Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 2707-2713.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2018.12.13

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Research on risk transfer GERT of complex equipment systems based on opportunity theory#br#

WANG Ying, SUN Yun, MENG Xiangfei, QI Yao, LI Chao   

  1. College of Equipment Management and UAV Engineering, Air Force Engineering University, Xi’an 710051, China
  • Online:2018-11-30 Published:2018-11-30

Abstract:

To solve the problems of the single type of risk transfer and incomplete analysis of risk mechanism when performing tasks in complex equipment systems, an uncertain random graph review technical model is constructed. Firstly, based on the characteristics of the complex equipment system and the opportunity theory, the risk degree and the uncertainty random momentum function are defined, and the gragh evaluation review technique model is constructed on the basis of the risk element and flow. Secondly, node risk, system risk and risk element importance are introduced to further describe the risk transfer relationship. Then, the moment estimation is used to deal with the reliability of experts, the improved quantum entropy model is used to solve the maximum entropy model, and the uncertainty distribution and the probability density functions are obtained. On this basis, the momentum function is obtained and the parameters are calculated. Finally, the paper take a certain fighter’s Cobra maneuvering mission as an example to assess flight risks, analyze risk mechanisms, and verify the effectiveness of the model.

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