设计变更下舰船批量订货梯次定价模型

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.03.15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对舰船后续批次订货中设计变更对建造成本的影响, 结合累积建造批量对舰船成本的降低作用, 提出采用欧式距离法计算舰船设计变更前后的相似度, 并根据相似度构建设计变更后的批量订货成本估算模型。在此基础上, 针对不同的舰船订货批量, 根据舰船首批次订货成本节约和超支两种情况, 分别通过调整目标价格和目标利润, 构建设计变更下面向成本节约的激励性梯次定价模型和面向成本超支的激励性梯次定价模型, 且在估计成本与实际成本一致时, 面向成本超支的激励性梯次定价模型退化为成本加成模型。最后通过算例验证了所提模型的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 舰船, 设计变更, 批量订货, 梯次定价, 相似度

Abstract:

In view of the influence of design change on the construction cost in the subsequent batch ordering of ships, combined with the reduction effect of cumulative construction lot size on the ship cost, the European distance method is proposed to calculate the similarity before and after the design change of ship, and the batch order cost estimation model after the design change is constructed according to the similarity. On this basis, aiming at the different ship order quantities, according to the two situations of cost saving and overspending in the first batch of ship order, the incentive tiered pricing model for cost saving and the incentive tiered pricing model for cost overspending under the design change are constructed by adjusting the target price and the target profit, respectively. When the estimated cost is consistent with the actual cost, the incentive tiered pricing model for cost overspending degenerates into a cost plus model. Finally, an example is given to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.

Key words: ship, design change, batch order, tiered pricing, similarity

中图分类号:

F810.454

谢力, 尹相平, 林名驰, 訾书宇. 设计变更下舰船批量订货梯次定价模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(3): 716-721.

Li XIE, Xiangping YIN, Mingchi LIN, Shuyu ZI. Tiered pricing model of ship batch order under design changes[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(3): 716-721.

图/表 2

参考文献 31

1	CARMEN A , JAVIER A , ANTONIO D . Subjective bonuses and target setting in budget-based incentive contracts[J]. Management Accounting Research, 2019, 43 (6): 45- 60.
2	HESAMZADEH M R , ROSELLóN J , GABRIEL S A , et al. A simple regulatory incentive mechanism applied to electricity transmission pricing and investment[J]. Energy Economics, 2018, 75 (9): 423- 439.
3	JULIEN B , ROGER G . Bidding for incentive contracts[J]. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2018, 79 (12): 95- 105.
4	EL-TANNIR A . Optimal project deadlines for mean-variance incentive contract designs[J]. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2019, 137 (11): 106018.
5	ODOLINSKI K . Contract design and performance of railway maintenance: effects of incentive intensity and performance incentive schemes[J]. Economics of Transportation, 2019, 18 (6): 50- 59.
6	BLAZEK D , SICKLES C R . The impact of knowledge accumulation and geographical spillovers on productivity and efficiency: the case of U. S. shipbuilding during WWⅡ[J]. Economic Modelling,, 2010, 27 (6): 1484- 1497. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.07.021
7	THORNTON R A , THOMPSON P . Learning from experience and learning from others: an exploration of learning and spillovers in wartime shipbuilding[J]. American Economic Review, 2001, 91 (5): 1350- 1368. doi: 10.1257/aer.91.5.1350
8	DEBORAH L C, DONNA M H, CHARLES E W. Improving naval shipbuilding project efficiency through rework reduction[D]. California: Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, 2007.
9	COUCH J C . The cost savings of multiple ship production[J]. International Shipbuilding Progress, 1963, 10 (108): 291- 300. doi: 10.3233/ISP-1963-1010802
10	杨思远. 批量生产对船舶成本的影响[J]. 造船技术, 1984, 22 (2): 19- 21.
	YANG S Y . Impact of mass production on shipbuilding costs[J]. Marine Technology, 1984, 22 (2): 19- 21.
11	钱正芳, 李积源, 吕建伟. 舰船建造费随批量变化的成长模型分析[J]. 海军工程学院学报, 1999, 11 (2): 93- 95.
	QIAN Z F , LI J Y , LYU J W . Analysis of warship cost growing curve model under the condition of group production[J]. Journal of Naval Academy of Engineering, 1999, 11 (2): 93- 95.
12	吴敏尚, 孟金炎. 船舶设计参数变化对建造成本的影响[J]. 造船技术, 1983, 21 (2): 33- 39.
	WU M S , MENG J Y . Impact of ship design parameter changes on construction cost[J]. Marine Technology, 1983, 21 (2): 33- 39.
13	ZHANG S S , LIN B Q . Impact of tiered pricing system on China's urban residential electricity consumption: survey evidences from 14 cities in Guangxi Province[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 170 (1): 1404- 1412.
14	LI C M , WANG H X , XIE X Q , et al. Tiered transferable pollutant pricing for cooperative control of air quality to alleviate cross-regional air pollution in China[J]. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 2018, 9 (5): 857- 863. doi: 10.1016/j.apr.2017.12.006
15	SAHIN O , BERTONE E , BEAL C , et al. Evaluating a novel tiered scarcity adjusted water budget and pricing structure using a holistic systems modelling approach[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2018, 215 (6): 79- 90.
16	WANG C , ZHOU K L , YANG S L . A review of residential tiered electricity pricing in China[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017, 79 (11): 533- 543.
17	XIE L, LI T J, HAN S. Incentive pricing model of equipment R & D project for civil-military integration[C]//Proc.of the 7th International Symposium on Project Management, 2019: 658-663.
18	HAN S, SUN S X. Multi-factor incentive pricing bi-level programming model for construction project[C]//Proc.of the International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering, 2019: 289-294.
19	SUN S X, YANG C B, LIN M C. Research on incentive of national defense intellectual property's conversion and application in weapon equipment's R & D process[C]//Proc.of the International Conference on Management Science and Engineering, 2018: 165-170.
20	LIU W J, HAN S. A study of the tranching pricing method in target price contract[C]//Proc.of the 6th International Symposium on Project Management, 2018: 632-637.
21	ZHANG C Y, LIN M C. Optimization of cost plus incentive fee contract in equipment acquisition considering cost revelation[C]//Proc.of the International Conference on Management Science & Engineering, 2018: 60-66.
22	QIN X W , SHAO L S , JIANG Z Z , et al. Contract design for equipment after-sales service with business interruption insurance[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2020, 284 (1): 176- 187. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.12.027
23	刘小虎, 李积源. 基于神经网络的舰船建造费用预测分析[J]. 海军工程大学学报, 2001, 13 (1): 96- 98. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-3486.2001.01.024
	LIU X H , LI J Y . Forecast about military equipment acquisition cost based on neural network[J]. Journal of Naval University of Engineering, 2001, 13 (1): 96- 98. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-3486.2001.01.024
24	HOSSAIN T , BAE S J , SEOL S S . Experience curve pricing and cost inflation: evidence from South Korea[J]. Pan-pacific Journal of Business Research, 2013, 4 (1): 26- 42.
25	HA J B, CAI J, XIAO L J. Application of attribute weight determination and attribute similarity calculation based on case reasoning in urban rail transit cases[C]//Proc.of the 2nd International Conference on Global Economy, Finance and Humanities Research, 2019: 291-295.
26	LIU D H , CHEN X H , PENG D . Some cosine similarity measures and distance measures between q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets[J]. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 2019, 34 (7): 1572- 1587. doi: 10.1002/int.22108
27	WIESE I , SARNA N , WIESE L , et al. Concept acquisition and improved in-database similarity analysis for medical data[J]. Distributed and Parallel Databases, 2019, 37 (2): 297- 321. doi: 10.1007/s10619-018-7249-x
28	HONG B , YU M C . A collaborative filtering algorithm based on correlation coefficient[J]. Neural Computing and Applications, 2019, 31 (12): 8317- 8326. doi: 10.1007/s00521-018-3857-7
29	CHO J , SONG H H . Dimensionless parameters determining the effect of dilution on ignition delay of syngas and hydrocarbon fuels[J]. Combustion and Flame, 2020, 213 (3): 279- 290.
30	HU Q , SI X S , ZHANG Q H , et al. A rotating machinery fault diagnosis method based on multi-scale dimensionless indicators and random forests[J]. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 2020, 139 (5): 106609.
31	MOLL E C , APLIN C S , HENDERSON D L . Time-dependent integral transport in one-dimensional infinite media using dimensionless variables and the reduced collision formulation[J]. Annals of Nuclear Energy, 2020, 136 (2): 106990.

状态	排水量/T	长度/m	型宽/m	吃水/m	型深/m	航速/kn
设计变更前	8 000.00	154.00	17.60	6.80	10.20	30.00
设计变更后	8 600.00	156.00	18.00	7.10	10.60	31.00

订货批量k	设计不变时平均成本估计	设计变更后平均成本估计	设计变更后批次订货梯次价格
订货批量k	设计不变时平均成本估计	设计变更后平均成本估计	首批次成本节约	首批次成本超支
1	6 981.79	7 810.85	8 324.86	8 201.40
2	6 886.04	7 723.72	8 233.37	8 109.91
3	6 804.53	7 649.55	8 155.49	8 032.02
4	6 733.46	7 584.87	8 087.59	7 964.11
5	6 670.41	7 527.50	8 027.34	7 903.88
6	6 613.73	7 475.92	7 973.18	7 849.72

[1]	郑诺希, 李武, 周小强, 刘钢. 多属性相似度一致性投影决策法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(9): 2869-2877.
[2]	王峻洲, 王华伟, 侯召国. 基于相似体系的民机结构超手册维修案例分析[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(9): 2978-2985.
[3]	张涛, 杨小冈, 卢瑞涛, 谢学立, 刘闯. 基于关键点的遥感图像舰船目标检测[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(8): 2437-2447.
[4]	李润林, 邹焕新, 曹旭, 成飞, 贺诗甜, 李美霖. 基于中心点和语义信息的多方向遥感舰船检测[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(6): 1772-1781.
[5]	陈冬, 句彦伟. 基于语义分割实现的SAR图像舰船目标检测[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(4): 1195-1201.
[6]	卢盈齐, 范成礼, 付强, 朱晓雯, 李威. 基于改进IFRS相似度和信息熵的反导作战目标威胁评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(4): 1230-1238.
[7]	潘超凡, 李润生, 许岩, 胡庆, 牛朝阳, 刘伟. 基于感知向量的光学遥感图像舰船检测[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(12): 3631-3640.
[8]	雷禹, 冷祥光, 周晓艳, 孙忠镇, 计科峰. 基于改进ResNet网络的复数SAR图像舰船目标识别方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(12): 3652-3660.
[9]	贾晓雅, 汪洪桥, 杨亚聃, 崔忠马, 熊斌. 基于YOLO框架的无锚框SAR图像舰船目标检测[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(12): 3703-3709.
[10]	李永刚, 朱卫纲, 黄琼男, 李云涛, 何永华. 复杂背景下SAR图像近岸舰船目标检测[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(10): 3096-3103.
[11]	刘海涛, 邵松世, 张志华. 基于任务的k/n(G)系统舰船备件需求预测[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(8): 2189-2196.
[12]	陈冬, 句彦伟. 基于改进型YOLOv3的SAR图像舰船目标检测[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(4): 937-943.
[13]	熊振宇, 崔亚奇, 熊伟, 顾祥岐. 卫星与雷达位置数据自适应关联[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(1): 91-98.
[14]	孙嘉赤, 邹焕新, 邓志鹏, 李美霖, 曹旭, 马倩. 基于级联卷积神经网络的港口多方向舰船检测与分类[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(9): 1903-1910.
[15]	季玙璠, 王伦文, 张孟伯. 通信辐射源运动轨迹相似性分析[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(9): 1920-1926.