无失效数据下弹上机电产品加速贮存寿命评估方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2023.07.40

Abstract

Abstract:

To solve the problem of existing accelerated storage life assessment method not applicable to zero-failure case, and low precision of two-parameter Weibull distribution model in fitting high-reliability and long-life electromechanical products, an accelerated storage life assessment method for mechanical and electrical products of missile is proposed based on E-Bayes theory and three-parameter Weibull distribution model. Firstly, the insufficient precision problem of two-parameter Weibull distribution in fitting high-reliability and long-life electromechanical products is discussed, and the life distribution model of missile electromechanical products is established based on three-parameter Weibull distribution model. Single stepping accelerated storage life test results are equivalent to several time truncated test results based on Arrhenius model and Nelson failure assumption, and the E-Bayes definition and theorem is introduced to solve the problem of failure probability estimation under zero-failure case. For the Weibull parameters estimation problem in complex equivalent conversion formula, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is given to achieve the high precision solution for parameters, and the Monte Carlo method is designed to solve the lower confidence limit of reliable storage life, finally achieving the purpose of efficient storage life assessment for electromechanical products of missile. The validity and rationality of the proposed method is tested and verified through taking certain missile inertial measurement unit (IMU) as application object.

Key words: electromechanical products of missile, accelerated storage life, E-Bayes theory, three-parameter Weibull distribution, particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm

CLC Number:

TB114.3

Leilei ZHANG, Xi LIU, Xulin LIU, Hongjun YANG, Feng ZHANG. Accelerated storage life assessment method under zero-failure data for electromechanical products of missile[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 45(7): 2287-2294.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1

Fig.2

Table 1

Fig.3

Table 2

Fig.4

Fig.5

Fig.6

References 24

1	孟涛, 张仕念, 易当详, 等. 导弹贮存延寿技术概论[M]. 北京: 中国宇航出版社, 2013.
	MENG T , ZHANG S N , YI D X , et al. Life extension technology generality of missile storage[M]. Beijing: China Aerospace Press, 2013.
2	CHEN Y X , ZHANG Q , CAI Z Y , et al. Storage reliability assessment model based on competition failure of multi-components in missile[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2017, 28 (3): 606- 616. doi: 10.21629/JSEE.2017.03.20
3	穆希辉, 赵晓东. 通用弹药贮存可靠性研究面临的问题及对策[J]. 含能材料, 2019, 27 (12): 981- 983. doi: 10.11943/CJEM2019181
	MU X H , ZHAO X D . Research progress on storage reliability of general ammunition[J]. Chinese Journal of Energetic Materials, 2019, 27 (12): 981- 983. doi: 10.11943/CJEM2019181
4	ZHANG Z P , WANG J F , WANG B , et al. The storage life assessment of PEEK based on accelerated degradation test[J]. International Journal of Information and Management Sciences, 2018, 29 (4): 425- 434.
5	MUHAMMAD N , FANG Z G , SHAH S Y , et al. Reliability and remaining life assessment of an electronic fuze using accelerated life testing[J]. Micromachines, 2020, 11 (3): 272. doi: 10.3390/mi11030272
6	FAN T H , WANG Y F . Comparison of optimal accelerated life tests with competing risks model under exponential distribution[J]. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 2020, 37 (3): 902- 919.
7	赵晓东, 穆希辉. 加速度计贮存试验及寿命评估方法研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2020, 41 (6): 1227- 1235.
	ZHAO X D , MU X H . Storage life evaluation of accelerometer based on accelerator factor coefficient of variation[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2020, 41 (6): 1227- 1235.
8	CHEON S , JEONG H , HWANG S Y , et al. Accelerated life testing to predict service life and reliability for an appliance door hinge[J]. Procedia Manufacturing, 2015, 1, 169- 180. doi: 10.1016/j.promfg.2015.09.082
9	周洁, 姚军, 宋燕. 基于分段非线性Arrhenius的贮存寿命评估方法[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2015, 41 (4): 744- 750. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2014.0319
	ZHOU J , YAO J , SONG Y . Storage life evaluation method based on segmented nonlinear Arrhenius model[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2015, 41 (4): 744- 750. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2014.0319
10	WANG L . Inference of constant-stress accelerated life test for a truncated distribution under progressive censoring[J]. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2017, 44, 743- 757. doi: 10.1016/j.apm.2017.02.011
11	申争光, 苑景春, 董静宇, 等. 弹上设备加速寿命试验中加速因子估计方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2015, 37 (8): 1948- 1952.
	SHEN Z G , YUAN J C , DONG J Y , et al. Research on acceleration factor estimation method of accelerated life test of missile-borne equipment[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2015, 37 (8): 1948- 1952.
12	赵晓东, 穆希辉. 无失效数据下计算装置融合贮存寿命评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43 (1): 272- 278.
	ZHAO X D , MU X H . Method for estimating storage life of computing devices under zero-failure data[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43 (1): 272- 278.
13	ROCHA C G M , HENRIQUES R V B , PEREIRA C E , et al. Accelerated life test for integration of supply chain planning and intelligent systems[J]. Science Direct, 2016, 49 (12): 1068- 1073.
14	GJB 5103—2004. 弹药元件加速寿命试验方法[S]. 北京: 中国人民解放军总装备部, 2004.
	GJB 5103—2004. Accelerated life test method of ammunition component[S]. Beijing: General Armament Department of PLA, 2004.
15	郑锐. 三参数威布尔分布参数估计及在可靠性分析中的应用[J]. 振动与冲击, 2015, 34 (5): 78- 81. doi: 10.13465/j.cnki.jvs.2015.05.014
	ZHENG R . Parameter estimation of three-parameter Weibull distribution and its application in reliability analysis[J]. Jouanal of Vibration and Shock, 2015, 34 (5): 78- 81. doi: 10.13465/j.cnki.jvs.2015.05.014
16	RAO A K , PANDEY H , MUDHOLKAR G S , et al. Bayes estimation under different loss function for exponentiated Weibull distribution[J]. Arya Bhatta Journal of Mathematics and Informatics, 2021, 13 (1): 91- 98.
17	YANG S , LI S L , WANG Y , et al. Reliability analysis for CNC gear hobbing machine with a new hybrid model of dual Weibull distribution[J]. International Journal of Performability Engineering, 2020, 16 (1): 98- 106. doi: 10.23940/ijpe.20.01.p11.98106
18	NELSON W . Accelerated life testing step-stress models and data analysis[J]. IEEE Trans.on Reliability, 1980, 29 (2): 103- 108.
19	NATLA S R , RAJ K J , CHILAKA R . Life estimation of thermally stressed insulating papers of rotating machines by using Arrhenius model[J]. Materials Today: Proceedings, 2017, 4 (9): 10643- 10647. doi: 10.1016/j.matpr.2017.06.435
20	韩明. 可靠性工程中参数的E-Bayes估计法及应用[J]. 兵工学报, 2009, 30 (11): 1473- 1476. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-1093.2009.11.013
	HAN M . E-bayesian estimation method of parameter and its applications in reliability engineering[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2009, 30 (11): 1473- 1476. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-1093.2009.11.013
21	MUHAMMAD S , TAUSEEF A , SYED A R G , et al. A novel method developed to estimate Weibull parameters[J]. Energy Reports, 2020, 6, 1715- 1733. doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2020.06.017
22	TAGHAVIPOUR A , MASOUDI R , AZAD N L , et al. Control-relevant parameter estimation application to a model-based PHEV power management system[J]. Optimal Control Applications and Methods, 2017, 38 (6): 1148- 1167. doi: 10.1002/oca.2320
23	MORTEZA Z . Improvement of the ANFIS-based wave predictor models by the particle swarm optimization[J]. Journal of Ocean Engineering and Science, 2020, 5 (1): 84- 99. doi: 10.1016/j.joes.2019.09.002
24	WANG Z , JIAO X H . Optimization of the powertrain and energy management control parameters of a hybrid hydraulic vehicle based on improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization[J]. Engineering Optimization, 2021, 53 (11): 1835- 1854. doi: 10.1080/0305215X.2020.1829612

序号	样本量n	失效数r	失效概率p_EB
1	12	0	0.003 4
2	12	0	0.003 7
3	12	0	0.004 1
4	12	0	0.004 6
5	12	0	0.005 1
6	12	0	0.005 8
7	12	0	0.006 8
8	12	0	0.008 1
9	12	0	0.010 1
10	12	0	0.013 3
11	12	1	0.058 7
12	11	0	0.110 9

[1]	Jianfeng YANG, Heye XIAO, Liang LI, Junqiang BAI, Weihao DONG. Multi-level module partition method of UAV based on fuzzy clustering and expert scoring mechanism [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(8): 2530-2539.
[2]	Siyu DU, Yinghui QUAN, Minghui SHA, Wen FANG, Mengdao XING. Waveform optimization for SFA radar based on evolutionary particle swarm optimization [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(3): 834-840.
[3]	Kun WANG, Shuxian HOU, Li WANG. APU performance parameter prediction model based on adaptive variation PSO-SVM [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(2): 526-536.
[4]	Shuai ZHAO, Songtao LIU, Huiyang WANG. LPI radar waveform recognition algorithm based on PSO-CNN [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(12): 3552-3563.
[5]	Zhigang SU, Xinran CHEN, Jingtang HAO. Circular array beamforming method based on particle swarm optimization [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(7): 1449-1454.
[6]	YANG Yongjian, FAN Xiaoguang, GAN Yi, ZHUO Zhenfu, WANG Shengda, ZHAO Peng. Coverage optimization of sensor network based on improved particle swarm optimization [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2017, 39(2): 310-315.
[7]	LIU Yong-chun, WANG Guang-xue, LI Ping, YAN Xiao-peng. Fully affine SAR image registration method based on feature points [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2015, 37(6): 1259-1265.
[8]	ZHUO Zhen-fu, YANG Yong-jian, FAN Xiao-guang, WANG Sheng-da,NAN Jian-guo, WANG Jiu-chong. Array antennas pattern synthesis based on improved dichotomy particle swarm optimization [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2015, 37(11): 2460-2466.
[9]	FU Mengyin1，2， JIN Lu1，2， WANG Meiling1，2， YANG Yi. Segmentation of bottom shadow of vehicle based on #br# improved PSO-MBCV algorithm [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2014, 36(7): 1439-1445.
[10]	ZHAI Ya-li, ZHANG Zhi-hua, LI Da-wei. Performance reliability evaluation based on impact theory [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2014, 36(10): 2108-2112.
[11]	CHEN Pan， WU Xiao-feng. Optimal extended position call-search method for UUVs’ formation [J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2013, 35(5): 987-992.
[12]	WANG Yi-chuan, SHAN Gan-lin, TONG Jun. Solving sensor-target assignment problem based on cooperative memetic PSO algorithm [J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2013, 35(5): 1000-1007.
[13]	LIU Fu-cai, DOU Jin-mei, Wang Shu-en. T-S fuzzy model identification based on intelligent optimization algorithms [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2013, 35(12): 2643-2650.
[14]	TANG Shang-qin, HUANG Chang-qiang，HU Jie, WU Wen-chao. Threat equivalent and improved PSO algorithm based real-time method of UCAV route planning [J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2010, 32(8): 1706-1710.
[15]	LV Xiao-ming1, HUANG Kao-li2, LIAN Guang-yao2. Optimizing strategy of system level fault diagnosis based on chaos particle swarm optimization [J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2010, 32(1): 217-220.

Accelerated storage life assessment method under zero-failure data for electromechanical products of missile

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 8

References 24

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

检测次序	试验温度/℃	试验时长/h	样本量	失效数
1	65	416	12	0
2	65	425	12	0
3	65	430	12	0
4	80	310	12	0
5	80	302	12	0
6	80	316	12	0
7	95	220	12	0
8	95	213	12	0
9	95	225	12	0
10	105	126	12	0
11	105	132	12	1
12	105	120	11	0