基于任务的k/n(G)系统舰船备件需求预测

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.08.21

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8): 2189-2196.doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.08.21

基于任务的k/n(G)系统舰船备件需求预测

刘海涛^1,*, 邵松世², 张志华²

1. 海军工程大学基础部, 湖北武汉 430033
2. 海军工程大学舰船与海洋学院, 湖北武汉 430033

收稿日期:2020-08-10 出版日期:2021-07-23 发布日期:2021-08-05
通讯作者: 刘海涛
作者简介:刘海涛(1982—), 男, 讲师, 博士, 主要研究方向为装备保障与可靠性|邵松世(1979—), 男, 副教授, 博士, 主要研究方向为装备综合保障|张志华(1965—), 男, 教授, 博士, 主要研究方向为装备综合保障、可靠性理论
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(61372167);国家自然科学基金(61379104)

Task based demand forecasting of warship spares for k/n(G) system

Haitao LIU^1,*, Songshi SHAO², Zhihua ZHANG²

1. Department of Fundamentals, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China
2. College of Naval Architecture & Ocean Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China

Received:2020-08-10 Online:2021-07-23 Published:2021-08-05
Contact: Haitao LIU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对k/n(G)系统在事后维修与任务后检修相结合条件下的舰船备件需求预测问题，在备件寿命服从指数分布的条件下，首先建立了k/n(G)系统的备件需求预测模型，并给出了备件需求特征。然后，基于方便理解和简便计算的需要，以伽马型单部件需求为基础，给出了备件需求模型的工程解释和近似计算方法，并对近似算法的精度进行了验证。结果表明，备件需求模型可以更好地描述k/n(G)系统在一次海上任务期内的备件需求，近似算法具有较高的精度，可以为舰船装备备件配置问题提供参考。

关键词: 舰船备件, 任务后检修, 事后维修, 指数型备件, 需求预测

Abstract:

For warship spares demand forecasting of k/n(G) system with the combination of overhaul after the task and maintenance afterwards, firstly, a spares demand forecasting model of k/n(G) system is established for exponential distribution spares, and the demand characteristics of the spares is given. Secondly, for convenient understanding and calculating, an engineering interpretation and approximate calculation method of spares demand model is given based on the Gamma single spare parts. And the approximate algorithm is verified. Results show that the demand model describes the spares demand of k/n(G) system in a task period well, and the approximate calculation method takes a good precision, and could make a reference for spares configuration of warship equipment.

Key words: warship spares, overhaul after the task, maintenance afterwards, exponential spares, demand forecast

中图分类号:

E911
V125.7

刘海涛, 邵松世, 张志华. 基于任务的k/n(G)系统舰船备件需求预测[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(8): 2189-2196.

Haitao LIU, Songshi SHAO, Zhihua ZHANG. Task based demand forecasting of warship spares for k/n(G) system[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(8): 2189-2196.

图/表 8

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参考文献 23

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备件	j
备件	0	1	2	3	4
p′_j	0.670 3	0.282 0	0.044 5	0.002 9	1.78×10^-5

备件	j
备件	0	1	2	3	4
p_j	0.679 9	0.262 3	0.050 6	0.006 5	6.28×10^-4

任务时间/h	备件故障率	λT₀	分布平均误差	备件平均需求量
任务时间/h	备件故障率	λT₀	分布平均误差	真实值	近似值	相对误差
1 000	0.000 05	0.05	0.002	0.195	0.196	0.004
	0.000 10	0.10	0.007	0.381	0.386	0.013
	0.000 50	0.50	0.038	1.624	1.654	0.018
	0.001 00	1.00	0.061	2.585	2.438	0.057
2 000	0.000 01	0.02	5×10^-4	0.079	0.079	7×10^-4
	0.000 10	0.20	0.015	0.728	0.751	0.032
	0.000 50	1.00	0.061	2.585	2.438	0.057
	0.000 75	1.50	0.075	2.628	2.900	0.104
4 000	0.000 01	0.04	0.002	0.157	0.157	0.003
	0.000 10	0.40	0.034	1.347	1.394	0.035
	0.000 25	1.00	0.061	2.585	2.438	0.057
	0.000 50	2.00	0.080	2.032	3.592	0.768

k, n	λT₀	分布平均误差	备件平均需求量
k, n	λT₀	分布平均误差	真实值	近似值	相对误差
k=1, n=3	0.05	0.002	0.146	0.147	0.002
	0.1	0.006	0.286	0.287	0.005
	0.5	0.044	1.202	1.252	0.042
	1	0.056	2.040	2.099	0.029
k=2, n=3	0.05	0.002	0.147	0.152	0.039
	0.1	0.006	0.287	0.304	0.060
	0.5	0.050	1.157	1.160	0.003
	1	0.097	1.443	1.562	0.083
k=1, n=4	0.05	0.002	0.195	0.195	8×10^-5
	0.1	0.005	0.281	0.382	6×10^-4
	0.5	0.030	1.584	1.617	0.021
	1	0.057	2.660	2.722	0.023
k=3, n=4	0.05	0.003	0.196	0.205	0.051
	0.1	0.008	0.382	0.408	0.067
	0.5	0.055	1.359	1.313	0.034
	1	0.067	1.185	1.123	0.052
k=1, n=6	0.05	0.002	0.293	0.293	2×10^-7
	0.1	0.004	0.571	0.571	6×10^-6
	0.5	0.021	2.363	2.372	0.004
	1	0.042	3.860	3.918	0.015
k=2, n=7	0.05	0.002	0.341	0.341	1×10^-6
	0.1	0.004	0.666	0.666	3×10^-5
	0.5	0.021	2.763	2.792	0.010
	1	0.034	4.655	4.533	0.026
k=3, n=7	0.05	0.002	0.341	0.341	6×10^-5
	0.1	0.005	0.666	0.667	6×10^-4
	0.5	0.025	2.799	2.829	0.010 6
	1	0.040 7	4.810 1	4.601	0.043 4
k=4, n=10	0.05	0.001 6	0.487 7	0.488	8×10^-7
	0.1	0.004 0	0.951 6	0.952	3×10^-5
	0.5	0.017 3	3.963 8	3.989	0.006
	1	0.031 5	6.921 5	6.479	0.064

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基于任务的k/n(G)系统舰船备件需求预测

Task based demand forecasting of warship spares for k/n(G) system

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