终端区空域规划运行评价指标体系

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.04.16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了合理分配管制资源,保障高效运作终端区,通过对终端区空域规划运行效能进行量化分析,进而掌握其运行情况及发展形势。首先建立了基于8类关键性能领域的终端区空域规划运行评价指标体系。然后采用状态分类评估法构造综合评价函数,利用基于随机森林(random forest, RF)算法的可拓层次分析法(extension analytic hierarchy process, EAHP)分析计算指标权重,达到综合考虑指标影响、加强指标量化程度、减少研究过程主观性的目的。最后,以广州终端区和武汉进近为例,对八大关键性能指标进行实例分析,采用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)模拟验证了指标计算结果的可靠性,提升了指标的认可度,验证了系统评价结果的准确性。

关键词: 终端区, 指标体系, 指标权重, 运行效能

Abstract:

In order to reasonably allocate control resources and ensure the safe and efficient operation of the terminal area, quantitative analysis of the airspace planning and operation efficiency of the terminal area is used to master its operation and development situation. Firstly, an evaluation index system is established for terminal area airspace planning and operation based on eight key performance areas. Then, the state classification evaluation method is used to construct a comprehensive evaluation function, and the extensional analytic hierarchy process based on random forest algorithm is used to analyze and calculate the index weights. The purpose of comprehensively considering the indexes, strengthening the quantitative degree of indexes, and reducing the subjectivity of the research process is achieved. Finally, taking Guangzhou terminal area and Wuhan approach as examples, the eight key performance indexes are analyzed in detail. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to verify the reliability of the index calculation results, improve the recognition degree of the indexes, and verify the accuracy of the system evaluation results.

Key words: terminal area, index system, weight of index, operational efficiency

中图分类号:

O232

田勇, 孙梦圆, 万莉莉. 终端区空域规划运行评价指标体系[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(4): 851-862.

Yong TIAN, Mengyuan SUN, Lili WAN. Evaluation index system of airspace planning and operation in terminal area[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(4): 851-862.

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准则层	指标
安全P₁	容流告警次数P₁₂,落地航空器五边最后间隔余度P₁₂,航迹对潜在冲突告警时间P₁₃,冲突次数P₁₄,超过监视告警参数的统计时长P₁₅, 5/5~10 n mile内航空器对数量P₁₆,潜在冲突最接近距离P₁₇;
效率P₂	进场飞行效率P₂₁,航班放行正常率P₂₂,非直线系数P₂₃;
延误P₃	飞行程序管制适用性P₃₁,高峰小时延误P₃₂,进场航班延误架次比P₃₃,全天平均延误P₃₄,延误成本P₃₅,进场航班平均延误时间P₃₆;
容量P₄	单机场终端区跑道容量利用率P₄₁,终端区边界点容量P₄₂,机场离场容量P₄₃,终端区容量饱和度P₄₄,机场进离场容量P₄₅,终端区小时高峰值P₄₆,机场进场容量P₄₇,扇区容量饱和度P₄₈;
环境P₅	噪声等级P₅₁,燃油消耗P₅₂,污染物排放P₅₄;
可预测性P₆	恶劣天气影响占比P₆₁,延误变化率P₆₂,终端区实际流量与计划流量之比P₆₃;
灵活性P₇	航空器连续爬升/下降性能P₇₁,特殊空域航班使用时长占比P₇₂;
空域结构P₈	终端区进出点数量P₈₆,终端区边界小角度交叉角数量P₈₄,双向航路占比P₈₁,边界交叉点到终端区边界的距离P₈₃,飞行可用高度层数量P₈₂,不同类型不同角度的交叉点数量P₈₅

区域	P₁₁	P₁₂	P₁₃	P₁₄	P₁₅	P₁₆	P₁₇	P₂₁	P₂₂	P₂₃
1	0.500 0	0.333 3	0.153 8	0.000 0	0.813 8	0.109 9	0.856 2	0.083 5	0.266 7	0.300 0
2	0.000 0	0.241 7	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.062 5	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.597 8	0.350 6	0.309 4
区域	P₃₁	P₃₂	P₃₃	P₃₄	P₃₅	P₃₆	P₄₁	P₄₂	P₄₃	P₄₄
1	0.628 6	0.431 8	0.330 7	0.403 8	0.178 4	0.025 5	0.430 6	0.266 7	0.300 0	0.100 0
2	0.753 4	0.009 8	0.032 0	0.239 2	0.114 4	0.004 1	0.791 9	0.350 6	0.309 4	0.707 8
区域	P₄₅	P₄₆	P₄₇	P₄₈	P₅₁	P₅₂	P₅₃	P₆₁	P₆₂	P₆₃
1	0.300 0	0.5000	0.300 0	0.083 2	0.549 0	0.423 1	0.613 9	0.000 0	0.407 3	0.075 9
2	0.342 8	0.625 0	0.376 2	0.888 8	0.468 8	0.139 3	0.243 3	0.043 2	0.028 9	0.004 5
区域	P₇₁	P₇₂	P₈₁	P₈₂	P₈₃	P₈₄	P₈₅	P₈₆
1	0.566 7	0.000 0	0.190 5	0.413 2	0.207 7	0.000 0	0.223 3	0.473 5
2	0.642 4	1.000 0	0.406 3	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.201 1	0.325 0

区间	[0.116~0.128)	[0.128~0.140)	[0.140~0.152)	[0.152~0.164)	[0.164~0.176)	[0.176~0.188]
等级	1	2	3	4	5	6

样本	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
综合评价值	0.141	0.136	0.138	0.188	0.131	0.116	0.167	0.132	0.120
等级	3	2	2	6	2	1	5	2	1
样本	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
综合评价值	0.140	0.128	0.135	0.140	0.140	0.140	0.141	0.141	0.120
等级	3	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	1
样本	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27
综合评价值	0.163	0.150	0.138	0.176	0.126	0.135	0.137	0.132	0.133
等级	4	3	2	6	1	2	2	2	2
样本	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
综合评价值	0.127	0.171	0.165	0.120	0.139	0.139	0.156	0.126	0.154
等级	1	5	5	1	2	2	4	1	4
样本	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45
综合评价值	0.158	0.141	0.124	0.127	0.147	0.138	0.141	0.138	0.138
等级	4	3	1	1	3	2	3	2	2
样本	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54
综合评价值	0.168	0.138	0.156	0.147	0.128	0.173	0.121	0.173	0.134
等级	5	2	4	3	2	5	1	5	2
样本	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63
综合评价值	0.142	0.159	0.123	0.148	0.123	0.141	0.162	0.128	0.177
等级	3	4	1	3	1	3	4	2	6
样本	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72
综合评价值	0.126	0.134	0.142	0.127	0.147	0.151	0.147	0.143	0.155
等级	1	2	3	1	3	3	3	3	4
样本	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81
综合评价值	0.121	0.155	0.126	0.142	0.156	0.151	0.153	0.147	0.183
等级	1	4	1	3	4	3	4	3	6
样本	82	83	84	85	86
综合评价值	0.176	0.139	0.124	0.134	0.138
等级	6	2	1	2	2

指标	P₁₁	P₁₂	P₁₃	P₁₄	P₁₅	P₁₆	P₁₇	P₂₁	P₂₂	P₂₃
权重	0.022 1	0.029 4	0.024 7	0.026 9	0.039 9	0.026 7	0.052 8	0.004 9	0.022 4	0.027 1
指标	P₃₁	P₃₂	P₃₃	P₃₄	P₃₅	P₃₆	P₄₁	P₄₂	P₄₃	P₄₄
权重	0.036 9	0.024 5	0.008 5	0.027 9	0.018 7	0.012 7	0.032 1	0.044 0	0.014 1	0.041 0
指标	P₄₅	P₄₆	P₄₇	P₄₈	P₅₁	P₅₂	P₅₃	P₆₁	P₆₂	P₆₃
权重	0.013 8	0.016 6	0.014 7	0.019 9	0.033 0	0.035 9	0.011 4	0.035 3	0.018 4	0.036 6
指标	P₇₁	P₇₂	P₈₁	P₈₂	P₈₃	P₈₄	P₈₅	P₈₆
权重	0.048 3	0.032 2	0.032 4	0.015 3	0.023 4	0.026 4	0.022 4	0.027 0