Abstract:

Aiming at the fuzzy description and unspecific analysis of hazard coupled conduction in materiel activities, an improved graph evaluation and review technique （GERT）model considering random distribution is built. The extended parameters of system hazard degree, hazard coupling elements weightiness and hazard path membership degree are put forward to further depict microcosmic hazard information of materiel activities. The variables of the improved GERT model are configured based on the system coupling theory and the maximum entropy (ME) method, and the quantum harmony search algorithm is designed to calculate the maximum entropy model for density estimation of hazard degree. Finally, improved GERT is analyzed for the battle plane training in subject of “high velocity at low altitude”. The result shows that the mutual influence relationship among hazards in the random process of materiel activities is reflected adequately by the improved GERT model, as well as other concerned microcosmic information, with fitting accuracy and application.