合成部队多阶段作战任务成功概率仿真评估

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2021.03.21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

考虑战场环境和战时装备维修保障评估合成部队多阶段作战任务成功概率, 对于辅助合成部队作战任务规划和装备维修保障决策具有重要的现实意义。在分析合成部队装备和合成部队装备维修保障模式的基础上, 构建了战时合成部队多阶段任务剖面; 通过对合成部队作战过程的分析, 提出了战时合成部队各阶段任务成功要求; 充分考虑合成部队多作战单元任务的协同性、合成部队装备的多样性及其战时随机共因失效(random common cause failure, RCCF)、战场环境下敌方火力打击和阶段任务时间的随机性、换件修理时间的不确定性等复杂因素, 利用蒙特卡罗仿真(Monte Carlo simulation, MCS)原理给出了合成部队多阶段作战任务成功概率评估的详细仿真流程, 并通过算例进行仿真和结果分析。研究结果表明:本文模型可用于合成部队多阶段作战任务成功概率评估和战斗阶段持续时间优化, 并为战时合成部队备件携行方案优化奠定了模型基础。

关键词: 合成部队, 作战任务, 任务成功概率, 装备维修保障, 随机共因失效, 蒙特卡罗仿真

Abstract:

Considering the battlefield environment and equipment maintenance support in wartime, it is of great practical significance to evaluate the success probability of phased combat mission of the synthetic force for supporting combat mission planning and equipment maintenance support decision-making. Based on the analysis of equipment and the equipment maintenance support mode of the synthetic force, the phased mission profile of the synthetic force during wartime is established. The mission success requirements in each phase of the synthetic force at wartime are put forward through analysis of the combat process of the synthetic force. Next, the success probability evaluation process of the phased combat mission of the synthetic force is described in detail using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach, where some complex factors, such as the tasks synergy of multi combat units in synthetic forces, the diversity of equipments in synthetic forces and their random common cause failure (RCCF) during wartime, the randomness of enemy fire strikes and mission duration under battlefield environment, and the uncertainty of replacement repair time are considered fully. Finally, the simulation and result analysis are carried out through an analytical example. The study results show that the proposed approach can be used to evaluate the success probability of the phased combat mission of the synthetic force and optimize the duration of the battle phase, and it also lays a model foundation for the optimization of spare parts carrying the scheme of the synthetic force in wartime.

Key words: synthetic force, combat mission, mission success probability, equipment maintenance support, random common cause failure (RCCF), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)

中图分类号:

王双川, 贾希胜, 胡起伟, 曹文斌, 马云飞. 合成部队多阶段作战任务成功概率仿真评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(3): 763-772.

Shuangchuan WANG, Xisheng JIA, Qiwei HU, Wenbin CAO, Yunfei MA. Success probability simulation evaluation of phased combat mission of the synthetic force[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 43(3): 763-772.

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