装备体系可靠性概念、建模与预计方法研究

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.06.15

Abstract

Abstract:

Weapon system of systems (WSoS) executes complex and diverse tasks, and its reliability directly affects the readiness and effectiveness of equipment. Traditional reliability modeling and prediction methods do not fully consider the resource sharing and information fusion characteristics between WSoS constituent system, making it difficult to meet the requirements of modern equipment systematization and clustering. Therefore, this paper provides the relative concept of WSoS reliability, and proposes a method for WSoS reliability modeling and prediction based on the generalized effective OODA (observation, orientation, decision, action) loop. Firstly, the analysis for the concepts related to systems and WSoS reliability is conducted, providing the connotation of WSoS reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, and safety concepts. Secondly, by considering the heterogeneity and directionality of WSoS nodes, an generalized OODA network model of WSoS is established under resource and information sharing. Then, considering the random, deliberate attack failures and reconfiguration strategies of WSoS nodes and communication links, a generalized WSoS reliability modeling and prediction method based on OODA loop is proposed. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the above-mentioned methods are validated using an unmanned WSoS consisting of 100 hetero-geneous unmanned aerial vehicles, thereby improving the combat effectiveness of the WSoS.

Key words: weapon system of systems (WSoS), effective observation, orientation, decision, action (OODA) loop, OODA network model, reliability modeling, reliability prediction

CLC Number:

Zhiwei CHEN, Luogeng ZHANG, Xiaotong FANG, Yuan YUAN, Weiwei CUI, Hongyan DUI, Dongpao HONG. Reliability concepts, modeling, and prediction methods for weapon system of systems[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2024, 46(6): 1975-1985.

Figures/Tables 13

Table 1

Conceptualization of generic quality characteristics of equipment systems and weapon system of systems"

通用质量特性	装备系统	装备体系
可靠性	可靠性是装备在规定条件下和规定时间内完成规定功能的能力, 是一种评价装备是否容易发生故障的特性, 着眼于减少或消灭故障, 可通过设计赋予, 并在生产中给予保证。	装备体系可靠性是在规定的条件下和规定的时间内, 完成规定任务的能力。装备体系任务可靠性通常是指装备体系在任务剖面内完成规定任务使命的能力, 着重于表征装备体系应对内外部干扰并持续完成任务的能力。
维修性	维修性是装备在规定的条件下和规定的时间内, 按规定的程序和方法进行维修时保持或恢复其规定状态的能力, 是一种评价装备是否容易维护和修理的特性。维修性则着眼于以最短的时间、最低限度的保障资源及最节省的费用, 使装备保持或迅速恢复到良好状态。	装备体系维修性是装备体系通过动态重构调整其自身配置来响应环境中的不同情况以改变其故障和性能降级状态的能力。动态重构技术是对维修性技术的一种拓展, 是一种主动地应对故障影响以保证体系持续有效运行的手段。
保障性	保障性是指主装备和保障系统有机结合后能满足平时战备和战时使用要求的能力, 是一种评价装备在使用和维修过程中能否得到及时有效的保障的特性。主装备在正常使用、维修、测试过程中又必须依赖于保障予以支持, 要求其易于保障, 需要设计的“好保障”, 也需要由保障设备、备件、技术资料、保障设施、保障人员等各种保障资源和一套运行管理制度组成的保障系统, 运行时要实现“保障好”的目标。	装备体系保障性是通过高效、经济、动态地配置与优化保障体系资源及保障活动, 应对各类不确定性变化, 力求对装备体系的保障需求做出快速反应, 最大化提高装备体系的保障效能, 以满足作战需求。装备体系保障性主要关注两个方面: ①一体化保障系统: 保障运行、保障资源一体化, 装备体系的一体化保障性设计注重保障资源的调度和管理; ②脆弱点的保障, 即装备体系关键要素的增强与保障。
测试性	测试性是装备(系统、子系统、设备或组件)能够及时而准确地确定其状态(可工作、不可工作或性能下降), 并隔离其内部故障的能力, 是一种评价产品故障预测和故障诊断效率的特性。维修依赖于测试, 通过测试进行故障监测和隔离。	装备体系测试性是对装备体系状态认知及其脆弱点状态感知的能力。在装备体系中, 动态重构能力在很大程度上得到了智能感知和诊断技术的支持, 并允许系统发生安全失效, 避免事故。
安全性	安全性是指装备所具有的不导致人员伤亡、系统毁坏、重大财产损失或不危及人员健康和环境的能力, 是一种评价装备能否以可接受的事故风险完成规定功能的特性。在实施上述过程中应少出或不出安全事故, 当故障后果导致不安全时, 可靠性问题就成了安全性问题。	装备体系安全是装备体系的风险在可接受范围的现象或状态。装备体系安全性指武器装备体系将风险控制在可接受范围的能力。体系安全性问题主要体现在3个方面: ①同脆弱性概念类似, 通过体系架构分析得到体现致命安全性的问题; ②体系涌现性带来的安全性问题, 主要包括单系统内部异常在体系中的传播, 多个系统异常共同作用导致的事故, 即多系统交互异常产生的事故; ③装备体系演化更新过程产生的事故。

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装备体系节点和链路类型	节点功能
探测节点(S)	对目标方侦查, 获取目标方情报, 感知战场环境
决策节点(D)	分析处理战场信息与态势, 指挥与控制
火力节点(W)	对目标方目标进行精确的火力打击和电子干扰等
通讯链路(E)	不同节点之间信息交流的主要媒介

参数	取值	参数	取值
N_sim	1 000	T_sim	100
P_SD	0.7	P_DW	0.8
λ_S	0.000 25	μ_S	0.004
λ_D	0.000 12	μ_D	0.007
λ_W	0.000 15	μ_W	0.005

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Reliability concepts, modeling, and prediction methods for weapon system of systems

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