汉青, 李皆乔, 谭继帅. 装备平均修复时间验证方法研究综述[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(12): 2931-2943.

Zhenya WU, Jianping HAO, Hanqing CHEN, Jieqiao LI, Jishuai TAN. Review on research of equipment mean time to repair demonstration methods[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(12): 2931-2943.

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符号	含义
n	试验所需样本量
α	第一类风险(生产方风险)
β	第二类风险(购买方风险)
$\begin{array}{l}\tilde{\sigma}^{2}\end{array} $	对数方差预先估计值
$\widetilde{d}^{2} $	方差预先估计值
μ₀	MTTR期望值
μ₁	MTTR不可接受值
$ \hat{M}_{\mathrm{CT}} / \mathrm{h}$	MTTR的观测值
T₁/h	外场级修复性维修总时间
r₁	外场级修复性维修所统计的维修作业数

标准(手册)号	方法编号	检验参数	分布假设	样本量	需要规定的参量
MIL-STD-471	1	修复性维修时间均值和最大值(第95百分位数)的组合	对数正态分布方差未知	不固定(序贯试验)	μ₁
MIL-STD-471	2	修复性维修时间均值、预防性维修时间均值维修时间均值、修复性维修时间最大值(至少一个均值指标和最大值指标必须被指定)	无分布假设方差未知	不小于50	μ₁, β
MIL-STD-471A	1-A	维修时间均值	对数正态分布方差已知	见方法(不小于30)	μ₀, μ₁, α, β
MIL-STD-471A	1-B	维修时间均值	无分布假设方差已知	见方法(不小于30)	μ₀, μ₁, α, β
MIL-STD-471A (修订版) MIL-HDBK-471 MIL-HDBK-470A	1-A	维修时间均值	对数正态分布方差已知	见方法(不小于30)	μ₀, μ₁, α, β
	1-B	维修时间均值	无分布假设方差已知	见方法(不小于30)	μ₀, μ₁, α, β
	8	维修时间均值和维修时间第90(95)百分位数的组合	对数正态分布方差未知	不固定(序贯试验)	μ₁
	9	修复性维修时间均值、预防性维修时间均值、维修时间均值	无分布假设方差未知	不小于30	μ₁, β

方法编号	检验参数	分布假设	样本量	需要规定的参量
1	维修时间均值	对数正态分布方差已知	见方法(不小于30)	μ₀, μ₁, α, β
2	维修时间均值	无分布假设方差已知	见方法(不小于30)	μ₀, μ₁, α, β
3	维修时间均值	无分布假设方差未知	见方法(不小于50)	μ₀, μ₁, α, β

方法编号	检验参数	分布假设	样本量	需要规定的参量
1-A	维修时间均值	对数正态分布方差已知	见方法(不小于30)	μ₀, μ₁, α, β
1-B	维修时间均值	无分布假设方差已知	见方法(不小于30)	μ₀, μ₁, α, β
⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮
8	维修时间均值和维修时间最大值(第90或95百分位数)的组合	对数正态分布方差未知	不固定(序贯试验)	μ₁
9	修复性维修时间均值、预防性维修时间均值、维修时间均值	无分布假设方差未知	不小于30	μ₁, β

方法	标准号
	MIL-STD-471	MIL-STD-471A		MIL-STD-471A(修订版) MIL-HDBK-471 MIL-HDBK-470A			IEC 60706-3 GB/T 9414.3-2012			GJB 2072 QJ 3213-2005
	2	1-A	1-B	1-A	1-B	9	1	2	3	1-A	1-B	9
控制第1类风险	—	√		√		—	√			√		—
控制第2类风险	√	√		√			√			√
最小样本量要求	√(50)	√(30)		√(30)			√(30)		√(50)	√(30)